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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Spring & Summer 2015



 

Get full access to our premium weather forecasts and detailed weather outlooks for the UK & Ireland

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Exacta Weather is not government funded and relies on user support through forecast subscriptions at a minimal cost to users. We don't posses multi-million pound supercomputers, and simply have access to our own individual model that we have built from scratch. This model also incorporates solar methodology and other major factors that we consider to be important for forecasting long and short range weather events, and without what we have analysed repeatedly as a global warming bias from elsewhere. This has helped us to correctly identify and define a number of major 100 year weather events from several months in advance of occurrence, such as; the coldest December in 100 years (2010), the coldest March in 130 years (2013), and the wettest summer in 100 years (2012) + a large number of major and much shorter range weather events such as; heatwaves, major storms and snow events that were also forecast in advance of conventional meteorology and almost alternative/opposing forecasts from elsewhere until nearer the time. As is the nature of weather forecasting or a 'forecast', some forecasts have been less accurate than others. However, our seasonal forecasts attain an overall and honest success rate of around 70% over the past 5 years, and since our first forecasts were issued in 2010.

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UK & Ireland 6 Month Full Subscription; Includes access to all month ahead/seasonal forecasts - £5.99

6 x UK & Ireland month ahead forecasts (April to October reports - includes 4-6 pages and a forecast breakdown/maps for specific regions)

UK & Ireland national week ahead forecast

UK & Ireland spring 2015 forecast (March to May - available now including details of first major warm spell in 2015)

UK & Ireland preliminary summer 2015 forecast (June to August - available now including details of expected warm/hot periods, flood risk locations/dates, solar activity and ocean/El Nino forecast).

UK & Ireland final summer 2015 forecast (released in April)

UK & Ireland preliminary autumn 2015 (released in April/May)

UK & Ireland preliminary winter 2015/16 + solar activity report (released in April/May)

UK & Ireland final autumn 2015 forecast (released in summer)

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UK & Ireland 12 Month Full Subscription; Includes access to all month ahead/seasonal forecasts - £9.99

12 x UK & Ireland month ahead forecasts (April 2015 to April 2016 reports - includes 4-6 pages and a forecast breakdown/maps for specific regions)

UK & Ireland national week ahead forecast

UK & Ireland spring 2015 forecast (March to May - available now including details of first major warm spell in 2015)

UK & Ireland preliminary summer 2015 forecast (June to August - available now including details of expected warm/hot periods, flood risk locations/dates, solar activity and ocean/El Nino forecast).

UK & Ireland final summer 2015 forecast (released in April)

UK & Ireland preliminary autumn 2015 forecast (released in May)

UK & Ireland preliminary winter 2015/16 + solar activity report (released in May)

UK & Ireland final autumn 2015 forecast (released in summer)

UK & Ireland final winter 2015/16 forecast (released in autumn)

UK & Ireland snow risk dates for December to February (released in autumn)

UK & Ireland preliminary spring 2016 forecast (released in November/December)

UK & Ireland preliminary summer 2016 forecast (released in December)

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The UK & Ireland Month Ahead Forecasts Include:

4-6 pages inc news related features and climate research information that is not available via the site (issued 1-2 weeks ahead). Also includes a forecast breakdown and maps for specific regions in three separate parts + additional free updates throughout the month.

The UK & Ireland Seasonal Forecasts Include:

Several pages of detailed information and climate/weather forecasts that are not available via the site (issued no later than 150 days ahead of the start to the specific season). Also includes any news related features and analysis of climate research information + additional free updates throughout that forecasting period.

The UK & Ireland Full Subscriptions Include:

Access to the above forecasts for the duration of your chosen subscription within our members login area (with no obligation to renew). The full subscribers/members area also includes a national week ahead forecast/climate section + news related features and climate research information.

 


Spring Weather To Date + Easter Forecast/April & May


The following information was published via the subscribers area on Monday 30th March 2015:


The first part of the working week will continue with a rather unsettled and cold theme for many parts of the country as low pressure and quite strong winds dominate proceedings. It will also be cold enough for some of these showers to turn to snow across parts of the north, in particular, across higher ground. There is also the risk for some sleet and snow showers to develop at some much lower levels in some parts to the north and west of the UK and certain parts of Ireland at times within this period.


Looking ahead to the Easter period, and Good Friday is likely to see a continuation of the cool and unsettled theme for many, as an extensive area of low pressure passes eastwards through the country on a cold northerly feed. This will also bring some further snow across higher ground in parts of the north throughout Friday and into Saturday, with the potential for some wintry showers to develop across other parts of the country, in particular, in some parts to the north and the west of the country throughout the early part of Good Friday. Saturday is also likely to remain unsettled with some rather subdue temperatures for the time of the year in places.


However, there is likely to be some improvements in the overall picture as we head into the second half of the Easter weekend and Easter Monday. High pressure will start to gradually build and become a more prominent feature throughout Easter Sunday and into the following week (starting the 6th April), and this will bring a somewhat drier and more settled theme for many, in particular, in some parts to the west. However, the positioning of the high pressure is unlikely to deliver any notably warm or hot surface conditions within this period, and there is even a risk of it remaining rather cool, cloudy and unsettled at times in some places, despite a more settled theme overall. Temperatures will therefore approach average values at the very best in some places from this developing scenario, with some parts of the far south experiencing the best of the more pleasant and settled periods of any respectable warmth for the time of the year in the developing sunshine.


The mornings and evenings will also feel particularly chilly for many under these conditions within this period and into the following week, and there is the substantial risk for some quite sharp frosts to develop for the time of the year under clearer skies. Unfortunately, there is no sign of a 'heatwave' or any 'prolonged periods' of widespread warm temperatures as of yet. The majority of April is likely to see temperatures ranging at near to below average for many, with some further incursions of cool northerly and easterly winds. This will also bring some additional wintry conditions and rather unseasonable weather in places at times. However, the overall prospects for May look much brighter, and there is a good chance for some much warmer temperatures and more pleasant weather to develop at times throughout the final month of spring (as indicated it what will be our 150 day ahead seasonal forecast).


Further details and specific regions/maps are available in the subscribers UK & Ireland spring forecast (March to May) + in the April month ahead PDF forecast (this will be uploaded to the members login area later today) + additional details on other undisclosed weather events throughout April and into May

Is there any potential warm spells coming soon/in April???


The following article from early March stated the following in reference to the second half of March:


And the experts are split over the outlook for the rest of the month.


James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, delivered a pessimistic verdict saying: “We will see a return to some much colder and more wintry conditions as we progress towards the second half of March, in particular, in some parts to the North and East. “Colder air from an Arctic outset will start to filter in across the country, and this will come as quite a shock to many as temperatures plunge from near-average to below-average.”


However Leon Brown, forecaster for The Weather Channel UK, believes that conditions will improve from the end of next week.


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/562691/Britain-gale-90mph-storms


The following article from almost two weeks earlier than today - also stated the following in reference to the hottest Easter ever and prolonged periods of above-average temperatures:


The Met Office’s three-month outlook predicts a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures until the end of May.


However not all forecasters agree with the roasting predictions with some still backing an average spring to come.


James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “We will gradually see a return to some much colder and more wintry conditions as we progress towards the second half of March.


“As we progress into this weekend and the early part of next week much colder air will approach us from the east and leave us in a much colder feeling easterly flow. “Throughout next next week there is the potential for some more notable and widespread snow showers across the country. “However, warmer weather is around the corner, and parts of the UK can expect some widespread warm temperatures and pleasant weather throughout May.”


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/564196/Weather-forecast-Easter-Hottest-ever-temperatures-rise-heatwave


An additional article within the Daily Star from the 14th March also stated the following:


James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “The coming days and weeks will now see a reversion to much colder and more notable wintry conditions for the time of year.”


http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/430645/Winter-weather-Britain-snow


Our UK and Ireland 120 day ahead subscribers spring forecast also stated that we would experience some colder than average conditions and further wintry incursions at times throughout March. It also stated that the characteristics of the Gulf Stream would allow for some rather frequent and strong windy conditions at times.


Our UK and Ireland month ahead forecast to subscribers also stated that temperatures would feature at near or below-average for March overall, despite indications from conventional meteorology for well above-average temperatures (it would have been quite easy for us to jump on the warm spring forecasts bandwagon from elsewhere - after the milder incursions of weather experienced throughout the winter period). It also stated that there would be a number of wintry incursions and snow events throughout the month (please see media links/pictures below).


UK & Ireland March Snow/Cold Weather/Storms/Strong Winds Links & Pictures + Winter 14/15 Review Info Below


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-foyle-west-31706156


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/brrr-wrap-up-as-met-%C3%A9ireann-issues-snow-and-ice-warnings-1.2121847


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/more-snow-and-ice-hits-as-met-%C3%A9ireann-issues-orange-alert-1.2122865


http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/in-pictures-school-closures-and-gridlock-return-with-snowfall-1-6610839


http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/man-dies-in-car-crash-after-snow-and-ice-create-havoc-on-our-roads-31034897.html


http://www.irishexaminer.com/examviral/fun-times/how-twitter-is-reacting-to-the-irish-snow-315739.html


http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/freak-three-minute-snow-storm-hits-central-london-10082692.html


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/562691/Britain-gale-90mph-storms


http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/430645/Winter-weather-Britain-snow


http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/566463/Easter-weather-forecast-snow-gales-and-plummeting-temperatures-happy-Easter


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-winter-rain-gales-5413712


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-country-storm-alert-5424875


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/567126/Easter-weather-forecast-predicts-storms-wind-rain


https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather/photos/pcb.844112532303333/844111978970055/?type=1&permPage=1


Click the next button on each picture in the Facebook link above to view heavy snow in Co Durham, Cumbria, Huddersfield and Wales - as forecast in all our short and long range reports for the exact dates + despite conventional meteorology/supercomputers not forecasting the event until the actual day.


Winter 2014/15 Forecast Review


Please note that the full winter review will be posted here and on the accuracy page shortly. We apologise for the delay, but I have recently been suffering from a herniated disc that has delayed the final version for publication.


UPDATE ADDED: Tuesday 31st March 2015 (09:21) - James Madden




 



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