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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Spring & Summer 2015




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A Detailed Explanation Of What To Expect For The UK/Ireland From High Pressure In The Coming Weeks + Why Other Forecasters Aren't Making A Song And Dance About This...

After a cool and rather unsettled start to the week, a much more settled and warmer outlook will start to develop for many as the Azores high begins to exert its influence across the UK and Ireland. However, there will be the odd exception and some 'occasional' showers or 'light rain' will develop at times over the next several days, in particular, in parts to the north. The coming days and into next week will see temperatures rising into the low 20s at the very least in certain parts of the south, and it will also feel pleasantly warm and mild for the time of year in the sunnier periods among some unfortunate and variable cloud cover in parts from the north to the south of the country. However, the far north and west will be at risk from the more generally and 'occasional' unsettled and cooler 'blips' of weather with some extensive cloud cover at times, and parts of the south will therefore fare much better from the high pressure ridges that are likely to frequently develop in terms of overall temperature and developing sunshine in the coming weeks. However, it certainly won't be a washout and temperatures will be at around to above-average at times in the best of the sunshine further north, to above-average and quite warm conditions at times in parts further south, although probably not as prominent or as warm as it could have been during the overall development process. The evenings and mornings will also be noticeably warmer in comparison to recent conditions for many (these are all factors that we will personally notice and be able to feel to our weather changes).

All of this is a quite notable and more settled period of weather and decent temperatures in comparison to what we have experienced throughout this month to date, and despite others not making a song and dance about this - as their models have only just changed around from an unsettled and cooler theme that they was forecasting for the foreseeable (the reason why). The coming weeks and into the start of June will also bring additional rises in high pressure and above-average temperatures for all parts of the country at times, and this will result in some lengthy periods of good weather for all, and a warming trend in temperatures, despite other computer models not recognising this at present.

Our earlier forecast indications ahead of other standard weather models that have only just adjusted to a more settled and warmer scenario stated on the 12th May 2015 (10 days earlier):

However, despite some small blips of unsettled weather at times in the coming weeks, there will also be plenty of dry and settled weather to come for many parts of the country. The more settled weather will also be accompanied by some potentially warm to hot temperature surges from the near Continent at times throughout the remainder of the month and into the start of June.

UPDATE ADDED: Friday 22nd May 2015 (11:49am) - James Madden



 
  
 
 
 


NO MAJOR EL NINO CYCLE ON THE WAY + UK/IRELAND SUMMER & WINTER 2015 UPDATE


Recent articles on the upcoming El Nino point towards December 2010 as a marker for when this last occurred - as within the following Daily Mail article below:


However, we experienced a strong La Nina event (cooling phase of the Pacific Ocean) throughout the second half of 2010, not an El Nino event (warming phase of the Pacific Ocean). We did however experience an El Nino event during the harsh winter of 2009/10, but this does not specifically mean that we are facing similar conditions throughout the upcoming winter of 2015/16, or that this is an attributing factor towards it. In Layman's terms no two of these events in the Pacific Ocean whether it be warming or cooling has the same impact on weather events across the UK and Ireland.

We also forecast the cold winter of 2009/10 on the basis of solar factors by stating the following on the 1st November 2009;

“I am also going to state that the Met Office is wrong about a mild winter for 2009/10, and what is all this about a 1 in 7 chance of it being cold?. “Forget that, it will be a cold winter for most of Europe and the UK”.


and again with the event we forecast from several months in advance for December 2010 (the coldest December in 100 years);



We also can't compare or rank these types of warming or cooling events in the Pacific to our weather patterns over a long time scale, as the information we have only takes us back over the last several decades. This doesn't leave us with enough comparative data to make a strong and confident assessment of how El Nino or La Nina events can impact our weather patterns in the long term for the UK and Ireland. It is also difficult to asses the strength of these events until the warming or cooling phase has concluded. 

Similar stories developed about the arrival and strengthening of an El Nino event throughout last year (2014) from certain climate scientists which never materialised (as suggested in our early 2014 reports to subscribers).


A good hypothesis would be to consider the current period of solar activity that we currently reside in, and how solar variability can impact these cycles and other factors such as cloud cover. In terms of the current solar cycle and energetic eruptions that are earth directed, we happen to be in a period of extremely low solar activity that emits less solar radiation and favours more dominant cooler phases in the tropical Pacific.

Unfortunately, solar output is still considered as minuscule in terms of overall effect on our climate and weather patterns, and the sun-climate link is still refuted by many. It is also not correctly incorporated into model projections that currently suggest a development for a strong El Nino event later in the year. They therefore have a tendency to over-hype what is unlikely to be a strong El Nino event, just as they did throughout 2014. In reality, the solar radiation output is simply not there at present and it hasn't been there in recent years to create any major temperature amplifications of the Pacific.

However, there is a long-term relationship with a number of indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) with solar variability. In terms of the summer period for the UK and Ireland throughout 2015, we are more favourable to experience a rather cool and wet period with a large number of untimely summertime storms, and parts to the far south will benefit from any better weather at times. This will be due to a prolonged displacement southwards of the jet-stream and a trend towards negative territory for the NAO and AO indices, in particular, with the NAO - not any developing El Nino conditions. However, all is not lost as there will be some occasions when the jet-stream will flirt northwards throughout the upcoming summer period (June to August). This diversion of the jet-stream will allow some warmer weather to push in from the near Continent at times throughout this summer, in particular, throughout the August to September period, but in general it is likely to remain displaced to the south of the country.

All as indicated in our 200+ day ahead subscribers report for the 2015 summer + various media articles in advance of current indications from conventional forecasters/meteorologists.

The following Daily Express article from the 9th April 2015 also stated the following:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Large storm systems such as this typhoon can have an impact on atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface currents.

“Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”


In terms of the upcoming winter period - we could be facing some potentially rather cold and snowy periods at times (exact details available in subscribers reports of particular months), but this would be in part due to low solar activity, and not the development of any strong El Nino conditions that are currently being over-hyped from elsewhere (also further details in subscribers reports).

A dated version of this update has also been posted here to refer to at a later date.

UPDATE ADDED: Thursday 14th May 2015 (10:45am) - James Madden

 

How Influential Will High Pressure Become? + April Review


A number of areas of high pressure will bring some dry days and warmer conditions to start next week, in particular, in some parts to the south and east of the country. High pressure will also bring some decent periods of warm sunshine for many at times throughout the early to middle part of next week, although some places could get quite chilly under the clearer skies throughout Tuesday night, in particular, in some rural areas of the country. Some places will also begin on a quite dull and gloomy note throughout Tuesday, before it starts to brighten up later in the day, in particular, in some central and southern parts of the UK and Ireland.

Low pressure will then bring a more unsettled outlook throughout Thursday, in particular, in some southern and central areas. A number of showers could also turn potentially thundery in places throughout Thursday too. However, high pressure will return throughout Friday to bring some drier and more settled weather conditions, in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country.

There is then some uncertainty as to how influential high pressure will become across the country throughout next weekend and into the following week starting the 18th May. Some models are indicating a more unsettled period, whereas others are wanting to push in a more settled, drier and much warmer theme.

However, high pressure is likely to be more influential than current indications from elsewhere throughout next weekend and into the remainder of the month. It is likely to become increasingly warmer and more settled, in particular, in some southern parts of the country to begin with. Some brief showery weather and cooler temperatures may occur at times, especially in the north. However, despite some small blips of unsettled weather at times in the coming weeks, there will also be plenty of dry and settled weather to come for many parts of the country. The more settled weather will also be accompanied by some potentially warm to hot temperature surges from the near Continent at times throughout the remainder of the month and into the start of June.

 Our subscribers month ahead forecast for April correctly forecast the following from 1-4 weeks in advance of occurrence:


1. Temperatures would be near-average overall and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET)  - The mean temperature was 0.5C above the long-term 1981-2010 average.

2. Rainfall amounts would be more near-average overall with the driest conditions in parts to the south and east of the country -  Southern and eastern areas were driest, with some parts to the far north and west reaching average totals at best.

3. Temperatures would become warm in parts to the south and west of the country throughout the period of the 15th - 20th April - A number of dry, warm and sunny days developed within this period with maximum temperatures regularly above 20C + maximum temperatures in excess of 25C in parts of southern England.

 http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-britain-basks-25c-5523619

4. A notable wintry blast for the time of the year would occur throughout the period of the 21st - 30th April, in particular, in parts of the north + some stormy features/strong winds - A breakdown to much colder and more wintry weather conditions with increasing winds/Ice/frosts developed within this period for parts of the north and south (frost & ice), A minimum temperature of -8C was recorded on the 27th April in parts of Northern Ireland and fresh falls of snow occurred across parts of the north.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-snowstorms-hit-britain-5595497
UPDATE ADDED: Tuesday 12th May 2015 (07:06) - James Madden

Please note that the following update/information was posted to subscribers on Sunday 10th May 

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