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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Spring & Summer 2015



 




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Spring 2014

Our original long range spring forecast for 2014 also suggested the first major warm spell of the year would occur from the middle part of May 2014.

The following front page of the Daily Mirror from 6th May 2014 also stated in addition to this:


Forecaster James Madden said: "It's going to get particularly warm from the middle of the month. Temperatures 'could' get up to 82F (28C) which will give later parts of May a Mediterranean feel. "Within the next 10 days we should begin to see lots of sunshine and pleasant weather that is set to continue until the start of June. "This is going to be the first big heatwave of the year. "It is going to better than anything we've experienced so far this year."

The Met Office then opposed the above statement and stated in a tweet on Twitter

"Ignore the front page of the Daily Mirror today... no heatwave on the way unfortunately, just a spell of dodgy reporting."


10 Days later (exact) and Britain experienced a period of high temperatures and glorious sunshine for several days across the country. Temperatures also reached 26.3F (79F) in parts of the south and despite some periods of unsettled weather thereafter, temperatures remained largely above average for the remainder of the month, with further periods of warm sunshine developing too.

SUMMER 2014

Our long range summer forecast to subscribers in January of last year also identified exactly when the warm to hot spells of weather would occur + in an article within the Daily Express from the 7th April.


James Madden said: “Some periods of warm and settled weather can be expected throughout this summer – in particular in the latter part of July and into the first half of August when many parts of the country could see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 20s 'AT TIMES'.

“Some warmer incursions of weather are also plausible from the mid-month points in both June and July, in particular, in the southern half of the country.

Conclusion

A generally settled theme and a prominent and widespread warm/hot spell with temperatures generally ranging in the mid to high 20s developed across large parts of the country throughout the latter part of July + it remained warm into the first part of August with temperatures reaching 25C in parts of the UK every day up to the 8th.

A warmer incursion of weather was also noted in mid-June when temperatures reached 26.8C in parts of the south on the 13th and 27C later in parts of both Scotland and Ireland on the 18th. A further incursion of warmer weather was also noted in mid-July when temperatures reached 32C in parts of the south on the 18th.


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4-6 pages inc news related features and climate research information that is not available via the site (issued 1-2 weeks ahead). Also includes a forecast breakdown and maps for specific regions in three separate parts + additional free updates throughout the month.

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The UK & Ireland Full Subscriptions Include:

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UK & Ireland Cold & Snow Update

The TV forecasts are now showing widespread snow showers throughout this weekend and developing blizzards in the north + the Met Office have their 'first' snow warnings in place for this period.

However, there is a much higher risk for snow to fall in places than their forecast is indicating for Sunday and into Monday/Tuesday. Relevant warnings will be issued or there is likely to be reports of surprise snow from locations that never expected to see any.

The Saturday 21st February snow events were not forecast by conventional meteorology/BBC/Met Office/TV forecasts for various locations including parts of Southern England until the actual day - as with earlier in the month for snow in parts of the south (please see below update dated 8th February + Saturday media links below)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uk-weather-snow-blankets-parts-of-country-ahead-of-cold-snap-10061567.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11426696/Wintry-blast-brings-snow-across-the-country.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2962746/High-tides-continue-pummelling-coastline-nearly-100-areas-flood-alert-cold-snap-set-bring-blizzards-lows-5C-parts-Britain.html

The temperatures are also much colder than the double digits figures, which were being indicated for this forecasting period on TV forecasts (from just a few days ago) + more SNOW to come next week and into Spring (please read your spring/subscribers reports)

ALL OF THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS/STATEMENTS WERE MADE BEFORE ANY INDICATIONS FROM CONVENTIONAL METEOROLOGY


The following was posted on the 8th February via Exacta Weather:

Our methodology and analysis of atmospheric indications at this stage of proceedings also support a much higher risk of additional cold northerly/easterly incursions and better blocking prospects/well-known snow setups throughout the remainder of February and into SPRING (more in depth detail has been outlined in the February month ahead and spring reports).

The problem we face here is that no other forecaster or computer model will be suggesting anything of this nature until a day or two before actual occurrence for the remainder of this winter and into spring, just as conventional meteorology/supercomputers never forecast any of the other cold periods or snow events that we have experienced throughout this winter to date until just before occurrence (often forecast many weeks in advance via Exacta Weather for the precise dates).

The following was posted on Sunday 15th February via the subscribers week ahead forecast:

The current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that we are about to enter strongly supports that the jet-stream will shift much further south towards the weekend (22nd Feb) and into the start of spring. This will bring in much colder conditions from the north and other respected weather models from around the world are now starting to adjust to this outcome. However, it is also likely to bring some unsettled and stormy conditions, which will result in some widespread and significant snowfall with some strong winds and blizzard conditions in places within this period, in particular, in parts of the north.

From as early as the weekend and into the start of next week (22nd-23rd February) there is the risk for widespread snow and potential blizzards to develop across parts of the north, and some of this wintry weather is likely to spread as far south as Central England as we experience a significant drop in temperatures. Parts of the South will also be at risk of some developing wintry weather throughout the latter part of February and into the start of spring + further detailed information was posted to subscribers.

The following was posted on Sunday 15th February via the Exacta Weather Facebook page (link below):



The widespread snow risk and much colder weather will return towards the end of next week and into the following week for the UK and Ireland - as indicated in our month ahead forecast for the period of the 21st - 28th February + our 150 day ahead report for Spring/March.

Watch this space for some big changes from other forecasters/TV forecasts in the coming days


The following Daily Express article from Monday 16th February also stated (link below):

Exacta Weather’s James Madden said cold Arctic winds will bring the risk of snow and even blizzards across the north next week.
He said: “The jet stream will shift much further south towards this weekend and into the start of spring.

“This will bring in much colder conditions from the north, it is also likely to bring some unsettled and stormy conditions, which will result in some widespread and significant snowfall. “Into the start of next week there is the risk for widespread snow and potential blizzards to develop across parts of the north, and some of this wintry weather is likely to spread as far south as Central England.”



UPDATE ADDED: Saturday 21st February 2015 (10:08am) - James Madden



 

How will the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) impact the latter part of winter and into spring for the UK and Ireland?


Forecasting confidence is still of the highest order for a reversion to a significantly colder and more wintry/blocked pattern throughout February and into March (possibly similar to March/Spring 2013).

We can therefore expect some 'imminent' and sudden changes from all third party weather models on their longer term outlooks over the next several days (which we will post on our Facebook here + February is still -1.4C below-average at present)

The following image is courtesy of the following Guardian article from 2013 titled 'why our turbulent weather is getting even harder to predict'.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/apr/07/science-behind-britain-coldest-easter



Further details are available within our subscribers week ahead and spring reports.

UPDATE ADDED: Saturday 14th February 2015 (12:25)



Is Winter Over For The UK & Ireland??? - Snow & Cold Update

We are now entering a period of rather benign weather over the coming days, and this is due to an area of high pressure that will become lodged across the country. This will bring a run of more near-average temperatures and less colder weather than of late for a number of days to begin with, and there will also be very little in the way of precipitation for most parts of the country. However, there will still be developing frosts and freezing fog patches within this period, so it will not feel mild by any means (others who failed to forecast the colder weather and snow for the second half of January and into early February just make it look like this via their forecasts, or their reliance on ever changing models limits their longer term outlooks).

Our subscribers month ahead forecast for February also stated that a number of 'less cold days' were likely to develop within this exact period, so we are technically still in a pattern change to colder conditions and for the February period as a whole.

So what next?

Throughout this winter to date we have experienced an alternating pattern of colder and milder weather conditions. Not one long-range forecast has been largely correct among all forecasters (including our own), and the earlier conflict between the mild versus cold winter forecasts appear to hold some quite good ground on the basis of what has occurred to date (something that will be covered in more detail within our final winter review in March).

However, we are in a very different position to the alternating pattern of mild and cold that we have experienced throughout the first half of winter, hence the recent terminology used within our forecasts and reports of 'pattern change'.

Our methodology and analysis of atmospheric indications at this stage of proceedings also support a much higher risk of additional cold northerly/easterly incursions and better blocking prospects/well-known snow setups throughout the remainder of February and into spring (more in depth detail has been outlined in the February month ahead and spring reports).

If we consider that the mean Central England Temperature (oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world) is already almost 3C below-average for February, then there is no reason why we won't experience an exceptionally cold month throughout what is still officially winter.

The mean Central England Temperature also dropped by over 3C throughout the second half of January, and had the measurement zone of been more central than its name suggests (see below image), then the recorded temperature values for December to February would have all been well below-average this winter.



We must also consider the adjustments that have been made to support the global warming agenda for the Central England Temperature.

1. A specific set of recent years is used in third party/Met Office analysis

2. The impact of urbanisation/urban heat island effect are not considered from old data

The problem we face here is that no other forecaster or computer model will be suggesting anything of this nature until a day or two before actual occurrence for the remainder of this winter and into spring, just as conventional meteorology/supercomputers never forecast any of the other cold periods or snow events that we have experienced throughout this winter to date until just before occurrence (often forecast many weeks in advance via Exacta Weather for the precise dates).

Our 150 day ahead snow risk forecast and our subscribers national week ahead forecast for last week was also confirmed for snow in parts of the south and the early February cold blast, despite failures from conventional meteorology/Met Office which didn't forecast snow for these parts until the actual day of occurrence (as outlined in the following links/media below and within the comments section from individuals within these locations on our Facebook page).




UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 8th February 2015 (23:57) - James Madden



 


*NEW* UK & Ireland March Report Inc Maps/Regions (4 pages) £9.99


UK & Ireland Spring 2015 Report £9.99

Will the 2015 spring period replicate the cold and wintry spring of 2013? Or will it be warm/hot?


UK & Ireland Preliminary Summer 2015 Report £9.99

Will the 2015 summer period bring a hot summer or see a reversion back to cold and wet?


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The UK & Ireland Month Ahead Forecasts Include:

4-6 pages inc news related features and climate research information that is not available via the site (issued 1-2 weeks ahead). Also includes a forecast breakdown and maps for specific regions in three separate parts + additional free updates throughout the month.

The UK & Ireland Seasonal Forecasts Include:

Several pages of detailed information and climate/weather forecasts that are not available via the site (issued no later than 150 days ahead of the start to the specific season). Also includes any news related features and analysis of climate research information + additional free updates throughout that forecasting period.

The UK & Ireland Full Subscriptions Include:

Access to the above forecasts for the duration of your chosen subscription within our members login area (with no obligation to renew). The full subscribers/members area also includes a national week ahead forecast/climate section + news related features and climate research information.

Individual forecast purchases will be delivered by email - subscribers will receive a username and password to the members login area.