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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Summer 2014



 




  The following summer offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited time period - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead/seasonal forecasts for the subscription duration including Autumn & Winter 2014/15 (normally priced at £10 each)


http://www.exactaweather.com/HOT__Summer_Sale.html

1 Year Full Subscription For £12.99* - Normally £74.99
3 Year Full Subscription For £24.99* - Normally £174.99
5 Year Full Subscription For £44.99* - Normally £249.99

Current subscribers can also extend their memberships with the above offers.

(The 5 year offer also includes FREE essentials of climate change book HERE)
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A Hot/Heatwave August On The Way For The UK & Ireland!!!

The original subscribers summer reports from 12 and 5 months ahead stated that August could be the hottest month of summer with well above average temperatures.

The UK & Ireland month ahead report to subscribers also stated that:

There would be some major warm to hot incursions of weather leading up to the mid-month point, and that we could also expect some further surges of warm to hot weather in the second half of August too (Issued 22nd July).

The following Daily Express article from over 3 months earlier also stated the following:

James Madden said: “Some periods of warm and settled weather can be expected throughout
this summer – in particular in the latter part of July and into the first half of August when
many parts of the country could see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 20s 'AT TIMES'.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/469046/UK-weather-latest-Britain-set-for-THREE-MONTHS-of-sun-in-mega-heatwave

A generally settled theme and widespread warm/hot spell with temperatures generally ranging in the mid to high 20s developed across large parts of the country throughout the latter part of July + there is more to come in August as stated over 3 months earlier.

The following Daily Express article from Friday 1st August also stated here:

James Madden of Exacta Weather said: “As we progress throughout next week and into the following week (starting 11th August) it will gradually become more settled and warmer.

“It is also plausible that temperatures could near or exceed the 86F (30C) mark once again.

“This warm-to-hot period is also likely to become quite an extensive feature for several days as high pressure builds across the country.”

The 2 x UK & Ireland August heatwave reports + specific regions/maps (England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales) + Autumn/Winter 2014/15 are available to view within our summer offers above that must end soon - They also include details of what was forecast from 1, 5 and 12 months ahead + details of pending thunderstorms/floods (before any other forecasters).



Remaining Warm - North & South Divide

Temperatures will remain largely above average for many as we progress throughout this week and into the start of August. 
Tuesday and Wednesday will offer some fairly settled weather and reasonable spells of warm sunshine for many parts of the country, in exception for some occasional showers or patchy light rain in parts of the north/Scotland and northern Ireland. Parts of the south are likely to see temperatures nearing towards the high 20s in places throughout Tuesday, and parts of the north will also remain on the warm side in the developing sunshine within this period. The remainder of the week and into next weekend will bring the risk of some further showers or patchy light rain at times in parts to the north of the country, in among periods of sunshine as low pressure threatens. More central and southern areas are likely to fare better in terms of the best sunny spells and warmer temperatures overall. However, temperatures are still likely to be above average for many, and parts of the south/Midlands will continue to see temperatures ranging in the mid 20s at the very least later this week. Some of these warmer conditions and sunny periods may also become more extensive and begin to edge further northwards into other parts of the country by next weekend. However, this could activate some heavy and potentially thundery showers in places as it does so.

TO PUT THIS WEEK'S TEMPERATURES IN PERSPECTIVE - THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR LONDON IN JULY IS AROUND 18-19C (64-66F)

The following Daily Express article from Thursday 31st July also stated:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Temperatures will remain largely above average for many as we progress throughout this week and into the start of August.

“Temperatures are still likely to be above average for many, and parts of the south/Midlands will see continue to see temperatures ranging in the mid 20s [77F]at the very least later this week.

 “However, this could activate some heavy and potentially thundery showers in places as it does so.”

This is also outlined in the following Met Office related heatwave articles from the Telegraph/Independent:

The hot spell is expected to continue for at least three weeks with the occasional thunderstorm or heavy shower, according to the Met Office.

Nicola Maxey, of the Met Office, said: "We are looking at settled sunny and dry weather into the middle of August, with above average temperatures and occasional summer showers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10984211/Heatwave-to-last-well-into-August-forecasters-say-as-schools-break-up.html


Eddy Carroll, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “The rest of July will see temperatures into the mid to high twenties in places and, although there is a risk of showers, for most the fine, largely dry and warm weather looks like it could well persist into August.

The longer-term forecast is for “recent generally settled conditions to persist [into mid-August], with mostly fine and dry weather continuing across more southern parts”. “Temperatures should remain above average for most, possibly turning locally hot for a time in the south,” forecasters added.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-heatwave-to-stay-until-midaugust-as-schools-break-up-for-balmy-start-to-holidays-9622612.html

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 28th July 2014 (14:00) - James Madden





Summer Forecast Review 2014 - To Date

The initial 2014 Summer forecast and the following Daily Express article from 7th April 2014 stated the following in reference to this summer (over 3 months earlier)

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/469046/UK-weather-latest-Britain-set-for-THREEMONTHS-
of-sun-in-mega-heatwave


James Madden said: “Some periods of warm and settled weather can be expected throughout
this summer – in particular in the latter part of July and into the first half of August when
many parts of the country could see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 20s 'AT TIMES'.


“Some warmer incursions of weather are also plausible from the mid-month points in both

June and July, in particular, in the southern half of the country.


Conclusion

A generally settled theme and a prominent and widespread warm/hot spell with
temperatures generally ranging in the mid to high 20s developed across large parts of the country throughout the latter part of July + more to come in August.


A warmer incursion of weather was also noted in mid-June when temperatures reached 26.8C

in parts of the south on the 13th and 27C later in parts of both Scotland and Ireland on the
18th. A further incursion of warmer weather was also noted in mid-July when temperatures
reached 32C in parts of the south on the 18th.


In essence, the timing and overall scale within our original summer report and the information
provided to the Daily Express has fared pretty well to date. In exception for either side of
these warm spells not being as cool as initially expected, although they was cooler than the
suggested warmer incursions, in exception for the start of July. However, some fairly unsettled and wet 
weather also developed at times within these given periods as indicated.

 


Solar Activity Update - Impact On Upcoming Autumn/Winter? + Weekly Update

Solar activity has currently took a nose-dive to very low levels and this is likely to have a significant bearing on our autumn and winter weather patterns later this year/early next year. At present there are only a number of tiny sunspots on the visible solar disc and we recently experienced our first spotless day in a number of years, something that is likely to become prominent throughout the coming years and decades due to a less magnetically active sun.



IMAGE COURTESY OF SOHO/NASA 21st July (2014)

We have already seen the weakest solar max in at least a century, something that was indicated as a possibility for solar cycle 24 many years earlier via Exacta Weather/our YouTube channel here. These early and recent indications do not bode well and in consideration of how far we are away from the next solar minimum, and the likely impact that this will have on the majority of our future summer and in particular, winter weather patterns.



EXAMPLE OF HOW THE SOLAR DISC SHOULD LOOK DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM AND SOLAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS (ABOVE)

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Autumn 2014 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Weather models don't consider solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns between now and then, and this could well be something that they really won't pick up on until much further down the line.

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line.

The UK, Ireland and U.S. Autumn/Fall & Winter forecasts for 2014/15 are available to view in the links below:



This type of analysis has also allowed previous long range forecasts published via Exacta Weather to identify the coldest December in 100 years (2010), the wettest summer in 100 years (2012), the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S winter in 100 years (2013/14).

The coldest December in 100 years (2010)

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.”(Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).

The wettest summer in 100 years (2012) - Issued in early summer 2012

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of the summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/326685/Summer-starts-in-September

The coldest March in 130 years + one of the snowiest ever (2013) + Copy of Spring forecast 2013 issued to subscribers from 5 months ahead

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said more wintry showers in March could make it the “snowiest on record”. He said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time. “There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”


The coldest USA winter in 100 years (2013/14) + Copy of U.S. Winter forecast 2013/14 issued to subscribers from 9 months ahead


(All of these weather 100 year weather events hold major significance for our future climate and weather patterns)

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 21st July 2014 (17:46) - James Madden

 

The warm/hot weather continues - as suggested in the 5 month ahead summer forecast for this period

High pressure will dominate throughout this week to give some very warm to hot conditions overall. This is likely to see temperatures rising to the mid to high 20s in parts of the north and west from tomorrow onwards, and parts of the south are likely to see maximum temperatures nearing towards or exceeding the 30C mark once again. The warmest day of the year could be matched or surpassed once again within this developing period (32C was recorded on Friday 18th July and several locations also exceeded 30C). However, some further showers of a heavy and thundery nature are likely to develop at times, but the majority of these will be more prominent in some parts to the south of the country and potentially in some parts to the west in the later part of the forecasting period. Temperatures are now likely to stay well above average for the foreseeable and into the start of August as relatively dry, settled and warm/hot conditions prevail across most parts of the country as high pressure continues to influence our weather patterns.

 James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: "High pressure will dominate throughout this week to give some very warm to hot conditions overall. "This is likely to see temperatures rising to the mid to high 20s in parts of the north and west from tomorrow [Tuesday], parts of the south are likely to see maximum temperatures nearing or exceeding the 30C mark.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/490335/Britain-s-heatwave-to-last-another-ten-days


The 5 month ahead summer forecast highlighted that the most prominent period of 'widespread' warmth and settled weather would be likely to occur throughout the latter part of July and into the first half of August.

The Commonwealth Games weather report for Glasgow/Scotland also stated - Issued 2nd April 2014 to subscribers 

The timing of the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow (23rd July - 3rd August) could prove to be impeccable in terms of the warmest and more settled spell of weather throughout this summer for Scotland, despite the risk of some dominant cloud cover that will also make it feel muggy at times.

The following Daily Mirror article from Monday 14th July 2014 stated the following:


Exacta Weather expert James Madden also predicted “temperatures in excess of 30C”, adding: “It will become progressively hotter and drier across the country as hot air builds up from the south.

“There’s even a chance maximum temperatures could hit 35C (95F) by the end of the week in some southern and eastern areas.”

The following front page of the Daily Express from Wednesday July 16th also stated the following:

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, says temperatures will soar for at least a week and "could even climb to 95F in parts of the South and South-east."



People in many parts of the country were left scratching their heads at the Met Office weekend forecast after finding themselves basking in hot sunny weather, with highs of almost 26C near London and on the south coast on Sunday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10979439/Warm-weather-to-continue-says-Met-Office-as-it-defends-forecasting-accuracy.html

The Exacta Weather update posted on this page at 7am on Thursday 17th July stated:

Sunday is likely to offer a more settled day in comparison to Saturday for a good bulk of the country, but some further thundery showers may still exist in places, in particular, in some parts to the east of the country.

The Exacta Weather update posted on this page at 7am on Thursday 17th July stated the following in reference to potential flooding on Saturday:

This will also bring the risk of some flash flooding in places, in particular, in some parts of the Midlands and the southern half of the country.

http://www.expressandstar.com/picture-galleries/news-pictures/2014/07/19/flash-floods-as-heavy-rain-hits-west-midlands/

Flooding events did occur in parts of the Midlands and Sunday fared much better across large parts of the country as suggested in our forecast, but nowhere else experienced any flooding or large hail as indicated from elsewhere.

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 21st July 2014 (15:02) - James Madden





  The following summer offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited time period - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead/seasonal forecasts for the subscription duration including Autumn & Winter 2014/15 (normally priced at £10 each)


http://www.exactaweather.com/HOT__Summer_Sale.html

1 Year Full Subscription For £12.99* - Normally £74.99
3 Year Full Subscription For £24.99* - Normally £174.99
5 Year Full Subscription For £44.99* - Normally £249.99

Current subscribers can also extend their memberships with the above offers.

(The 5 year offer also includes FREE essentials of climate change book HERE)