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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Autumn 2014 & Winter 2014/15



 




The following autumn membership sale offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited period of time - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead and seasonal forecasts (normally priced at £10 each) for the subscription duration of 1 to 3 years
  • 1 Year Full Subscription For £14.99 In The Link Below* - Normally £74.99
  • 3 Year Full Subscription For £27.99 In The Link Below* - Normally £174.99
DOUBLE UP INTRODUCTORY AUTUMN OFFER!

1 year subs above - will receive a 2 year full subscription
3 year subs above - will receive a 6 year full subscription

http://www.exactaweather.com/Autumn_Sale.html

The memberships/subscriptions include:
  • UK & IRELAND Month ahead forecasts (Normally £10 per month HERE)
  • Our month ahead weather forecasts offer an in depth and detailed outlook on the weather for the month ahead for up to 30 and 50+ days in advance + details of extreme weather events that standard weather models/meteorlogy don't recognise until later.
  • UK seasonal forecasts (Normally £10 each x 4 per year HERE) - Currently includes access to UK & Ireland Autumn 2014 and Winter 2014/15 + Winter snow risk dates forecast
  • Previously correct and seasonal weather events forecast from several months ahead are available to view HERE
  • Regular weather updates including a national week ahead weather forecast
  • No need to download or wait for our email, you can now simply log on to the members area with your username and password (username and password will only be sent after payment is received below)
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Major Changes Ahead - As Autumnal/Stormy Weather Arrives On Cue

As we progress throughout this weekend and into next week, a major change is set to take place to a more autumnal type weather pattern. Low pressure will become a widespread and more dominant feature, and this will result in some markedly cooler temperatures across many parts of the country, in particular, throughout next week when it should take more of a widespread stronghold - as indicated in our last update below. It will also become rather unsettled and stormy with periods of rain for many parts of the country, which will also be accompanied by some very strong to gale force winds at times, in particular, in parts of the north.

There will also be the increasing risk for the first wintry/snow showers of this autumn to develop across higher ground in parts of the far north within this period.

The 5 month ahead autumn forecast to subscribers also indicated the following key points from the 26th May 2014:

1. A mild to warm theme/Indian Summer type weather throughout September and into the early/mid part of October.

2. The second part of autumn (early to mid October) is then likely to see a major reversal of these potentially mild to warm conditions at times. A much cooler theme and the suggested storm date for in or around the 12th October could herald the signal for these changes (The forecast also stated to allow for a slight deviation in exact timing - due to how far in advance this forecast was issued).

UPDATE ADDED: Tuesday 30th September 2014 (08:58) - James Madden



 


Indian Summer/Autumn Warmth Continues - But For How Long?

Another mainly fine day with developing sunny periods has seen maximum temperatures ranging throughout 24-25C in parts of the south on Sunday (well above the seasonal average for the time of the year). High pressure is also likely to stay dominant throughout next week, and this will result in some further mild to very warm temperatures for the time of the year and decent periods of sunshine.

The following Telegraph article also quoted our 150 day ahead autumn forecast in reference to this:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: "A significant area of high pressure is likely to build in across many parts of the country towards the end of the month and into the early part of October, resulting in some even warmer and potentially very hot weather for the time of the year."


However, the warm weather could trigger off some potentially heavy and thundery showers in places as we progress throughout this week, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country. This may also bring the small risk of some localised surface flooding in these parts, due to some possible absorption problems because of the very dry conditions that we have experienced of late + in addition to the recent thunderstorms/flooding below.

The following Daily Express article from Monday 22nd September also stated:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said warm weather over the next few weeks could trigger thunderstorms.

He said: "September and into early October may offer some bursts of warmth and Indian summer type weather. "However, it is also likely to become unsettled at times within this period and any periods of developing warmth within this time frame is likely to be replaced with some potentially vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country, where some localised flooding events may occur."

The 5 month ahead UK and Ireland autumn forecast also stated (issued to subscribers in May):

The 2014 Autumn period is likely to experience a more near average to mild/warm theme at times to begin with, in particular, throughout the first half of the season (September to early/mid October). September and into early October may therefore still offer some bursts of warmth and Indian summer type weather. However, it is also likely to be rather unsettled at times within this period and any periods of developing warmth within this time frame is likely to be replaced with some unsettled weather or vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country, where some localised flooding events may occur.
 
The remainder of the week will also see some largely dry weather with periods of warm sunshine developing for many parts of the UK and Ireland. This will also see temperatures remaining at well above the seasonal average and a continuation of the autumn warmth/Indian summer type weather.

However, some frontal activity will bring some rain to parts of the far north and west at times during the middle part of the week, although this is likely to dissipate and become lighter natured in any progression to other parts of the country as high pressure remains in control.

The latter part of next week may see low pressure becoming somewhat more influential on our weather patterns, in particular, in some parts to the north and west of the country, and in particular in parts of Ireland. This would result in some potentially unsettled and wet weather for these parts, with a noticeable drop in temperatures too. However, some parts to the south and east of the country would remain more settled and on the warm side due to the influence of high pressure. It may also be possible for this high pressure to be more influential across other parts of the country within this specified period. This would restrict any unsettled weather to parts of the far north and west of the country/Ireland, or prevent it from making much of a widespread impact at all, or maybe until the following week (a tricky one to call overall).

A recent Mirror article also stated the following in reference to this:


James Madden, meteorologist with Exacta Weather, said: “High pressure is likely to build in from the south of the country in the early part of October“This is likely to bring some further Indian summer-type weather and mild to warm conditions within this period for several days at the very least, in particular in southern and eastern parts of the country. “Although some areas will still be at risk of seeing some rain and showers at times, some further drier weather and decent spells of sunshine are likely to develop once again.” But he warned: “The middle part of October, possibly a little earlier, will see a major reversal of these mild and settled conditions. “Low pressure will become a more dominant feature and conditions will become largely unsettled, with above-average rainfall amounts across many parts of Ireland.

The full UK & Ireland October forecast including weather maps is also available in the following link @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Ire_Month_Ahead.html

*NEW* Winter 2014/15 Update - UK & Ireland

One of the leading seasonal outlook models for long range weather and climate (Japan) is now also indicating a very cold winter for the UK and Ireland.


Our 5 month ahead winter report 1 issued to subscribers also stated in reference to this:

Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line (also includes major snow risk dates) @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 28th September 2014 (18:42) - James Madden





UK & Ireland Winter Weather Forecast 2014/15

Our UK & Ireland winter 2014/15 forecast defines a particular period of exceptional cold and major snow events due to sudden stratospheric warming and jet stream displacement in the link provided below.

Also includes an alternative volcanic winter report for the possibility of a major volcanic eruption in Iceland.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

 
Exacta Weather have also accurately forecast sudden stratospheric warming and jet stream displacement events from several months in advance for the exact dates for the coldest December in 100 years (2010) the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S. winter in 100 years (2013/14).

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/spring2013forecast.pdf

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/378966/Britain-set-for-10-day-freeze-as-temperatures-plunge


http://www.exactaweather.com/USA_Long_Range_Weather_Fore.html

 

High Pressure Staying In Control?


High pressure will initially stay in control as we begin the new working week, and despite a chilly start to the day on Monday, many places will see some further periods of pleasant sunshine developing once any fog patches and cloud clear away. However, some parts further north will see some rain developing as we progress throughout tomorrow evening and into Tuesday, in particular, in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. A similar day will follow on Tuesday in terms of pleasant sunshine for a good bulk of the country once any fog patches and cloud clear away, although some parts further north may see more in the way of persistent cloud and developing showers in places.


The middle part of the week will see more of a north/west and south division. Fresher, windier and more unsettled conditions will tend to linger in some parts to the north, although probably dissipating somewhat in progression to become lighter natured in parts of northern England and some parts to the west. More southern areas will see the best of the warmest temperatures and more settled weather, although some cloud cover may also be of hindrance at times in these parts too.


However, from Thursday onwards is likely to see high pressure becoming a more prominent feature and pushing in from parts to the south and west of the country. This could also be a more prominent feature than what is currently being indicated from elsewhere and other third party weather models as we progress throughout the remainder of the week. This would see temperatures rising to some quite warm values for the time of the year in the sunshine across a good bulk of England, Wales and Ireland, and in particular, across parts of the far south, where it may become very warm for a number of days within this period.

Current suggestions from elsewhere indicate a more unsettled picture for parts of the north and west throughout Friday to Sunday. However, these could literally be restricted to parts of the very far north for an odd day or two within this period, whilst a good bulk of the country experiences more in the way of settled weather and a continuation of the Indian Summer type conditions (warm sunshine), due to high pressure taking control once again.

However, it is possible that some further thundery showers could be triggered off in places within this developing scenario, in particular, in some parts to the south and west, but it is not a given.


Our 30 day ahead UK and Ireland forecast issued to subscribers also stated the following:


There are a number of alternative scenarios with equal weighting to consider for the remainder of the forecasting period 21st - 30th September:


1. High pressure will build through the country and bring settled weather and warm temperatures + some periods of sunshine for many parts of the country within this

period and into early October.


2. High pressure will be more prominent in the south and parts to the north and west will remain more changeable with some outbreaks of rain and rather unsettled/cooler conditions.


The following Daily Express article from the 21st September also features details of our 150 day ahead autumn forecast for the UK and Ireland Indian Summer statement for September and into October @
 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/513567/Britain-Weather-forecast-this-week-Chilly-nights-as-temperatures-drop

It also covers details of the recent thunderstorms that occurred in parts to the south and west of the country from our 150 day ahead autumn forecast @


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11108253/Train-delays-caused-by-lightning-strikes-overnight.html

http://m.westerndailypress.co.uk/.../news/article/22950919


UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 21st September 2014 (23:11) - James Madden


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Autumn Warmth Continues + Thunderstorms Risk Later?

High pressure will continue to dominate throughout the upcoming week, bringing further dry weather and some periods of developing sunshine at times. Some variable cloud cover will be of hindrance at times and there will be the risk of some isolated showers developing in places, in particular, in some parts of the north. However, it will still be very warm for the time of the year for many as we progress throughout the week, in particular, in some parts of the south, where temperatures may touch or exceed 25C at the very least. There may also be the risk for some thundery showers to develop in places later in the week, and some of these could prove to be quite heavy in places as they push in across some parts of the south and west, and later to some parts to the north.  More to follow on this - as this could be something that standard meteorology/weather models is currently underestimating...

Our 5 month ahead autumn forecast also stated:

The 2014 Autumn period is likely to experience a more near average to mild/warm theme at times to begin with, in particular, throughout the first half of the season (September to early/mid October). September and into early October may therefore still offer some bursts of warmth and Indian summer type weather. However, it is also likely to become unsettled at times within this period and any periods of developing warmth within this time frame is likely to be replaced with some potentially vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country, where some localised flooding events may occur.

UPDATE ADDED: James Madden - Sunday 14th September 2014 (20:47)



High Pressure Dominating + Bardabunga Volcano Update (Iceland)

The start to September has seen a fairly warm start to the month with temperatures at several degrees above the seasonal average in places. Maximum temperatures would also have been much higher throughout the last week, had it not been for the unfortunate and quite extensive cloud cover that developed. However, the warm weather and well above-average temperatures are set to continue into a second week as high pressure dominates throughout next week. This will bring a largely dry, warm and settled theme for much of the country, with more in the way of ample periods of pleasant sunshine, despite recent indications for an unsettled week in projections from the BBC/Met Office. Towards the end of the week, we could be looking at temperatures reaching the mid 20s in some places at the very least as high pressure remains securely in control.

The following media article in reference to high pressure across the UK & Ireland from the 29th August also stated:

“It will gradually become much warmer as high pressure becomes a more dominant feature and builds in across many parts of the country. “The widespread warmth is also set to last over a minimum of several days to two weeks at the very least."


However, a change in wind direction for the Iceland region could bring an increased risk of some residual volcanic debris and hinder air conditions across parts of the UK and Ireland throughout next week, in particular, across parts of Scotland. This could be a cause for concern if significant ash is emitted within this period, or if a major eruption occurs at Bardabunga in Iceland (which must be considered as a probability with some weighting, due to the ongoing seismic activity and the magnitude of the recorded earthquakes to date).

+ High Sulphur Dioxide Warning - Bardabunga Volcano (Iceland)

Below is a recent satellite image showing clouds of sulphur dioxide from the Bardabunga volcano in Iceland. The interpretable information of sulphur dioxide (SO2) concentration and distribution is called the vertical column density (VCD), which is then given as a Dobson Unit (DU). Strong and explosive volcanic eruptions can result in Dobson Units of 10+. As you can see from the satellite data below and the red shading, recent measurements have shown the emissions almost approaching 10 Dobson Units. However, it must be noted that we have not seen a strong or explosive eruption from the Bardabunga volcano in Iceland as of yet, and the current activity is only 'effusive'. Should an 'explosive' eruption occur, then this clearly demonstrates the overall potential for a large emission of sulphur dioxide (which alters our climate and blocks out sunlight).



The alternative volcano report issued to subscribers in the link below on the 22nd August also stated the following:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

One scenario to consider is for a major eruption to occur that perforates the surface of the glacier. This type of eruption would allow for a significant emission of volcanic ash into the atmosphere. The amount of sulphur dioxide emitted would then be a major concern in terms of reflecting sunlight and cooling the earth/various regions.


UPDATE ADDED: 7th September 2014 (11:35) - James Madden


UK & Ireland Final Summer Forecast Review 2014

The Met Office are now confirming a more near average summer with temperatures and rainfall close to normal levels for the season (as suggested in our long range 2014 summer forecast issued in early April to subscribers + below media links from the Daily Mirror x 2)

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/cool-wet-august-ends-fairly-average-summer/

The Met Office also state that rainfall during the last few days of August will mean the summer will be slightly wetter than average (our forecast always stated that August would be wetter than average, with June and July likely to be more near to above average).

The following Daily Mirror articles from the 5th and 7th May also stated the following:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-britain-heading-first-3499753 (5th May)

James Madden of Exacta Weather said: "Overall, the long-range summer forecast looks mixed. It's not going to be a wash-out but it wont be as good as last year."

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irelands-summer-weather-end-abruptly-3509824 (7th May)

But, Mr Madden, whose team predicted last year’s record-breaking summer, said there was no change to the forecast he announced last month.

He added: “It will be a more near-average summer in terms of overall temperatures and overall rainfall amounts.”

The Met Office have also confirmed no major heat-waves for June and July in the link below, despite earlier indications for one of the hottest summers ever from top climate scientists and themselves.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2014/summer

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/weather-summer-2014-to-be-hottest-on-record-9122575.html

http://home.bt.com/news/uknews/britain-set-for-hot-summer-says-met-office-11363910123948

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5679242/Met-Office-too-embarrassed-to-tell-us-its-expecting-sizzling-hot-summer.html

Our long range summer forecast also stated the following in reference to El Nino predictions and the hottest summer ever:

There has also recently been reports from scientific experts in reference to the hottest summer ever occurring during 2014 on the basis of El Nino weather patterns. Unfortunately, these predictions do not consider how solar activity can influence our weather patterns and other major factors such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in relation to the frequency and strength of El Nino and La Nina episodes. The PDO identifies warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean (largest ocean in the world) on a monthly basis, with each cool or warm phase generally lasting for around 20-30 years in duration. We are currently in a 'COLD' phase of the PDO, of which La Nina episodes (cooling) are more prevalent and stronger, whereas El Nino (warming) are less infrequent and weaker overall (current indications therefore over-hype the El Nino conditions in current model suggestions). However, El Nino (warming) episodes will still occur, but they will be less infrequent and much weaker in their overall and predicted duration.

Our long range summer forecast to subscribers also identified exactly when the warm to hot spells of weather would occur + in an even earlier article in the Daily Express from the 7th April (before the above Daily Mirror articles):

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/469046/UK-weather-latest-Britain-set-for-THREEMONTHS-
of-sun-in-mega-heatwave


James Madden said: “Some periods of warm and settled weather can be expected throughout this summer – in particular in the latter part of July and into the first half of August when many parts of the country could see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 20s 'AT TIMES'.

“Some warmer incursions of weather are also plausible from the mid-month points in both June and July, in particular, in the southern half of the country.

Conclusion

A generally settled theme and a prominent and widespread warm/hot spell with temperatures generally ranging in the mid to high 20s developed across large parts of the country throughout the latter part of July + it remained warm into the first part of August with temperatures reaching 25C in parts of the UK every day up to the 8th.

A warmer incursion of weather was also noted in mid-June when temperatures reached 26.8C in parts of the south on the 13th and 27C later in parts of both Scotland and Ireland on the 18th. A further incursion of warmer weather was also noted in mid-July when temperatures reached 32C in parts of the south on the 18th.



Solar Activity Update - Impact On Upcoming Autumn/Winter? + Weekly Update

Solar activity has currently took a nose-dive to very low levels and this is likely to have a significant bearing on our autumn and winter weather patterns later this year/early next year. At present there are only a number of tiny sunspots on the visible solar disc and we recently experienced our first spotless day in a number of years, something that is likely to become prominent throughout the coming years and decades due to a less magnetically active sun.



IMAGE COURTESY OF SOHO/NASA 21st July (2014)

We have already seen the weakest solar max in at least a century, something that was indicated as a possibility for solar cycle 24 many years earlier via Exacta Weather/our YouTube channel here. These early and recent indications do not bode well and in consideration of how far we are away from the next solar minimum, and the likely impact that this will have on the majority of our future summer and in particular, winter weather patterns.



EXAMPLE OF HOW THE SOLAR DISC SHOULD LOOK DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM AND SOLAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS (ABOVE)

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Autumn 2014 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Weather models don't consider solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns between now and then, and this could well be something that they really won't pick up on until much further down the line.

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line.

The UK, Ireland and U.S. Autumn/Fall & Winter forecasts for 2014/15 are available to view in the links below:



This type of analysis has also allowed previous long range forecasts published via Exacta Weather to identify the coldest December in 100 years (2010), the wettest summer in 100 years (2012), the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S winter in 100 years (2013/14).

The coldest December in 100 years (2010)

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.”(Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).

The wettest summer in 100 years (2012) - Issued in early summer 2012

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of the summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/326685/Summer-starts-in-September

The coldest March in 130 years + one of the snowiest ever (2013) + Copy of Spring forecast 2013 issued to subscribers from 5 months ahead

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said more wintry showers in March could make it the “snowiest on record”. He said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time. “There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”


The coldest USA winter in 100 years (2013/14) + Copy of U.S. Winter forecast 2013/14 issued to subscribers from 9 months ahead


(All of these weather 100 year weather events also hold major significance for our future climate and weather patterns)

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 21st July 2014 (17:46) - James Madden





The following autumn membership sale offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited period of time - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead/seasonal forecasts (normally priced at £10 each) for the subscription duration of 1 to 3 years
  • 1 Year Full Subscription For £14.99 In The Link Below* - Normally £74.99
  • 3 Year Full Subscription For £27.99 In The Link Below* - Normally £174.99
DOUBLE UP INTRODUCTORY AUTUMN OFFER!

1 year subs above - will receive a 2 year full subscription
3 year subs above - will receive a 6 year full subscription

http://www.exactaweather.com/Autumn_Sale.html

Current subscribers can also extend their memberships with the above offers

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