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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Summer 2015 + Autumn & Winter




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Storms & Flash-Floods Arrive On Cue + Next Big Heatwave Update

Storms & Flash-Flooding Hit Parts Of The South - As Indicated In Our Earlier Forecast Indications

Exacta Weather first warned about these fatal thunderstorms/potential flooding/extreme lightning in our long-range forecasts from several months ahead for these dates + for public consumption in the Daily Mirror article from 25th June - which stated the following:

Exacta Weather's James Madden said: "There will also be the risk for some potentially heavy downpours and vigorous thunderstorm activity later next week, in particular, in parts of the SOUTH."



http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-imminent-heatwave-could-5952505







http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/588847/Heatwave-spectacular-overnight-lightning-thunder-devastating-floods-UK-Britain

The upcoming week will bring a more changeable and fresher feel in comparison to the extreme temperatures we experienced during last week. However, there will be a bit of a north and south divide throughout the upcoming week. Parts of the south will hang on to the more settled weather conditions and some rather warm temperatures that are likely to range in the mid 20s, whilst parts further north will be more changeable with periods of showery weather at times. However, it will still feel pleasant in parts of the north at times when the sun does come out in between the showers.

As the week progresses it will become even warmer and start to turn more settled for many as high pressure starts to build in once again, but some occasional showers further north can't be entirely ruled out at times. Temperatures will start to rise again by the end of the week and into next weekend, and we could see highs in the mid to high 20s being achieved in parts of the south. Parts of the north could also see some pleasantly warm temperatures developing in the low 20s, maybe even a little higher.

This is likely to lead to some even warmer conditions in the week starting the 13th July, but our next major heat surge of potentially very high temperatures is more likely to develop in the latter part of July and into August.

This will also precede what is likely to be a barbecue August for many parts of the country as high pressure and very hot temperatures build in from the near continent for some quite extensive periods (as indicated in our 7 month ahead 2015 summer report for this exact period).

There is every opportunity that we could see the UK maximum temperature record coming under threat within this period. However, with the extreme heat comes the risk of some exceptionally severe thunderstorms, large hail and very heavy downpours. Unfortunately, these thunderstorms and deluges of rain could bring some freak flooding events to certain parts of the country within the final third of the meteorological summer.

Our 7 month ahead summer forecast stated that the first major heatwave of the 'summer' would be for the latter part of June and into July. However, it also stated that another major and more significant/prolonged heatwave would occur for another period after this...

Our month ahead forecast to subscribers + our public update from early last week also stated the following for the week starting the 6th July:

 "Next week is likely to feel somewhat fresher to this week. However, temperatures could still reach the mid to high 20s in parts of the south within this period, and parts further north could still attain temperatures in the low 20s in the BEST of the sunshine".

More enhanced details on upcoming warm/hot weather, the big heatwave and potential thunderstorms/flooding are covered in the summer updates and month ahead reports for subscribers inc maps/regions.

Please note that the above update was posted an earlier time to subscribers

UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 5th July 2015 (20:54) - James Madden

 
      
 
 
 


The First Major Heatwave Of The Summer To Arrive On Cue For The UK & Ireland - But How Long Will It Last?

The upcoming week will see it becoming very warm to hot across many parts of the country. Wednesday could see temperatures peaking at 30C in parts of northern England, and parts of the South could record high temperatures in the region of 33-36C for the middle part of the week and into next weekend. 26-27C in parts of Northern Ireland on Friday. The evenings will also feel rather warm and muggy, and night time temperatures could stay close to or above a sultry 20C in places. A slightly cooler and more bearable day can be expected on Thursday, but it will still be very warm for many, and we will see a return to even warmer conditions on Friday.

The warm weather also looks like it could hang around for at least a few weeks for most parts, however, there will be some showers and outbreaks of widespread thunderstorms to contend with from the latter part of the week and into next weekend, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country. Next week is likely to feel somewhat fresher to this week. However, temperatures could still reach the mid to high 20s in parts of the south within this period, and parts further north could still attain temperatures in the low 20s in the best of the sunshine. A continuation of the nice start to July looks set to continue for another week at the very least, especially in parts of the south with just a slight reduction in overall temperatures for these parts.

Further details are covered within the UK and Ireland subscribers July forecast for mid-month and our expectations for the latter part of July and into August.

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 29th June 2015 (13:10) - James Madden

Please note that the following update/information was posted to subscribers at an earlier time  


Hottest Spell Of The Year To Arrive On Cue For The UK & Ireland


Temperatures will begin to rise quite rapidly throughout the early part of next week as warmer winds veer in from a more southerly direction (From Monday 29th June). This will bring some increasingly warm to hot weather with periods of bright sunshine developing for many. Temperatures could climb as high as the mid to high 20s in parts of the north and south -making this the hottest spell of weather to date for this year. However, there will be the risk of some occasional rain at times, in particular, in parts of the far north. There will also be the risk for some potentially heavy downpours and vigorous thunderstorm activity later next week, in particular, in parts of the south. However, as a whole we can look forward to a rather settled and warm period of weather to start the second month of the meteorological summer and for much of next week.


Our 7 month ahead preliminary 2015 summer forecast that was issued on the 23rd December 2014 stated for this exact period + another period that is still to come:


A number of notable periods of pleasant conditions and a more notable warmish/hot spell could develop throughout the latter part of June/start of July. This could see temperatures initially exceeding the mid to high 20s for several days in parts of the south to begin with, before becoming more widespread in other parts of the country later.


UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 24th June 2014 (15:36) - James Madden


Please note that the following update/information was posted to subscribers at an earlier time


Warm & Settled With Some Rain In Places - Atlantic Storms?

The upcoming week will see the overall theme becoming quite warm and settled in the developing sunshine for many. However, there will be some mixed weather at times, in particular in some parts to the north and west. In exception for the odd outbreak of rain, many other parts should be relatively dry and settled overall with variable cloud cover to contend with. Some parts of the south could become very warm at times towards the latter part of the week, and temperatures could also reach or surpass the mid 20s in these parts in the best of the warm sunshine. It will also also feel warm in the sunshine for elsewhere or muggy at times in most other parts of the country, any hindrances will be more restricted to far northern and western parts, although some parts further south will also share within the widespread showery activity later in the week. A number of these showers could turn potentially heavy and thundery in places as they begin to push eastwards across the country throughout Friday and into next weekend.
 

The last time we checked the weather with third party forecasters (before the weekend) we were being forewarned of Atlantic storms on the horizon for the upcoming week + in the TV forecasts on Friday 19th. Now we are hearing terminology such as; High pressure, settled, dry and warm weather for many from the same forecasters for this week.

Our month ahead forecast to subscribers for the period 21st - 30th June stated the following (issued in May):

This part of the forecasting period is also likely to see high pressure building again on our current forecast indications. This will also be mixed in with some interspersions of changeable weather conditions at times, in particular, in some parts to the north of the country. The build of high pressure will bring some further settled weather and quite warm temperatures from the north to the south of the country at times, and there will also be some further spells of decent sunshine, in particular, in the southern half of the country - it may also feel muggy under variable cloud cover within this period.

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 22nd June 2015 (23:05pm) - James Madden

Please note that the following update/information was posted to subscribers at an earlier time




Britain faces FREEZING winters as slump in solar activity threatens 'Little Ice Age'

A recent Met Office-led study is now warning that Britain faces years of unusually cold winters due to low solar activity.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/586404/Britain-freezing-winters-slump-solar-activity

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-britain-facing-mini-5933890

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity levels, or solar flux, are currently estimated to be at their lowest for the last 100 years. "We will head into another rapid decline throughout the remainder of the upcoming year. "On the basis of past solar activity levels it is an inevitability that solar and sunspot activity will continue to fall off the charts in the coming years and decades, including the upcoming winter period of 2015/16."

Scientists admit we may be headed into a Little Ice Age, but keep on blathering about “global warming”

http://www.infiniteunknown.net/2015/06/26/scientists-admit-we-may-be-headed-into-a-little-ice-age-but-keep-on-blathering-about-global-warming/

“Solar activity levels, or solar flux, are currently estimated to be at their lowest for the last 100 years,” agreed James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather.


Our much earlier comments within various media and dated scientific claims + our methodology for long-range weather and climate forecasting + weather events that we have forecast over the past 5-6 years in the links below:


http://www.exactaweather.com/Science___Methodology.html


http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html


UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 24th June 2014 (15:36) - James Madden

Please note that the following update/information was posted to subscribers at an earlier time

 
     
 
 
     



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