Solar Activity Update - Impact On Upcoming Autumn/Winter? + Weekly Update
Solar activity has currently took a nose-dive to very low levels and this is likely to have a significant bearing on our autumn and winter weather patterns later this year/early next year. At present there are only a number of tiny sunspots on the visible solar disc and we recently experienced our first spotless day in a number of years, something that is likely to become prominent throughout the coming years and decades due to a less magnetically active sun.
IMAGE COURTESY OF SOHO/NASA 21st July (2014)
We have already seen the weakest solar max in at least a century, something that was indicated as a possibility for solar cycle 24 many years earlier via Exacta Weather/our YouTube channel here. These early and recent indications do not bode well and in consideration of how far we are away from the next solar minimum, and the likely impact that this will have on the majority of our future summer and in particular, winter weather patterns.
EXAMPLE OF HOW THE SOLAR DISC SHOULD LOOK DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM AND SOLAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS (ABOVE)
A snippet from the UK & Ireland Autumn 2014 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:
Weather models don't consider solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns between now and then, and this could well be something that they really won't pick up on until much further down the line.
A snippet from the UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:
Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line.
The UK, Ireland and U.S. Autumn/Fall & Winter forecasts for 2014/15 are available to view in the links below:
This type of analysis has also allowed previous long range forecasts published via Exacta Weather to identify the coldest December in 100 years (2010), the wettest summer in 100 years (2012), the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S winter in 100 years (2013/14).
The coldest December in 100 years (2010)
James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.”(Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).
The wettest summer in 100 years (2012) - Issued in early summer 2012
James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of the summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.
The coldest March in 130 years + one of the snowiest ever (2013) + Copy of Spring forecast 2013 issued to subscribers from 5 months ahead
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said more wintry showers in March could make it the “snowiest on record”. He said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time. “There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”
The coldest USA winter in 100 years (2013/14) + Copy of U.S. Winter forecast 2013/14 issued to subscribers from 9 months ahead
(All of these weather 100 year weather events hold major significance for our future climate and weather patterns)
UPDATE ADDED: Monday 21st July 2014 (17:46) - James Madden