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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Summer 2014



 




  The following summer offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited time period - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead/seasonal forecasts for the subscription duration including Autumn & Winter 2014/15 (normally priced at £10 each)


http://www.exactaweather.com/HOT__Summer_Sale.html

1 Year Full Subscription For £12.99* - Normally £74.99
3 Year Full Subscription For £24.99* - Normally £174.99
5 Year Full Subscription For £44.99* - Normally £249.99

Current subscribers can also extend their memberships with the above offers.

(The 5 year offer also includes FREE essentials of climate change book HERE)


Solar Activity Update - Impact On Upcoming Autumn/Winter? + Weekly Update

Solar activity has currently took a nose-dive to very low levels and this is likely to have a significant bearing on our autumn and winter weather patterns later this year/early next year. At present there are only a number of tiny sunspots on the visible solar disc and we recently experienced our first spotless day in a number of years, something that is likely to become prominent throughout the coming years and decades due to a less magnetically active sun.



IMAGE COURTESY OF SOHO/NASA 21st July (2014)

We have already seen the weakest solar max in at least a century, something that was indicated as a possibility for solar cycle 24 many years earlier via Exacta Weather/our YouTube channel here. These early and recent indications do not bode well and in consideration of how far we are away from the next solar minimum, and the likely impact that this will have on the majority of our future summer and in particular, winter weather patterns.



EXAMPLE OF HOW THE SOLAR DISC SHOULD LOOK DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM AND SOLAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS (ABOVE)

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Autumn 2014 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Weather models don't consider solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns between now and then, and this could well be something that they really won't pick up on until much further down the line.

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line.

The UK, Ireland and U.S. Autumn/Fall & Winter forecasts for 2014/15 are available to view in the links below:



This type of analysis has also allowed previous long range forecasts published via Exacta Weather to identify the coldest December in 100 years (2010), the wettest summer in 100 years (2012), the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S winter in 100 years (2013/14).

The coldest December in 100 years (2010)

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.”(Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).

The wettest summer in 100 years (2012) - Issued in early summer 2012

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of the summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/326685/Summer-starts-in-September

The coldest March in 130 years + one of the snowiest ever (2013) + Copy of Spring forecast 2013 issued to subscribers from 5 months ahead

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said more wintry showers in March could make it the “snowiest on record”. He said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time. “There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”


The coldest USA winter in 100 years (2013/14) + Copy of U.S. Winter forecast 2013/14 issued to subscribers from 9 months ahead


(All of these weather 100 year weather events hold major significance for our future climate and weather patterns)

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 21st July 2014 (17:46) - James Madden

 

The warm/hot weather continues - as suggested in the 5 month ahead summer forecast for this period

High pressure will dominate throughout this week to give some very warm to hot conditions overall. This is likely to see temperatures rising to the mid to high 20s in parts of the north and west from tomorrow onwards, and parts of the south are likely to see maximum temperatures nearing towards or exceeding the 30C mark once again. The warmest day of the year could be matched or surpassed once again within this developing period (32C was recorded on Friday 18th July and several locations also exceeded 30C). However, some further showers of a heavy and thundery nature are likely to develop at times, but the majority of these will be more prominent in some parts to the south of the country and potentially in some parts to the west in the later part of the forecasting period. Temperatures are now likely to stay well above average for the foreseeable and into the start of August as relatively dry, settled and warm/hot conditions prevail across most parts of the country as high pressure continues to influence our weather patterns.

 James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: "High pressure will dominate throughout this week to give some very warm to hot conditions overall. "This is likely to see temperatures rising to the mid to high 20s in parts of the north and west from tomorrow [Tuesday], parts of the south are likely to see maximum temperatures nearing or exceeding the 30C mark.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/490335/Britain-s-heatwave-to-last-another-ten-days


The 5 month ahead summer forecast highlighted that the most prominent period of 'widespread' warmth and settled weather would be likely to occur throughout the latter part of July and into the first half of August.

It also stated the following in regards to the Commonwealth Games being held in Glasgow - Issued 2nd April 2014 to subscribers 

The timing of the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow (23rd July - 3rd August) could prove to be impeccable in terms of the warmest and more settled spell of weather throughout this summer for Scotland, despite the risk of some dominant cloud cover that will also make it feel muggy at times.

The following Daily Mirror article from Monday 14th July 2014 stated the following:


Exacta Weather expert James Madden also predicted “temperatures in excess of 30C”, adding: “It will become progressively hotter and drier across the country as hot air builds up from the south.

“There’s even a chance maximum temperatures could hit 35C (95F) by the end of the week in some southern and eastern areas.”

The following front page of the Daily Express from Wednesday July 16th also stated the following:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, says temperatures will soar for at least a week and "could even climb to 95F in parts of the South and South-east."



People in many parts of the country were left scratching their heads at the Met Office weekend forecast after finding themselves basking in hot sunny weather, with highs of almost 26C near London and on the south coast on Sunday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10979439/Warm-weather-to-continue-says-Met-Office-as-it-defends-forecasting-accuracy.html

The Exacta Weather update posted on this page at 7am on Thursday 17th July stated:

Sunday is likely to offer a more settled day in comparison to Saturday for a good bulk of the country, but some further thundery showers may still exist in places, in particular, in some parts to the east of the country.

The Exacta Weather update posted on this page at 7am on Thursday 17th July stated the following in reference to potential flooding on Saturday:

This will also bring the risk of some flash flooding in places, in particular, in some parts of the Midlands and the southern half of the country.

http://www.expressandstar.com/picture-galleries/news-pictures/2014/07/19/flash-floods-as-heavy-rain-hits-west-midlands/

Flooding events did occur in parts of the Midlands and Sunday fared much better across large parts of the country as suggested in our forecast, but nowhere else experienced any flooding or large hail as indicated from elsewhere.

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 21st July 2014 (15:02) - James Madden





  The following summer offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited time period - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead/seasonal forecasts for the subscription duration including Autumn & Winter 2014/15 (normally priced at £10 each)


http://www.exactaweather.com/HOT__Summer_Sale.html

1 Year Full Subscription For £12.99* - Normally £74.99
3 Year Full Subscription For £24.99* - Normally £174.99
5 Year Full Subscription For £44.99* - Normally £249.99

Current subscribers can also extend their memberships with the above offers.

(The 5 year offer also includes FREE essentials of climate change book HERE)