*NEW* UK/IRE month ahead forecast is now available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Ire_Month_Ahead.html

Unsettled then warmer in the northern half of the country

As we head into the weekend, the general theme is likely to remain unsettled for most. There will be periods of rain on Saturday, but especially more so across the northern half of the country, where it will also be particularly windy too. The rain is also likely to continue across parts of Ireland and Scotland into the evening too. However, some western parts may see some periods of sunshine breaking through at times, whereas more southern areas will remain dry with brighter spells coming through the cloud cover. Sunday will bring a relatively dry day for most, with some decent sunny spells developing in places through the cloud cover once again, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. There is also the possibility that temperatures may exceed 20C in parts of Scotland too. However, it will remain somewhat cooler in the southern half of the country in comparison to this, with periods of rain as we progress throughout the day. High pressure is then likely to dominate on this basis into the start of next week, before the return of some potentially cooler weather that will be accompanied by further showers and periods of rain later.

More to follow on this in the next update

Update added: 17th May 2013 - 18:58

 

Staying Rather Unsettled & Cold

As we head into the new working week the picture is set to remain unsettled with periods of rain for many parts of the country. Temperatures are also going to feature at below the seasonal average for many, with a rather cool theme on the cards for many too. A number of these showers will therefore result in some wintry precipitation across higher ground in parts of Scotland throughout this evening and into tomorrow. Elsewhere should begin on a rather dry note on Monday with some periods of sunshine. However, as we progress throughout the day, the development of showers will become quite widespread across the country with a mixture of sunny spells in between, in exception for some parts of the far south. It will also feel quite chilly too, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. The remainder of the working week also offers no real respite, with a continuation of relatively cool weather for the time of year and further showers, so in exception for the brief warm spell of last week, which was unexpected in our spring long-range forecast - issued several months ahead, the final part of our spring forecast should fare pretty accurately too (as with March and April). Any real hope of some more settled and warmer weather is now also likely in the latter part of this forecasting period and into the start of June. Tuesday will bring another day of sunshine and showers to the north, and a number of these showers are once again likely to fall as snow across higher ground in parts of the far north. Parts of the far south are also likely to turn exceptionally wet as heavy rain pushes northwards across the country throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday too. So overall another day of sunny spells and showers on Wednesday, some very heavy from the progression of the rain northwards from the south, before fading somewhat later in the evening. Some of these showers may also turn wintry throughout Wednesday evening in parts of the far north/Scotland. Thursday and into Friday are likely to fare somewhat better overall with some decent periods of sunshine developing in places, although showers and periods of rain are still likely to develop in places too. A number of these showers are also likely to turn a little heavy in parts of the north on Thursday.

UPDATE ADDED: 21:36 - 12th May 2013 

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Our detailed 2013/14 autumn/winter forecast is also available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Ultra_Long_Range.html

 

Remaining cold and wintry in places + Record-breaking March confirmed

The remainder of the working week will remain largely dry for many. It will also remain cold and way below the seasonal average in terms of temperature. This will also bring widespread frosts and icy patches, with the possibility of some freezing fog in places too. There will also still be some wintry/snow showers in places, but most of these are likely to be confined to eastern parts of the country, and parts of south east England. However, as we head into Thursday and Friday, some of these may become a little more scattered at times across some parts of northern England and Scotland too. There is also a possibility of some wintry weather in parts of the far south/south-west and Wales, but especially more so across higher ground at present for this part of the forecasting period. It is also likely to turn exceptionally windy for this part of the forecasting period too, and it will also feel exceptionally cold under these conditions for the start of April. As we head into next weekend, an area of low pressure pushing in from the west may initially bring some further wintry weather of sleet and snow across parts of the country as it spreads eastwards, this also includes some lower levels too. This could literally span from areas from the far north to the far south too, but especially more so in the north. However, the exact evolution on this is still fairly uncertain at present, and this may also bring some less colder weather than of late, along with some periods of rain in places too. However, temperatures are still likely to be below-average for the time of the year.

This also comes after a record-breaking March, which turned out to be the equal coldest March period since 1883 (130 years) in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), and as suggested in our spring forecast issued 150 days ahead.

However, Met Office provisional figures confirm a UK mean temperature of 2.2C and the second coldest March on record, and bypass the mean CET.
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/march-is-joint-second-coldest-on-record/ 

I like to use the mean CET as it is the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world. It is also one of the most fundamental indicators of climate change too.

Our original snow risk forecast also highlighted upon the period of the 16th - 24th March as the most likely time for any major snow events and blizzard conditions to develop - 30 days in advance.

Update added: Tuesday 2nd April 2013 17:28

Detailed Summer 2013 Weather Forecast - available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

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Remaining cold and wintry into April + some spring warmth at last?

The start to spring and March has experienced some of the heaviest snowfalls across the UK for over three decades, and one of the coldest March periods on record (possibly the coldest in over 100 years, dependent upon final minimum temperature adjustments). The original spring forecast issued 150 days ahead also stated: Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major COLD and SNOW episodes that are likely to develop.

As we head into the start of April, the picture is set to remain cold and wintry at times too. Some further falls of snow and wintry showers are also likely at times, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. The colder weather will also lead to the development of some sharp and widespread frosts for the time of the year. It is also likely to turn very windy at times throughout this part of the forecasting period, but especially more so in parts to the west and the northern half of the country. However, as we head into the second half of the month, there are indications of some much warmer temperatures and long periods of sunshine for many parts of the country, but especially more so across the southern half of the country to begin with. However, it is still likely to feel rather chilly in the evenings throughout this part of the forecasting period too. The higher pressure if and when it does develop, is also likely to lose control quite quickly, as it once again becomes colder for the latter part of this forecasting period. The alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see a continuation of the colder than average conditions throughout the whole month.

The following information was also provided to ITN news on Monday 24th March 2013 from myself:

"Apart from a few brief warm spells in April and May, it is likely to remain rather cold and wintry throughout the remainder of spring too. This is largely down to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how it intrinsically alters major factors such as the Jet Stream"


Our almost blank sun, courtesy of NASA (27th March 2013)

Where is this period of high solar activity/sunspots at according to all the experts?
Also see: http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf

The April section of the 2013 spring weather forecast that was issued to subscribers 150 days ahead also stated:

The April period is also likely to see a continuation of these wintry conditions to begin with, especially across the northern half of the country. It will also be particularly windy or very windy at times once again too. However, the April period is also likely to see a potential shift in this pattern as we progress throughout the month, leading to a much more settled and warmer spell of weather for many parts of the country. It is quite plausible that temperatures could range between 1C to 4C above the seasonal average across the country for the development of this given period, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. However, the colder than average theme is likely to return at some point towards the end of this period and as we head into the final month of the meteorological spring.

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Update added: Thursday 28th March 2013 14:15

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Cold and windy, with a significant risk of snow for many parts throughout next week + successful snow risk dates? & March Forecast (30 & 140 days ahead)

Forecasting period - 18th to 24th March

As we start the new working week it will once again turn rather cold for the time of the year, in particular, across parts of Scotland and northern England. The colder weather will also be accompanied by some windy conditions and wintry showers of hail, sleet, and snow in these parts throughout Monday too. There is also likely to be some wintry showers across higher ground in some parts of the south as we progress throughout Monday too. Tuesday and into Wednesday will then see it turn very cold for most parts, especially across parts of the north/Scotland. This will also be accompanied by some further widespread and wintry showers for many parts throughout Tuesday too, and a number of these are likely to turn quite heavy in places. This brings with it the risk of some snow accumulations in places, but especially more so across higher ground. Thursday and into Friday will bring a similar picture, but especially more so across parts of the west, Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. This is also likely to lead to some further accumulations of snow, but especially more so in parts of northern England and Wales, where some notable accumulations are possible. The wintry weather will also be accompanied by some strengthening winds for this part of the forecasting period, leading to the development of some drifting snow/blizzard conditions in places. These conditions are also likely to prevail into next weekend, but especially more so in some northern and eastern parts of the country. However, there is the potential for some periods of sunny and drier weather in parts, with the possibility of some milder conditions in parts of the south. 

Our snow risk forecast that was made available on the 17th February also stated (30 days ahead):

This is likely to lead to the development of some quite severe frosts and further snow events for a large portion of the remainder of the month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 16^th - 24^th March. There will also be some very strong winds at times, heightening the risk of some developing blizzards under the right conditions.

Our original spring forecast that was made available to subscribers in early November (nearly 140 days ahead) stated:

The start to spring 2013 and the March period is likely to see a continuation of winter conditions for the UK and Ireland. It is likely to be an unusually cold and exceptionally snowy month for many parts of the country. Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop. There is the potential for some exceptionally heavy falls of snow to develop across many parts of the country. The northern half of the country is also likely to experience the worst of the cold and snowy conditions. However, it is also likely that the southern half of the country will experience a number of major snow events at times throughout the March period too. It is highly likely that there will be a number of school closures and disruption to the public transport network across the country too (purchasers of this forecast will therefore receive a free snow risk dates and temperature forecast in the early part of 2013 for this given period).

The March period will also be particularly windy at times too, this will lead to the development of some especially high powered winds. This is also likely to result in some very dangerous blizzard conditions at times under the right conditions, especially in the southern half of the country. It is also likely to be a relatively dry start to spring in terms of rainfall amounts across the country, but not in terms of precipitation as snowfall.

The detailed Spring 2013 (March, April, May) and Summer 2013 (June. July, August) is now also available to subscribers in the link below

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

The following Daily Express article from the 20th February 2013 also stated: 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/378966/Britain-set-for-10-day-freeze-as-temperatures-plunge

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time.

“There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”

Update Added: Sunday 17th March 2013 (21:49) 

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Winter returns in spring as promised over 130 days ahead

It will turn unusually cold for the time of the year throughout Monday and into Tuesday across most parts of the country. Weather fronts will also bring outbreaks of snow to parts of the south and east, in particular, in parts of south-west England. This is also likely to lead to some notable snow accumulations in these parts at times too. The snow will also be accompanied by some rather strong winds leading to the development of some blizzard conditions for this part of the forecasting period, especially across higher ground in some parts of the south and east. Elsewhere will also be at risk from seeing some wintry showers throughout Monday and Tuesday too, but especially more so in some northern parts on Tuesday. This part of the forecasting period will also see the development of some widespread and severe frosts across the country and into Wednesday under clearer conditions in the evenings. Wednesday will also bring some further wintry showers across the northern half of the country. Thursday and into Friday are then likely to turn a little milder, especially in some parts of the south. However, there will still be the risk of some further snow across parts of the north, east, and south at times, but especially more so on Thursday. Some of this snow may also spread to other parts of the country too. As we progress throughout next weekend and into next week, the risk of some further snow and colder weather is likely to make a return, but especially more so across the northern half of the country at present.

Our original spring forecast that was made available to subscribers in early November (over 130 days ahead) stated:

The start to spring 2013 and the March period is likely to see a continuation of winter conditions for the UK and Ireland. It is likely to be an unusually cold and exceptionally snowy month for many parts of the country. Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop. There is the potential for some exceptionally heavy falls of snow to develop across many parts of the country. The northern half of the country is also likely to experience the worst of the cold and snowy conditions. However, it is also likely that the southern half of the country will experience a number of major snow events at times throughout the March period too. It is highly likely that there will be a number of school closures and disruption to the public transport network across the country too (purchasers of this forecast will therefore receive a free snow risk dates and temperature forecast in the early part of 2013 for this given period).

The March period will also be particularly windy at times too, this will lead to the development of some especially high powered winds. This is also likely to result in some very dangerous blizzard conditions at times under the right conditions, especially in the southern half of the country. It is also likely to be a relatively dry start to spring in terms of rainfall amounts across the country, but not in terms of precipitation as snowfall.

Our snow risk forecast that was made available on the 17th February also stated (nearly 30 days ahead):

This is likely to lead to the development of some quite severe frosts and further snow events for a large portion of the remainder of the month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 16^th - 24^th March. There will also be some very strong winds at times, heightening the risk of some developing blizzards under the right conditions.

The following Daily Express article from the 20th February 2013 also stated:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/378966/Britain-set-for-10-day-freeze-as-temperatures-plunge

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time.

“There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”

Update Added: Sunday 10th March 2013 (17:36)
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