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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Spring & Summer 2015



 

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Please note that the following update was posted to subscribers at an earlier date


Temperatures To Hit 25C + Warm/Hot Weather & Summer Forecast

Temperatures are now likely to touch or exceed 25C throughout Wednesday in parts of the south. However, temperatures are likely to remain somewhat suppressed the further north you are within this period.

Our month ahead forecast stated for this period:

However, settled weather and warm temperatures will feature within this period (11th - 20th April), in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country.

The following forecast information was also featured within an earlier update to subscribers during last week:

The remainder of April will bring an alternating pattern of changeable weather types and a somewhat north and south divide at times. The north will remain more prone to incursions of cooler and more unsettled periods, whilst parts to the south and east will experience the best of the warmer and more settled conditions. However, throughout next week (13th April) could see some quite warm temperatures developing for the time of the year. This could see temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s in parts of the south for around the middle of next week, but with a much cooler feel to affairs becoming more likely the further north you are.

The following Daily Express article from the 10th April stated:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said all is not lost with temperatures shooting back up by the middle of next week. He said the best of any warm weather will be in the SOUTH where thermometers are likely to creep back into the mid 20Cs (75F). “However next week could see some quite warm temperatures developing for the time of the year, temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s in parts of the SOUTH.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/569706/Weather-UK-sun-spring-summer-hottest-day

The next several days will see high pressure continuing to dominate. This will bring plenty of dry and settled weather across many parts of the country, with the best sunshine featuring in some parts to the west of the country. However, it will feel somewhat cooler for many throughout the remainder of the week, and temperatures will fall to more near normal values for the time of year, in particular, in some eastern areas as cloud cover hinders any periods of pleasant sunshine. However, temperatures should begin to gradually recover throughout this weekend and into much of next week to above-average daytime temperatures, which will be coupled with periods of warm and pleasant sunshine for many, although the evenings will feel chilly at times under clearer skies within this period.

Some further incursions of much cooler and potentially wintry weather may also occur later next week for a number of days, before a number of surges of warm to hot periods of weather for many throughout the latter part of April and into May (all as indicated in our 150 day ahead seasonal forecast + our UK and Ireland month ahead forecasts to subscribers).

The following Daily Express article from the 12th April stated:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: "The latter part of this month and into MAY is likely to see some much drier and even warmer conditions developing for many parts. "This could see temperatures ranging in the mid 20s as these conditions become more widespread, in particular, in parts of the south. "This could result in our first proper taste of summer and widespread warm to hot temperatures."

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/569946/Weather-Britain-sun-three-month-heatwave-summer-spring

Please note that our forecast expectations for some widespread warm to hot periods of weather throughout May are not necessarily reflected in our expectations for the 2015 summer period (June to August). Further details are available in your long range PDF reports within the members login area (which were issued during the latter part of 2014 and before any recent forecast suggestions from elsewhere). 

MET OFFICE POURS COLD WATER ON THEIR OWN WEATHER FORECAST

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11532234/Met-Office-pours-cold-water-on-their-own-weather-forecast.html

UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 15th April 2015 (08:28) - James Madden



 

Changeable Cool/Warm Pattern Continues

This weekend will give way to the recent settled and warmer weather of late, and it will be replaced with some much cooler and more unsettled weather from the north. There will be a noticeable drop in temperatures and there will also be some wintry showers developing in the north, in particular, across higher ground.

Our subscribers month ahead report stated the following in italics for this period (issued in March):

This forecasting period starting the 11th April will then see a gradual reversion away from the more settled and warm weather as high pressure dissipates. Some periods of prolonged rainfall and frequent April showers are likely to develop within this period, and there is the potential for some of these to turn wintry at times, in particular, across higher ground. Some of these conditions are also likely to be accompanied by some stormy conditions and rather strong winds within this period, in particular, in some parts to the north and west of the country. However, settled weather and warm temperatures will feature within this period (11th - 20th April), in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country.

The remainder of April will bring an alternating pattern of changeable weather types and a somewhat north and south divide at times. The north will remain more prone to incursions of cooler and more unsettled periods, whilst parts to the south and east will experience the best of the warmer and more settled conditions. However, throughout next week (13th April) could see some quite warm temperatures developing for the time of the year. This could see temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s in parts of the south for around the middle of next week, but with a much cooler feel to affairs becoming more likely the further north you are. However, there is some uncertainty regarding how far this warmth will extend throughout next week, and it could very well be that higher temperatures could be recorded in parts as far north as Scotland over a number of days, before a reversion back to cooler and more unsettled later next week (a couple of areas to watch for on changing TV forecasts over the coming days).

More to follow on this in the subscribers week ahead forecast later in the week...

The latter part of the month and into May is likely to see some much drier and even warmer weather conditions developing for many parts of the country at times, and for a more sustained and notable period of time than recently.

Further information on these events have been covered in the UK and Ireland month ahead reports + in the seasonal 150 day ahead forecasts for April/May.

UPDATE ADDED: Saturday 11th April 2015 (06:37) - James Madden



George Monbiot in defence of the Met Office mild 2009/10 winter forecast and promotion of Global Warming in early 2010 
(something that our science does not support + what his articles and comments are really about).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/6246570/Britain-will-have-mild-winter-if-you-believe-the-Met-Office.html

"This is called weather, and, believe it or not, it is not always predictable and it changes quite often. It is not the same as climate, and single events are not the same as trends. Is this really so hard to understand?" (George Monbiot - 2010)

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2010/jan/06/cold-snap-climate-sceptics

Another George Monbiot related article from 2010 stated:

Monbiot is frustrated that he has failed to convince people of his perspective. But rather than reflect on his own argument, which, as we can see is constructed out of sheer rubbish, he finds ways to show faults with people – ordinary, normal, everyday people, not just ‘bloggers’ – and damns the entire human race in the process. We are unthinking automata, objects, blindly obeying the forces that surround us. Only he knows the truth. But the truth that most people can sense is that Monbiot uses the status of scientific factoids, such as the Met Office’s dubious ‘predictions’ to convince people in the same way that a caveman seeks to persuade people with a club.


http://www.climate-resistance.org/2012/01/its-that-monbiot-again.html


UPDATED ADDED: Thursday 9th April 2015 (09:14)


Spring Weather To Date + Easter Forecast/April & May


The following information was published via the subscribers area on Monday 30th March 2015:


The first part of the working week will continue with a rather unsettled and cold theme for many parts of the country as low pressure and quite strong winds dominate proceedings. It will also be cold enough for some of these showers to turn to snow across parts of the north, in particular, across higher ground. There is also the risk for some sleet and snow showers to develop at some much lower levels in some parts to the north and west of the UK and certain parts of Ireland at times within this period.


Looking ahead to the Easter period, and Good Friday is likely to see a continuation of the cool and unsettled theme for many, as an extensive area of low pressure passes eastwards through the country on a cold northerly feed. This will also bring some further snow across higher ground in parts of the north throughout Friday and into Saturday, with the potential for some wintry showers to develop across other parts of the country, in particular, in some parts to the north and the west of the country throughout the early part of Good Friday. Saturday is also likely to remain unsettled with some rather subdue temperatures for the time of the year in places.


However, there is likely to be some improvements in the overall picture as we head into the second half of the Easter weekend and Easter Monday. High pressure will start to gradually build and become a more prominent feature throughout Easter Sunday and into the following week (starting the 6th April), and this will bring a somewhat drier and more settled theme for many, in particular, in some parts to the west. However, the positioning of the high pressure is unlikely to deliver any notably warm or hot surface conditions within this period, and there is even a risk of it remaining rather cool, cloudy and unsettled at times in some places, despite a more settled theme overall. Temperatures will therefore approach average values at the very best in some places from this developing scenario, with some parts of the far south experiencing the best of the more pleasant and settled periods of any respectable warmth for the time of the year in the developing sunshine.


The mornings and evenings will also feel particularly chilly for many under these conditions within this period and into the following week, and there is the substantial risk for some quite sharp frosts to develop for the time of the year under clearer skies. Unfortunately, there is no sign of a 'heatwave' or any 'prolonged periods' of widespread warm temperatures as of yet. The majority of April is likely to see temperatures ranging at near to below average for many, with some further incursions of cool northerly and easterly winds. This will also bring some additional wintry conditions and rather unseasonable weather in places at times. However, the overall prospects for May look much brighter, and there is a good chance for some much warmer temperatures and more pleasant weather to develop at times throughout the final month of spring (as indicated it what will be our 150 day ahead seasonal forecast).


Further details and specific regions/maps are available in the subscribers UK & Ireland spring forecast (March to May) + in the April month ahead PDF forecast (this will be uploaded to the members login area later today) + additional details on other undisclosed weather events throughout April and into May

Is there any potential warm spells coming soon/in April???


The following article from early March stated the following in reference to the second half of March:


And the experts are split over the outlook for the rest of the month.


James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, delivered a pessimistic verdict saying: “We will see a return to some much colder and more wintry conditions as we progress towards the second half of March, in particular, in some parts to the North and East. “Colder air from an Arctic outset will start to filter in across the country, and this will come as quite a shock to many as temperatures plunge from near-average to below-average.”


However Leon Brown, forecaster for The Weather Channel UK, believes that conditions will improve from the end of next week.


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/562691/Britain-gale-90mph-storms


The following article from almost two weeks earlier than today - also stated the following in reference to the hottest Easter ever and prolonged periods of above-average temperatures:


The Met Office’s three-month outlook predicts a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures until the end of May.


However not all forecasters agree with the roasting predictions with some still backing an average spring to come.


James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “We will gradually see a return to some much colder and more wintry conditions as we progress towards the second half of March.


“As we progress into this weekend and the early part of next week much colder air will approach us from the east and leave us in a much colder feeling easterly flow. “Throughout next next week there is the potential for some more notable and widespread snow showers across the country. “However, warmer weather is around the corner, and parts of the UK can expect some widespread warm temperatures and pleasant weather throughout May.”


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/564196/Weather-forecast-Easter-Hottest-ever-temperatures-rise-heatwave


An additional article within the Daily Star from the 14th March also stated the following:


James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “The coming days and weeks will now see a reversion to much colder and more notable wintry conditions for the time of year.”


http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/430645/Winter-weather-Britain-snow


Our UK and Ireland 120 day ahead subscribers spring forecast also stated that we would experience some colder than average conditions and further wintry incursions at times throughout March. It also stated that the characteristics of the Gulf Stream would allow for some rather frequent and strong windy conditions at times.


Our UK and Ireland month ahead forecast to subscribers also stated that temperatures would feature at near or below-average for March overall, despite indications from conventional meteorology for well above-average temperatures (it would have been quite easy for us to jump on the warm spring forecasts bandwagon from elsewhere - after the milder incursions of weather experienced throughout the winter period). It also stated that there would be a number of wintry incursions and snow events throughout the month (please see media links/pictures below).


UK & Ireland March Snow/Cold Weather/Storms/Strong Winds Links & Pictures + Winter 14/15 Review Info Below


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-foyle-west-31706156


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/brrr-wrap-up-as-met-%C3%A9ireann-issues-snow-and-ice-warnings-1.2121847


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/more-snow-and-ice-hits-as-met-%C3%A9ireann-issues-orange-alert-1.2122865


http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/in-pictures-school-closures-and-gridlock-return-with-snowfall-1-6610839


http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/man-dies-in-car-crash-after-snow-and-ice-create-havoc-on-our-roads-31034897.html


http://www.irishexaminer.com/examviral/fun-times/how-twitter-is-reacting-to-the-irish-snow-315739.html


http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/freak-three-minute-snow-storm-hits-central-london-10082692.html


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/562691/Britain-gale-90mph-storms


http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/430645/Winter-weather-Britain-snow


http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/566463/Easter-weather-forecast-snow-gales-and-plummeting-temperatures-happy-Easter


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-winter-rain-gales-5413712


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-country-storm-alert-5424875


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/567126/Easter-weather-forecast-predicts-storms-wind-rain


https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather/photos/pcb.844112532303333/844111978970055/?type=1&permPage=1


Click the next button on each picture in the Facebook link above to view heavy snow in Co Durham, Cumbria, Huddersfield and Wales - as forecast in all our short and long range reports for the exact dates + despite conventional meteorology/supercomputers not forecasting the event until the actual day.


Winter 2014/15 Forecast Review


Please note that the full winter review will be posted here and on the accuracy page shortly. We apologise for the delay, but I have recently been suffering from a herniated disc that has delayed the final version for publication.


UPDATE ADDED: Tuesday 31st March 2015 (09:21) - James Madden






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