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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Autumn 2014 & Winter 2014/15



 


To allow everyone the opportunity to be fully prepared for what is about to happen, we have reduced our snow risk dates and temperature forecast (Dec-Feb) for a limited time period only from £9.99 to £4.99 + the white Christmas betting report

NEW** UK & Ireland Significant Snow Risk Dates + Temperature Forecast (2 pages - Dec to Feb) £4.99

The following outlooks are based on our final and updated winter forecast information, along with temperature deviations and the expected number of significant snow days including potential dates for December to February.


NEW** White Christmas Betting Report 2014 £4.99

The White Christmas betting report offers information on a number of bets that are available as of now with various bookmakers in the high street/online.


UK & Ireland Full 2014/15 Winter Report Inc Iceland Volcano S02 Report (9 pages) £4.99


UK & Ireland November Report Inc Maps/Regions (4 pages) £4.99


UK & Ireland Spring 2015 Report (Uploaded November) £9.99


UK & Ireland Preliminary Summer 2015 Report (Uploaded November) £9.99


USA 2014/15 Winter Report (2 pages) $19.99


UK & Ireland 1 Year Full Subscription; Includes access to all month ahead/seasonal forecasts - NOW £9.99 (Normally £74.99 HERE)


UK & Ireland 3 Year Full Subscription; Includes access to all month ahead/seasonal forecasts - NOW £19.99 (Normally £124.99 HERE)


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The UK & Ireland Month Ahead Forecasts Include:

4-6 pages inc news related features and climate research information that is not available via the site (issued 1-2 weeks ahead). Also includes a forecast breakdown and maps for specific regions in three separate parts + additional free updates throughout the month.

The UK & Ireland Seasonal Forecasts Include:

Several pages of detailed information and climate/weather forecasts that are not available via the site (issued no later than 150 days ahead of the start to the specific season). Also includes any news related features and analysis of climate research information + additional free updates throughout that forecasting period.

The UK & Ireland Full Subscriptions Include:

Access to the above forecasts for the duration of your chosen subscription within our members login area (with no obligation to renew). The full subscribers/members area also includes a national week ahead forecast/climate section + news related features and climate research information.

Individual forecast purchases will be delivered by email - subscribers will receive a username and password to the members login area.

Some of our clients include:




 

A Much Anticipated & Significant Pattern Change Ahead! + Snow Update


It has recently turned somewhat colder and more seasonal of late, despite those who want to keep shouting 'mild' from the rooftops and titles of their weather updates. The high upper temperatures that have been projected in various model runs have not been reflected in mild conditions on the actual surface, and colder conditions have been somewhat more prevalent since last week. Sunday evening also experienced some rather cold conditions that brought temperatures down to and below freezing, with some dense fog patches developing in places, despite earlier indications from others for some well above-average temperatures within this period. High upper temperatures in the model runs do not necessarily mean we will experience mild temperatures at the surface, in fact, the opposite can be expected under present conditions with more in the way of developing fog and frosts. Temperatures of late have therefore, not been mild, but more near-average with some chilly nights and dense fog patches thrown in for good measure.


However, we have lacked the wintry weather and some potentially even colder weather to accompany these cooler conditions during the second half of November to date from our six month ahead seasonal forecast, due to other parts of Europe being relatively mild for the time of the year. At present, we have a strong blocking pattern and the type of flow we have been experiencing would normally have resulted in some even colder conditions than at present and some potentially widespread snow events at times. However, the strong blocking pattern has also held back a 'major' Atlantic onslaught and westerly based flow that was indicated by many other forecasters for this period and into the meteorological winter within their long-range projections.


Our update from last week stated that there would be some major changes within the various computer models and their forecasts, and this is exactly what occurred.


A large number of the main computer models are now consistently incorporating high pressure into the Arctic regions, and this will eventually divert the jet stream southwards across the UK and Ireland.


The following Daily Express article from almost two weeks earlier also stated the following:


Mr Madden said: “The important pieces are now becoming grouped together to form blocking episodes throughout the SECOND HALF of NOVEMBER and the upcoming WINTER PERIOD. “This is reflected upon with the obliterated Polar Vortex and the downward trend of the 'excessively abnormal' Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, due to recent stratospheric warming and higher than normal pressure across the Arctic region.


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/534304/Winter-weather-forecast-UK-heavy-snow-months-polar-vortex


This will not only result in some even colder weather throughout the final days of November and into December, but it will also significantly increase the risk of some widespread snow events as we progress throughout this period (even to parts of the south, which is rare this early within the season/December). However, the main computer models will have to get the 'slightly' unsettled weather for some parts in the coming days out of their system, before they will recognise this significant pattern change in time for the start of the proper meteorological winter. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) will also see some imminent changes in the next several days, which will then be reflected in the various model runs too.


The following Daily Star article from Friday 21st November also stated in reference to this:


Exacta Weather's James Madden added: "A much anticipated colder and more wintry spell of weather is likely as we progress throughout November and into December."



An additional Daily Express article also stated the following in reference to this:


James Madden, who warned of the risk of a particularly severe winter in September (earlier to subscribers), today reiterated the message to prepare for a major big freeze. Mr Madden said: “A much anticipated colder and more wintry spell of weather is likely as we progress throughout the latter part of NOVEMBER and into DECEMBER.

“Even though the computer models are sheepish on showing this as a certainty right now, there has been enough signals to identify a high possibility of a blocking pattern developing within this period. “This will bring the increased risk of a significantly colder spell of weather, and the first widespread snow event of the season within the above period".


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/537436/UK-weather-USA-cold-arctic-temperatures-hit-Britain


Taking all factors into consideration, and what we have seen within the main models of late, even colder weather and widespread snow is on the way during the coming weeks. The snow a little later than originally anticipated within our initial autumn forecast, but nevertheless, it will certainly not be the wet, mild and windy picture that has been painted from elsewhere, and within a much shorter time frame than our original six month ahead suggestions.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11220184/Met-Office-says-winter-will-be-wetter-and-windier-than-usual.html


A repeat of last winter is therefore, OFF the cards, as we are in a very different position for what is likely to be a colder and snowier than average winter.


Our detailed winter forecast also expects these conditions to become potentially more severe at times later in the winter period (as our forecast has always stated + nothing about USA snow hitting us). Nearly every other forecaster followed the lead of the Met Office + the leading seasonal models for a mild, wet and windy theme/repeat of last year. However, Exacta Weather stood firm and said that this would not be the case. The fact other forecasters are starting to suggest that these changes could occur, is a clear sign they are now also starting to recognise what is on the horizon, despite their earlier indications for a repeat of last year.


For more detailed information, you can also access the full UK & Ireland winter reports (now 50% off), the significant snow-risk dates + temperature forecast (very high confidence rating for December snow dates), the White Christmas betting report, and the full UK & Ireland December report (full December report will be uploaded to the member's area shortly).


http://www.exactaweather.com/Buy_Forecasts.html


UPDATE ADDED: Monday 24th November 2014 (18:26) - James Madden




 


An Unsettled Westerly Flow - Really? + Winter Update


Last week, the Met Office and many other forecasters suggested that we would be in an unsettled westerly flow for this week (for those who remember reading their forecasts). However, Exacta Weather suggested that this pattern would not be maintained and that an easterly flow would be more likely to develop within this period across the UK (in various Facebook postings and in our reports to subscribers). We are now in an easterly flow for this week, and the Met Office give this their lowest confidence rating of occurrence at just 10% last week.


It says a lot for their wet and windy winter forecast for the next three months.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11202650/Millions-for-the-Met-Office-to-carry-on-getting-it-wrong.html

It will now begin to turn progressively cooler throughout the remainder of November with the gradual increase of fog and frosts + with the ever increasing risk for a widespread snow event during the final third of November and into the early part of December (don't worry the models will catch up and expect some big forecast changes from others for the remainder of this period).


The models will flip and flop from bringing in blocking/colder weather to being sheepish about it, before agreeing on a much colder picture 'in the second half of November'. Most of the time they don't even recognise it properly until the last minute, as with November/December 2010, and March 2013 all forecast from several months in advance via Exacta Weather @ http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html


Exacta Weather analyses patterns and incorporates other factors/calculations from several months ahead, and then we have to wait for the models to agree; we are not psychic and can't go right exactly the 15th November will bring these changes, but we can, for example, give a good ballpark figure (this is the weather, and we also need to allow for some deviations in exact timing - although sometimes the dates can be exact, and these are reflected upon in confidence ratings to Exacta Weather users).


It is also very important to remember that large emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) have been emitted in Iceland this year - which are similar to those of some very large-scale eruptions (which have been known to alter our climate/winter patterns in the past + something we covered extensively earlier in the year).

Others will say/wrongly assume that we did not experience an explosive eruption that entered the stratosphere. However, we don't require an explosive eruption as the stratosphere is much lower at higher latitudes such as Iceland, and in comparison to other parts of the world. Combine this with the other factors we have covered, and we have even more weighting towards a cold and snowy winter for the UK & Ireland).

A lot of people seem to be forgetting this or disregarding it altogether, and the models will certainly not have incorporated it within their projections. Do they not remember November and December 2010 after the Eyjafjallajokull eruption?


UPDATE ADDED: Monday 17th November 2014 (11:06am) - James Madden




Unsettled Theme + Winter/Blocking On The Horizon For The UK & Ireland 

This week will see areas of low pressure pushing in across the country and keep things rather unsettled for many, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country. The unsettled weather will also be accompanied by some rather windy conditions within this period, and many areas can expect to see some long periods of rain or frequent showers at times. It will also feel rather cool during the periods of unsettled weather for many.

The 6 month ahead autumn forecast to subscribers for this period also stated:

The start to November is likely to see a number of deep and large scale low pressure systems attacking our shores. This would see any wintry weather developing more to the north of the country and periods of heavy rain and strong winds developing elsewhere, in particular, in parts to the far south of the country, where temperatures could possibly feature at more near the seasonal average.

The following Daily Express article from 13 days earlier also stated for this period:

"Some spikes of milder conditions may also develop within this period, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country, and these will be accompanied by some rather windy and quite stormy conditions at times."


 The important pieces are now becoming grouped together to form blocking episodes throughout the second half of November and the upcoming winter period. This is reflected upon with the obliterated Polar Vortex and the downward trend of the 'excessively abnormal' Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, due to recent stratospheric warming and higher than normal pressure across the Arctic region.

 

The following Daily Express article from 13 days earlier also stated for the second half of November:

“As we progress throughout NOVEMBER, it will begin to turn gradually cooler, in particular, WITHIN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH as BLOCKING becomes a more prominent feature and the jet stream diverts further south.

“This will be due to expanding cold from the Arctic region, and this will also allow for the development of some much colder intrusions of air and snow for the UK."


UPDATE ADDED: MONDAY 10TH NOVEMBER 2014 (08:10) - JAMES MADDEN



An 'Excessively Abnormal' Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) & Negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - An Indicative Sign Of Big Things Coming To The UK & Ireland? Cold/Snow/Blocking


The exact signals that we need to be seeing for some even colder weather and widespread snow events throughout the second half of November, and into early/mid December are now starting to fall in place - with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) both doing exactly what they should be at this stage and in terms of our 5-6 month ahead calculations/forecasts.


The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are closely related and affect temperature patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Factors such as the Siberian snow cover, and sudden stratospheric warming relate to these negative trends.


 

When the AO is in its negative phase (as above), it allows for an easier intrusion of cold Arctic air to lower latitudes. When the closely related NAO is in a negative phase (as above), it allows for cold easterly winds and cold winters in Europe, with a blocking situation that our forecasting parameters favour over Western Europe.


The impressive Siberian snow cover for this year also offers a high correlation for a negative AO throughout much of the upcoming winter and into next spring. We can therefore expect a significant amount of colder intrusions and prolonged diversions of the jet stream/blocking within this period.


If we look at the latest AO readings, it is really starting to trend towards an 'excessively abnormal' negative value from around the middle of November, and this will also be in response to the recent stratospheric warming over Siberia. The excessively abnormal value from the AO index is also important, as it indicates that higher than normal pressure is present over the Polar region and to what extent of cold we are looking at throughout this winter, and in terms of a big event like December 2010 or March 2013 (which were both forecast from several months in advance for the specific dates within our previous long range forecasts). When the AO/NAO turns negative like this, it becomes a good time to prepare for a number of Arctic intrusions and the potential for some widespread snow events (even to lower levels) across the UK and Ireland throughout the second half of November and into December.


Now this is something that the models have only just started to pick up on in the last 24-48 hours (the reason why there has been some opposition from other forecasters with our November/winter forecast). So be prepared for some backtracking from other forecasters who said this wouldn't happen. Unfortunately, when you have no other methodology or little understanding of forecasting the weather other than model watching, there is always the risk that it could come back and bite you at a later date.


So be prepared for falsified claims that we have said the coldest winter in 100 years is on the way or -27C in weeks as they backtrack - as subscribers know this has not been said in any of our reports.


As I also stated in one of the recent updates below, they do this out of fear and their own insecurity/inability to forecast long range weather events to their clients. They also choose to pass judgement on certain variables such as the headline alone (also very contradictory), without looking deeper into the content of what has actually been said within articles in "quotation marks" (the same and simplistic logic that they apply to their weather forecasting).


I even come across an article the other day from a competitor in Ireland that went as far as saying that we had said the coldest winter in 150 years. This is nothing but misleading drivel to make themselves feel or appear superior, and it is quite misleading information for the people who follow them too.


Another very recent example of our differing methodology to others + a colder than average November?


There are some indications that Bonfire Night could turn out to be the coldest of this century @ http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-bonfire-night-set-4564096 


Our UK & Ireland month ahead forecasts to subscribers from 10 days earlier also stated (when many models/other forecasters were indicating a mild and unsettled Bonfire Night):


This period will also begin to feel markedly cooler to what we have experienced throughout autumn to date. As we progress towards the middle part of this forecasting period (in or around bonfire night), there is the potential for a much colder flow of air to push in across the country and temperatures are likely to feature at a progressive near to below average within this period.


Temperatures are now also likely to fluctuate at near or below-average after Bonfire Night (not above-average or mild for the time of the year). If we then consider how things are likely to develop for the second half of November, it is now becoming very realistic that November will come in as a colder than the average month overall. Exacta Weather were the only ones that forecast this within our month ahead forecast to subscribers, and in advance of standard meteorology, as we don't rely on what computer models are indicating. However, every other forecaster who relies heavily upon computer models and have similar methodology to each other, indicated above-average temps for November as a whole, including the UK Met Office. In addition to this, our October month ahead forecast that was issued in advance of standard meteorology also opted for temperatures to be above-average for the month, but if you don't subscribe to our forecasts or listen to others with hidden agendas, then you won't know this.


Based on our differing methodology that has caused some variance among other forecasters/model watchers - the following information from our 5-6 month ahead forecast was provided voluntarily to various media for public consumption in relation to November/this winter in "quotation marks" only:


“Over the coming weeks and into NOVEMBER, it is likely to turn PROGRESSIVELY COLDER, even very cold at times, in particular, in parts of the north as northern BLOCKING becomes a somewhat more prominent feature. “This is likely to bring some significant snow across HIGHER GROUND within this period.


“A number of potentially very cold periods of weather and major snow events are likely to develop throughout this winter across large parts of the country, in particular, throughout the latter part of December and into January.


“The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/10, the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/11 which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.


“February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times."


(Published 10th October - when many said it would be mild until after Christmas).


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

Mr Madden warned to brace for a “shock to the system” with a “significant” snow event possible in weeks.

He said: “As we progress throughout NOVEMBER, it will begin to turn gradually cooler, in particular, WITHIN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH as BLOCKING becomes a more prominent feature and the jet stream diverts further south.

“This will be due to expanding cold from the Arctic region, and this will also allow for the development of some much colder intrusions of air and snow for the UK.

“Some of the snow events are likely to be quite significant with blizzards across HIGHER GROUND, and a number of potentially notable snow events are also possible across some lower levels within this PERIOD (NOVEMBER AS A WHOLE), in particular, in some exposed coastal areas to the north and west of the country.


“We are also likely to see the development of some widespread frosts and rather extensive fog patches across the country within this period, and this will come as quite a shock to what we have experienced throughout this autumn to date.

“However, some spikes of milder conditions may also develop within this period, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country, and these will be accompanied by some rather windy and quite stormy conditions at times.”


(Published 26th October - when many were forecasting a mild start to November/November as a whole).


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/528643/Winter-2014-weather-warning-snow-arctic-freezing-temperatures-forecast


He said: “As we progress throughout November, it is going to become gradually colder across many parts of Ireland, in particular from around the MID-MONTH POINT when it is likely to become exceptionally cold at times. “This early start to what is likely to be a harsh winter is also likely to be accompanied by a number of potentially widespread snow events within this period and into the start of December. He continued: “The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/2010, which was the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/2011, which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.


“However, the alternative and slightly more unfavourable scenario could see a winter period on a similar par to 2012/2013 developing, which would still support a colder and snowier than average winter throughout 2014/2015. “If any month could prove to be very severe or potentially record-breaking in terms of the cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop, then January looks like being the main contributor for this on current indications.” He added: “February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times."


(Published 29th October - when many were still forecasting a mild start to November/November as a whole).


http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-forecasters-predict-country-4529710


Netweather in particular, has had quite a lot to say about our winter forecast. However, they are now also forecasting a cold and snowy January due to a sudden stratospheric warming event within their preliminary winter forecast. It would also appear that they are quite uncertain about what is going to happen in the second half of November and into December.


Our forecast that was issued six months ahead of their forecast, and in every media article that we have appeared within over the last few months stated: January and into February could be particularly cold and snowy or potentially record-breaking due to an SSW event occurring.


The following media article from over 20 days in advance of the Netweather preliminary winter forecast release also stated:


“If any month could prove to be very severe or potentially record-breaking in terms of the cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop, then January looks like being the main contributor for this on current indications." 


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November


UPDATE ADDED: 5th November 2014 (08:32) - James Madden




There are many strong signals that support a big freeze/cold & snowy for the UK & Ireland this winter (please read below):

HUGE SIBERIAN SNOW COVER!!!

A strong indicator for a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) throughout December to March for the UK and Ireland is the extent of the Siberian snow cover in October. There is normally around 1 million square KM of snow cover at this point, in comparison to the massive 5 million square KM at present.

This is a very strong indicator for a negative AO this winter, which allows cold Arctic air to become displaced across the UK & Ireland + it also offers strong support of our 5-6 month ahead pre-calculations for this period.



October Pattern Index

This also supports a weak Polar Vortex and is likely to lead to a blocked winter pattern for the UK and Ireland. Unlike last year the current readings have recorded a negative value for every single day of October to date, some of which have been quite significant.

Solar Activity Levels - An area we have covered extensively

Solar activity levels and the number of 'earth directed solar flares' are also at a minimum, which is also likely to have a significant bearing on our winter weather patterns throughout this year.

S02 Emissions Iceland - Another area we have covered extensively

The large S02 (Sulphur dioxide) emissions from the volcanic activity in Iceland is also likely to contribute towards a much harsher winter throughout 2014/15. To date we have seen concentration levels similar to those of a large scale eruption, and it is these emissions that block out further sunlight to alter our climate and weather patterns. 




Autumn & Winter 2014/15 Update + Important Website Changes (below).

Important information from our 5 month ahead 2014/15 winter forecast is now available for public consumption via the following Daily Express article - for what is likely to be an inevitable very cold & snowy winter for the UK & Ireland @ http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

The article states the following from our long range forecast in "quotation marks" - which is of the very highest confidence within our forecasting parameters (please take important note of this):

“The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/10, the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/11 which experienced the coldest December in 100 years."

For the more in depth winter reports including major snow risk dates and what they actually state for the UK & Ireland - please see @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

The article also states from our long range forecast in "quotation marks"

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: “Over the coming weeks and into November, it is likely to turn progressively colder, even very cold at times, in particular, in parts of the north as northern blocking becomes a somewhat more prominent feature.

“This is likely to bring some significant snow across higher ground within this period."

A number of Arctic intrusions of cold air are likely during the latter part of October and into early November. This is likely to result in some significant snow across higher ground within this period. There may also be the increasing risk for some wintry showers or overnight snow to some lower levels than higher ground too - as indicated in what will then be the 6 month ahead autumn forecast.

Private Weather Companies

It's funny how a large number of private weather companies can pass judgement on something - but then claim that they can't offer an insight or any certainties in regard to what will happen this winter??? (very contradictory).

Unfortunately, they are too quick to forget their own involvement within articles and incorrect forecasts (short & long range) that Exacta Weather opposed and had no involvement within for:

1. 3 month spring heatwave (2014)



2. The hottest summer ever (2014 + 75% certainty)



3. Hot autumn + record-breaking October (2014)

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/october-heatwave-could-hit-record-4302563

They do this out of fear and their own insecurity/inability to forecast long range weather events to their clients. They also choose to pass judgement on certain variables such as the headline alone (also very contradictory), without looking deeper into the content of what has actually been said (the same and simplistic logic that they apply to their weather forecasting).

Do they do the same with their forecasts or their involvement with the above incorrect information that they provided for public consumption? No not at all! They hide them away and offer no insight as to where or why they went wrong!

However, they will be more than happy to feature within articles as certain weather events are staring us in the face throughout this winter (which anybody can do with little skill or knowledge of conventional meteorology).

It's a malicious and vindictive old world within the circle of weather forecasting... I wonder why?£?£

Autumn Storm Arrives - Almost On Cue

Our 5 month ahead autumn forecast stated that a major autumn storm would hit the UK for "in or around the 12th October".

It also stated to allow for a slight deviation in exact timing as this forecast was made from 5 months ahead. Earlier last week we experienced the following that made front page news (6 days earlier than suggested from 5 months ahead).



Global Cooling + Solar Science

There has recently been a large number of scientific articles over the past month in reference to Global Cooling (see below).

The title of our blog that dates back to 2009 is even called “Global Cooling & New Ice Age UK” - (Ice Age circulation patterns). All of these scientific statements were made when global warming still had a fairly tight stronghold upon the scientific and global community from the alarmists/Met Office (please feel free to read them - must click archives back to 2009) @ http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.youtube.com/user/ukweathergeek/videos

Aired on BBC One in December 2010 - When Global Warming was still in high belief + false claims of high solar activity to come from many other credible scientists/NASA


James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.”(Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).


Big Autumn Heatwave On The Way This Weekend?


The coming week will see things remaining rather unsettled as areas of low pressure bring periods of heavy rain and windy conditions to the country at times. An area of high pressure looks likely to ridge in across parts of the south later in the week, and this could bring some temporary settled weather and milder temperatures for a number of days, in particular, in parts of the south.

A simple and very short lived rebuild of high pressure as indicated in our UK & Ireland month ahead forecast to subscribers for this period - before a reversion back to very unsettled and much cooler conditions, which stated:

However, high pressure may make an attempt at building back in within this period at times, and this may result in some drier and sunnier intervals, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country at times within the period of the 11th - 20th October.

Unless you are a subscriber to the full forecasts, you do not know what we have forecast for certain periods in advance of conventional meteorology - not the manipulated version from others with hidden agendas.

IMPORTANT LEGAL STATEMENT + WEBSITE CHANGES

Only certain information on particular weather events and climate will be posted on this page in future (probably on a weekly basis). The short and long range weather forecasts will now only be available to subscribers of our forecasts. Distribution and application of our forecast information or unauthorised use of the term Exacta Weather is strictly prohibited, and legal action will be taken against those who choose to do so, which may also give rise to a claim for damages through our legal representation. Any press/media/commercial usage of our forecast information must now also be approved by ourselves.

Our legal representation is currently taking further action and serving a desist notice to a number of certain individuals for trademark infringement of Exacta Weather, passing off, defamation and negligent misstatement - as outlined in the following terms and conditions of our website


UPDATE ADDED: MONDAY 13TH OCTOBER 2014 (15:38) - James Madden



Indian Summer/Autumn Warmth Continues - But For How Long?

Another mainly fine day with developing sunny periods has seen maximum temperatures ranging throughout 24-25C in parts of the south on Sunday (well above the seasonal average for the time of the year). High pressure is also likely to stay dominant throughout next week, and this will result in some further mild to very warm temperatures for the time of the year and decent periods of sunshine.

The following Telegraph article also quoted our 150 day ahead autumn forecast in reference to this:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: "A significant area of high pressure is likely to build in across many parts of the country towards the end of the month and into the early part of October, resulting in some even warmer and potentially very hot weather for the time of the year."


However, the warm weather could trigger off some potentially heavy and thundery showers in places as we progress throughout this week, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country. This may also bring the small risk of some localised surface flooding in these parts, due to some possible absorption problems because of the very dry conditions that we have experienced of late + in addition to the recent thunderstorms/flooding below.

The following Daily Express article from Monday 22nd September also stated:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said warm weather over the next few weeks could trigger thunderstorms.

He said: "September and into early October may offer some bursts of warmth and Indian summer type weather. "However, it is also likely to become unsettled at times within this period and any periods of developing warmth within this time frame is likely to be replaced with some potentially vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country, where some localised flooding events may occur."

The 5 month ahead UK and Ireland autumn forecast also stated (issued to subscribers in May):

The 2014 Autumn period is likely to experience a more near average to mild/warm theme at times to begin with, in particular, throughout the first half of the season (September to early/mid October). September and into early October may therefore still offer some bursts of warmth and Indian summer type weather. However, it is also likely to be rather unsettled at times within this period and any periods of developing warmth within this time frame is likely to be replaced with some unsettled weather or vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country, where some localised flooding events may occur.
 
The remainder of the week will also see some largely dry weather with periods of warm sunshine developing for many parts of the UK and Ireland. This will also see temperatures remaining at well above the seasonal average and a continuation of the autumn warmth/Indian summer type weather.

However, some frontal activity will bring some rain to parts of the far north and west at times during the middle part of the week, although this is likely to dissipate and become lighter natured in any progression to other parts of the country as high pressure remains in control.

The latter part of next week may see low pressure becoming somewhat more influential on our weather patterns, in particular, in some parts to the north and west of the country, and in particular in parts of Ireland. This would result in some potentially unsettled and wet weather for these parts, with a noticeable drop in temperatures too. However, some parts to the south and east of the country would remain more settled and on the warm side due to the influence of high pressure. It may also be possible for this high pressure to be more influential across other parts of the country within this specified period. This would restrict any unsettled weather to parts of the far north and west of the country/Ireland, or prevent it from making much of a widespread impact at all, or maybe until the following week (a tricky one to call overall).

A recent Mirror article also stated the following in reference to this:


James Madden, meteorologist with Exacta Weather, said: “High pressure is likely to build in from the south of the country in the early part of October“This is likely to bring some further Indian summer-type weather and mild to warm conditions within this period for several days at the very least, in particular in southern and eastern parts of the country. “Although some areas will still be at risk of seeing some rain and showers at times, some further drier weather and decent spells of sunshine are likely to develop once again.” But he warned: “The middle part of October, possibly a little earlier, will see a major reversal of these mild and settled conditions. “Low pressure will become a more dominant feature and conditions will become largely unsettled, with above-average rainfall amounts across many parts of Ireland.

The full UK & Ireland October forecast including weather maps is also available in the following link @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Ire_Month_Ahead.html

*NEW* Winter 2014/15 Update - UK & Ireland

One of the leading seasonal outlook models for long range weather and climate (Japan) is now also indicating a very cold winter for the UK and Ireland.


Our 5 month ahead winter report 1 issued to subscribers also stated in reference to this:

Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line (also includes major snow risk dates) @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 28th September 2014 (18:42) - James Madden





UK & Ireland Winter Weather Forecast 2014/15

Our UK & Ireland winter 2014/15 forecast defines a particular period of exceptional cold and major snow events due to sudden stratospheric warming and jet stream displacement in the link provided below.

Also includes an alternative volcanic winter report for the possibility of a major volcanic eruption in Iceland.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

 
Exacta Weather have also accurately forecast sudden stratospheric warming and jet stream displacement events from several months in advance for the exact dates for the coldest December in 100 years (2010) the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S. winter in 100 years (2013/14).

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/spring2013forecast.pdf

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/378966/Britain-set-for-10-day-freeze-as-temperatures-plunge


http://www.exactaweather.com/USA_Long_Range_Weather_Fore.html

 High Pressure Dominating + Bardabunga Volcano Update (Iceland)

The start to September has seen a fairly warm start to the month with temperatures at several degrees above the seasonal average in places. Maximum temperatures would also have been much higher throughout the last week, had it not been for the unfortunate and quite extensive cloud cover that developed. However, the warm weather and well above-average temperatures are set to continue into a second week as high pressure dominates throughout next week. This will bring a largely dry, warm and settled theme for much of the country, with more in the way of ample periods of pleasant sunshine, despite recent indications for an unsettled week in projections from the BBC/Met Office. Towards the end of the week, we could be looking at temperatures reaching the mid 20s in some places at the very least as high pressure remains securely in control.

The following media article in reference to high pressure across the UK & Ireland from the 29th August also stated:

“It will gradually become much warmer as high pressure becomes a more dominant feature and builds in across many parts of the country. “The widespread warmth is also set to last over a minimum of several days to two weeks at the very least."


However, a change in wind direction for the Iceland region could bring an increased risk of some residual volcanic debris and hinder air conditions across parts of the UK and Ireland throughout next week, in particular, across parts of Scotland. This could be a cause for concern if significant ash is emitted within this period, or if a major eruption occurs at Bardabunga in Iceland (which must be considered as a probability with some weighting, due to the ongoing seismic activity and the magnitude of the recorded earthquakes to date).

+ High Sulphur Dioxide Warning - Bardabunga Volcano (Iceland)

Below is a recent satellite image showing clouds of sulphur dioxide from the Bardabunga volcano in Iceland. The interpretable information of sulphur dioxide (SO2) concentration and distribution is called the vertical column density (VCD), which is then given as a Dobson Unit (DU). Strong and explosive volcanic eruptions can result in Dobson Units of 10+. As you can see from the satellite data below and the red shading, recent measurements have shown the emissions almost approaching 10 Dobson Units. However, it must be noted that we have not seen a strong or explosive eruption from the Bardabunga volcano in Iceland as of yet, and the current activity is only 'effusive'. Should an 'explosive' eruption occur, then this clearly demonstrates the overall potential for a large emission of sulphur dioxide (which alters our climate and blocks out sunlight).



The alternative volcano report issued to subscribers in the link below on the 22nd August also stated the following:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

One scenario to consider is for a major eruption to occur that perforates the surface of the glacier. This type of eruption would allow for a significant emission of volcanic ash into the atmosphere. The amount of sulphur dioxide emitted would then be a major concern in terms of reflecting sunlight and cooling the earth/various regions.


UPDATE ADDED: 7th September 2014 (11:35) - James Madden


UK & Ireland Final Summer Forecast Review 2014

The Met Office are now confirming a more near average summer with temperatures and rainfall close to normal levels for the season (as suggested in our long range 2014 summer forecast issued in early April to subscribers + below media links from the Daily Mirror x 2)

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/cool-wet-august-ends-fairly-average-summer/

The Met Office also state that rainfall during the last few days of August will mean the summer will be slightly wetter than average (our forecast always stated that August would be wetter than average, with June and July likely to be more near to above average).

The following Daily Mirror articles from the 5th and 7th May also stated the following:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-britain-heading-first-3499753 (5th May)

James Madden of Exacta Weather said: "Overall, the long-range summer forecast looks mixed. It's not going to be a wash-out but it wont be as good as last year."

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irelands-summer-weather-end-abruptly-3509824 (7th May)

But, Mr Madden, whose team predicted last year’s record-breaking summer, said there was no change to the forecast he announced last month.

He added: “It will be a more near-average summer in terms of overall temperatures and overall rainfall amounts.”

The Met Office have also confirmed no major heat-waves for June and July in the link below, despite earlier indications for one of the hottest summers ever from top climate scientists and themselves.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2014/summer

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/weather-summer-2014-to-be-hottest-on-record-9122575.html

http://home.bt.com/news/uknews/britain-set-for-hot-summer-says-met-office-11363910123948

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5679242/Met-Office-too-embarrassed-to-tell-us-its-expecting-sizzling-hot-summer.html

Our long range summer forecast also stated the following in reference to El Nino predictions and the hottest summer ever:

There has also recently been reports from scientific experts in reference to the hottest summer ever occurring during 2014 on the basis of El Nino weather patterns. Unfortunately, these predictions do not consider how solar activity can influence our weather patterns and other major factors such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in relation to the frequency and strength of El Nino and La Nina episodes. The PDO identifies warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean (largest ocean in the world) on a monthly basis, with each cool or warm phase generally lasting for around 20-30 years in duration. We are currently in a 'COLD' phase of the PDO, of which La Nina episodes (cooling) are more prevalent and stronger, whereas El Nino (warming) are less infrequent and weaker overall (current indications therefore over-hype the El Nino conditions in current model suggestions). However, El Nino (warming) episodes will still occur, but they will be less infrequent and much weaker in their overall and predicted duration.

Our long range summer forecast to subscribers also identified exactly when the warm to hot spells of weather would occur + in an even earlier article in the Daily Express from the 7th April (before the above Daily Mirror articles):

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/469046/UK-weather-latest-Britain-set-for-THREEMONTHS-
of-sun-in-mega-heatwave


James Madden said: “Some periods of warm and settled weather can be expected throughout this summer – in particular in the latter part of July and into the first half of August when many parts of the country could see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 20s 'AT TIMES'.

“Some warmer incursions of weather are also plausible from the mid-month points in both June and July, in particular, in the southern half of the country.

Conclusion

A generally settled theme and a prominent and widespread warm/hot spell with temperatures generally ranging in the mid to high 20s developed across large parts of the country throughout the latter part of July + it remained warm into the first part of August with temperatures reaching 25C in parts of the UK every day up to the 8th.

A warmer incursion of weather was also noted in mid-June when temperatures reached 26.8C in parts of the south on the 13th and 27C later in parts of both Scotland and Ireland on the 18th. A further incursion of warmer weather was also noted in mid-July when temperatures reached 32C in parts of the south on the 18th.



Solar Activity Update - Impact On Upcoming Autumn/Winter? + Weekly Update

Solar activity has currently took a nose-dive to very low levels and this is likely to have a significant bearing on our autumn and winter weather patterns later this year/early next year. At present there are only a number of tiny sunspots on the visible solar disc and we recently experienced our first spotless day in a number of years, something that is likely to become prominent throughout the coming years and decades due to a less magnetically active sun.



IMAGE COURTESY OF SOHO/NASA 21st July (2014)

We have already seen the weakest solar max in at least a century, something that was indicated as a possibility for solar cycle 24 many years earlier via Exacta Weather/our YouTube channel here. These early and recent indications do not bode well and in consideration of how far we are away from the next solar minimum, and the likely impact that this will have on the majority of our future summer and in particular, winter weather patterns.



EXAMPLE OF HOW THE SOLAR DISC SHOULD LOOK DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM AND SOLAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS (ABOVE)

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Autumn 2014 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Weather models don't consider solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns between now and then, and this could well be something that they really won't pick up on until much further down the line.

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line.

The UK, Ireland and U.S. Autumn/Fall & Winter forecasts for 2014/15 are available to view in the links below:



This type of analysis has also allowed previous long range forecasts published via Exacta Weather to identify the coldest December in 100 years (2010), the wettest summer in 100 years (2012), the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S winter in 100 years (2013/14).

The coldest December in 100 years (2010)

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.”(Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).

The wettest summer in 100 years (2012) - Issued in early summer 2012

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of the summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/326685/Summer-starts-in-September

The coldest March in 130 years + one of the snowiest ever (2013) + Copy of Spring forecast 2013 issued to subscribers from 5 months ahead

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said more wintry showers in March could make it the “snowiest on record”. He said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time. “There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”


The coldest USA winter in 100 years (2013/14) + Copy of U.S. Winter forecast 2013/14 issued to subscribers from 9 months ahead


(All of these weather 100 year weather events also hold major significance for our future climate and weather patterns)

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 21st July 2014 (17:46) - James Madden