Mild December? + What is really going on? + IMPORTANT rest of December & January update
High pressure will be a dominating feature throughout the start to this week, resulting in relatively dry and more settled weather across a good bulk of the country. It will also feel rather mild for the time of the year, with the increased risk of some heavy rain and strong winds developing later in the week (especially in parts to the west).
However, as with November, what is being projected by standard weather models in the upper atmosphere, may not necessarily be reflected upon in actual surface temperatures for this forecasting period (why so many short-range weather forecasts were inaccurate about a mild November).
For example, this week will not be as straight forward as what has seemed a certainty over the weekend from all other forecasters and TV forecasts. Although daytime temperatures may feature above normal to begin with, there will still be some rather cool days across the country throughout this week, in particular, on Wednesday and Thursday. Evening temperatures will also drop rather dramatically at times throughout this week, bringing the risk of frosts and developing fog patches, especially in some parts to the south of the county. Thereafter is also likely to feature more near to below average temperatures for the time of the year and in the run up to the start of the festive period.
Temperatures are then likely to become colder than average for the remainder of December (potentially very cold), with the increased risk for some widespread snow events for in or around the forecasting period of the 23rd - 31st December.
It is also important to remember that the Met Office have also forecast a colder than average December in their much shorter range forecast, that was issued only 18 days ago @ http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/c/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf
The Exacta Weather 4 month ahead and final winter forecast for 2013/14 also stated for the December period that:
"Some periods of moderation and extremely windy conditions are also likely to develop at various stages throughout December 2013, and in comparison to the expectations of the January 2014 forecasting period."
January is then likely to follow suit as an exceptionally cold month (confidence is very high), and could prove to be potentially record-breaking in terms of the cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop. This period is also something that has been clearly identified as a major concern within the long-range winter forecasts and various media articles for the UK and Ireland, from what will be 9 months ahead of the actual event occurring. The reason why certain 'individuals/weather companies' who have no long-range forecasting achievements to speak of themselves, are trying their utmost best to manipulate my forecast now (as they have an idea that the pinnacle point of my long-range winter forecast is now likely to develop in January).
For the first month of the new year, James Madden believes that a scenario "similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible". Exacta Weather also correctly forecast the record highs of July this summer and that the hot weather would tail off from there (6 months in advance).
James believes the prolonged cold spell will begin the day before Christmas Eve and continue until mid February - when there is a chance milder conditions will bring some relief.
(Note** February has some 'unusual' and conflicting forecasting data).
“In particular, in January, which could replicate December 2010 and see temperatures hovering at several degrees below the seasonal average for a prolonged period of time.”
Did you also know that? + November PDF forecast that was issued to subscribers + explanation
72 of the last 100 Novembers were 'warmer' than the one we just experienced (2013). So although we never saw the record-breaking cold and snow episodes that were originally suggested in my long-range forecast for autumn, we did still experience a rather cold month with a number of snow events (see NOVEMBER SNOW pictures further below). In addition to this the most significant cold and snowy period was from around the 20th - 25th of the month (as suggested in the 7 month ahead forecast).
Please note that the UK & Ireland month ahead forecast also downgraded the potentially record-breaking November, which was issued at the same time as every other forecast for an above average/very mild November. However, I still correctly forecast that it would be a colder than average November with snow events + rain turning to snow in places (please see link below for the UK & Ireland November forecast to subscribers).
Am I not allowed to change my forecast for what is still classed as a long-range forecast in standard meteorology and proved to be more accurate??? + this forecast was issued at the same time as all the mild November forecasts!
It is very easy to swap and change your mind on model suggestions every day for standard meteorologists/other weather companies. This obviously works well for them and is what they are comfortable with, yet they still make frequent errors in what is very short range in terms of weather forecasting. Personally, I don't really see the point and what this achieves in the advancement of long-range weather forecasting, as there is no real skill or an attempt to make progression in the field of long-range meteorology and in something that is classed an 'inexact science' with this type of approach to forecasting.
For example; I personally know of only one other forecaster that also correctly forecast one of the most major weather events in recent times (December 2010) in advance of standard meteorology. For this year alone, I know of no other forecasters that was able to forecast the record-breaking March and the timing of the summer heatwave (both 2013) from several months in advance.
My aim is to offer something with more proven consistency as a whole in terms of long-range weather forecasting, rather than change my mind every other day on the basis of model suggestions. Yes, sometimes there will be inaccuracies or discrepancies in this 'inexact science', but more often than not (without blowing my own trumpet), the overall essence or timing of specific events in my long-range forecasts is beyond comparison. This is also how it will remain, until others who would like to forecast such events, move away from their beloved models and think somewhat differently.
UPDATE ADDED: Monday 9th December 2013 - James Madden (13:01)
White Christmas Betting Report + January UK & IRE month ahead forecast @
Christmas ONLY special offer for new 6m & 12m subscribers @
Weather Wars Update & My Accuracy
Weather Wars: Met Office denies predicting three months of exceptionally cold weather amid reports of Britain's coldest winter ever!
So it's not acceptable when the Met Office are misquoted in articles or headlines are misinterpreted!
For example the recent six inches of snow headline (please see link below). I did feature within the article, but I simply stated in quotation marks that “This is where it all begins in terms of a long hard winter.” Nothing else about six inches of snow across the country was ever mentioned by myself or on the website updates.
The Independent article from above begins with reports of "the coldest winter ever". Who has said this? Because it certainly wasn't myself!
The Met Office forecast a cool and wet summer instead of a potential heatwave in a report for long term contingency planning in only May (1 month before summer and 4 months after my more accurate forecast).
The above Independent article then goes on to state on behalf of the Met Office: "Speculative forecasts appearing in the media and claiming to accurately and definitively forecast UK weather months ahead are therefore doomed to failure when analysed over a long period of time."
Anyone can analyse my forecasts and in comparison to what the Met Office have forecast in recent years. Anyone can swap and change their forecasts on a daily basis on model suggestions (standard and lazy meteorologists/weather companies), but I don't work like that, I never have. I stick to what my forecasting parameters are indicating, as they have served me exceptionally well to date.
The independent article then goes on to state on behalf of the Met Office “despite various experimental methods aimed at long-term forecasting it remains an inexact art”.