HURRICANE GONZALO UPDATE
There is a possibility that the remnants of hurricane Gonzalo could make it's way towards the UK during the middle to end part of next week (timing is uncertain at present and it could be earlier).
This would then cross the UK as a significant/deep low-pressure system (not a hurricane), and bring some rather stormy conditions in its wake. This would at the very least see some widespread heavy rain and strong to gusty winds developing in places across the country.
However, there is also an additional scenario that must be given some consideration within future developments here (this is by no means certain). If the remnants of hurricane Gonzalo makes an impact across the UK during the mid to end part of next week, this is also likely to coincide with a number of significantly cooler days within this period as some much colder air digs in from the north. So depending on the exact time of occurrence and possible impact (this is important and needs watching), this significant low pressure system could also bring some wintry weather or significant snow/blizzards across higher ground in parts of the north as it clashes with this colder air or potentially overnight (when cooler). There could even be the risk for some wintry/snow showers to develop across some much lower levels of the country, depending on how far south this colder air digs in and if the low pressure system hits us within this period.
Our 6 month ahead autumn forecast to subscribers and the following Mirror article from the 28th September also stated:
“Low pressure will become a more dominant feature and conditions will become largely unsettled, with above-average rainfall amounts across many parts of the UK & Ireland."
“A number of deep low pressure systems are also likely to bring some further periods of strong winds and high precipitation. There is also the risk for some wintry showers to develop within this period, most notably across higher ground in parts of the north, but they will not necessarily be restricted to these parts.”
UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 15th October 2014 (13:00) - James Madden
There are many strong signals that support a big freeze/cold & snowy for the UK & Ireland this winter (please read below):
HUGE SIBERIAN SNOW COVER!!!
A strong indicator for a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) throughout December to March for the UK and Ireland is the extent of the Siberian snow cover in October. There is normally around 1 million square KM of snow cover at this point, in comparison to the massive 5 million square KM at present.
This is a very strong indicator for a negative AO this winter, which allows cold Arctic air to become displaced across the UK & Ireland + it also offers strong support of our 5-6 month ahead pre-calculations for this period.
October Pattern Index
This also supports a weak Polar Vortex and is likely to lead to a blocked winter pattern for the UK and Ireland. Unlike last year the current readings have recorded a negative value for every single day of October to date, some of which have been quite significant.
Solar Activity Levels - An area we have covered extensively
Solar activity levels and the number of earth directed solar flares are also at a minimum, which is also likely to have a significant bearing on our winter weather patterns throughout this year.
S02 Emissions Iceland - Another area we have covered extensively
The large S02 (Sulphur dioxide) emissions from the volcanic activity in Iceland is also likely to contribute towards a much harsher winter throughout 2014/15. To date we have seen concentration levels similar to those of a large scale eruption, and it is these emissions that block out further sunlight to alter our climate and weather patterns.
IMPORTANT NOTE - Coming Weeks + October and into November
There is likely to be some colder intrusions of Arctic air, that will bring some potentially significant snow across "higher ground" + some 'potential' wintry showers to some lower levels than higher ground. However, this does not mean that the whole country or Ireland is going to see snow or be building snowmen/sledging within weeks. We have never stated anything different and we have been asking people/our followers to read what was provided to other media within "quotation marks" only.
Some colder intrusions will become prominent throughout the latter part of October and into November, when a number of Arctic intrusions are likely. However, these are likely to be restricted more to parts of the north, and there will still be some milder/warmer days thrown in between these colder intrusions. Some significant snow will be likely across higher ground, and some wintry showers to some lower levels can also not be entirely ruled out
Autumn & Winter 2014/15 Update + Important Website Changes (below).
Important information from our 5 month ahead 2014/15 winter forecast is now available for public consumption via the following Daily Express article - for what is likely to be an inevitable very cold & snowy winter for the UK & Ireland @ http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November
The article states the following from our long range forecast in "quotation marks" - which is of the very highest confidence within our forecasting parameters (please take important note of this):
“The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/10, the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/11 which experienced the coldest December in 100 years."
The article also states from our long range forecast in "quotation marks"
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: “Over the coming weeks and into November, it is likely to turn progressively colder, even very cold at times, in particular, in parts of the north as northern blocking becomes a somewhat more prominent feature.
“This is likely to bring some significant snow across higher ground within this period."
A number of Arctic intrusions of cold air are likely during the latter part of October and into early November. This is likely to result in some significant snow across higher ground within this period. There may also be the increasing risk for some wintry showers or overnight snow to some lower levels than higher ground too - as indicated in what will then be the 6 month ahead autumn forecast.
Private Weather Companies
It's funny how a large number of private weather companies can pass judgement on something - but then claim that they can't offer an insight or any certainties in regard to what will happen this winter??? (very contradictory).
Unfortunately, they are too quick to forget their own involvement within articles and incorrect forecasts (short & long range) that Exacta Weather opposed and had no involvement within for:
1. 3 month spring heatwave (2014)
2. The hottest summer ever (2014 + 75% certainty)
3. Hot autumn + record-breaking October (2014)
They do this out of fear and their own insecurity/inability to forecast long range weather events to their clients. They also choose to pass judgement on certain variables such as the headline alone (also very contradictory), without looking deeper into the content of what has actually been said (the same and simplistic logic that they apply to their weather forecasting).
Do they do the same with their forecasts or their involvement with the above incorrect information that they provided for public consumption? No not at all! They hide them away and offer no insight as to where or why they went wrong!
However, they will be more than happy to feature within articles as certain weather events are staring us in the face throughout this winter (which anybody can do with little skill or knowledge of conventional meteorology).
It's a malicious and vindictive old world within the circle of weather forecasting... I wonder why?£?£
Autumn Storm Arrives - Almost On Cue
Our 5 month ahead autumn forecast stated that a major autumn storm would hit the UK for "in or around the 12th October".
It also stated to allow for a slight deviation in exact timing as this forecast was made from 5 months ahead. Earlier last week we experienced the following that made front page news (6 days earlier than suggested from 5 months ahead).
Global Cooling + Solar Science
There has recently been a large number of scientific articles over the past month in reference to Global Cooling (see below).
The title of our blog that dates back to 2009 is even called “Global Cooling & New Ice Age UK” - (Ice Age circulation patterns). All of these scientific statements were made when global warming still had a fairly tight stronghold upon the scientific and global community from the alarmists/Met Office (please feel free to read them - must click archives back to 2009) @ http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.co.uk/
Aired on BBC One in December 2010 - When Global Warming was still in high belief + false claims of high solar activity to come from many other credible scientists/NASA
James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.”(Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).
Big Autumn Heatwave On The Way This Weekend?
The coming week will see things remaining rather unsettled as areas of low pressure bring periods of heavy rain and windy conditions to the country at times. An area of high pressure looks likely to ridge in across parts of the south later in the week, and this could bring some temporary settled weather and milder temperatures for a number of days, in particular, in parts of the south.
A simple and very short lived rebuild of high pressure as indicated in our UK & Ireland month ahead forecast to subscribers for this period - before a reversion back to very unsettled and much cooler conditions, which stated:
However, high pressure may make an attempt at building back in within this period at times, and this may result in some drier and sunnier intervals, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country at times within the period of the 11th - 20th October.
Unless you are a subscriber to the full forecasts, you do not know what we have forecast for certain periods in advance of conventional meteorology - not the manipulated version from others with hidden agendas.
IMPORTANT LEGAL STATEMENT + WEBSITE CHANGES
Only certain information on particular weather events and climate will be posted on this page in future (probably on a weekly basis). The short and long range weather forecasts will now only be available to subscribers of our forecasts. Distribution and application of our forecast information or unauthorised use of the term Exacta Weather is strictly prohibited, and legal action will be taken against those who choose to do so, which may also give rise to a claim for damages through our legal representation. Any press/media/commercial usage of our forecast information must now also be approved by ourselves.
Our legal representation is currently taking further action and serving a desist notice to a number of certain individuals for trademark infringement of Exacta Weather, passing off, defamation and negligent misstatement - as outlined in the following terms and conditions of our website
UPDATE ADDED: MONDAY 13TH OCTOBER 2014 (15:38) - James Madden
Indian Summer/Autumn Warmth Continues - But For How Long?
Another mainly fine day with developing sunny periods has seen maximum temperatures ranging throughout 24-25C in parts of the south on Sunday (well above the seasonal average for the time of the year). High pressure is also likely to stay dominant throughout next week, and this will result in some further mild to very warm temperatures for the time of the year and decent periods of sunshine.
The following Telegraph article also quoted our 150 day ahead autumn forecast in reference to this:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: "A significant area of high pressure is likely to build in across many parts of the country towards the end of the month and into the early part of October, resulting in some even warmer and potentially very hot weather for the time of the year."
However, the warm weather could trigger off some potentially heavy and thundery showers in places as we progress throughout this week, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country. This may also bring the small risk of some localised surface flooding in these parts, due to some possible absorption problems because of the very dry conditions that we have experienced of late + in addition to the recent thunderstorms/flooding below.
The following Daily Express article from Monday 22nd September also stated:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said warm weather over the next few weeks could trigger thunderstorms.
He said: "September and into early October may offer some bursts of warmth and Indian summer type weather. "However, it is also likely to become unsettled at times within this period and any periods of developing warmth within this time frame is likely to be replaced with some potentially vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country, where some localised flooding events may occur."
The 5 month ahead UK and Ireland autumn forecast also stated (issued to subscribers in May):
The 2014 Autumn period is likely to experience a more near average to mild/warm theme at times to begin with, in particular, throughout the first half of the season (September to early/mid October). September and into early October may therefore still offer some bursts of warmth and Indian summer type weather. However, it is also likely to be rather unsettled at times within this period and any periods of developing warmth within this time frame is likely to be replaced with some unsettled weather or vigorous thunderstorm activity, in particular, in some parts to the south and west of the country, where some localised flooding events may occur.
The remainder of the week will also see some largely dry weather with periods of warm sunshine developing for many parts of the UK and Ireland. This will also see temperatures remaining at well above the seasonal average and a continuation of the autumn warmth/Indian summer type weather.
However, some frontal activity will bring some rain to parts of the far north and west at times during the middle part of the week, although this is likely to dissipate and become lighter natured in any progression to other parts of the country as high pressure remains in control.
The latter part of next week may see low pressure becoming somewhat more influential on our weather patterns, in particular, in some parts to the north and west of the country, and in particular in parts of Ireland. This would result in some potentially unsettled and wet weather for these parts, with a noticeable drop in temperatures too. However, some parts to the south and east of the country would remain more settled and on the warm side due to the influence of high pressure. It may also be possible for this high pressure to be more influential across other parts of the country within this specified period. This would restrict any unsettled weather to parts of the far north and west of the country/Ireland, or prevent it from making much of a widespread impact at all, or maybe until the following week (a tricky one to call overall).
A recent Mirror article also stated the following in reference to this:
James Madden, meteorologist with Exacta Weather, said: “High pressure is likely to build in from the south of the country in the early part of October. “This is likely to bring some further Indian summer-type weather and mild to warm conditions within this period for several days at the very least, in particular in southern and eastern parts of the country. “Although some areas will still be at risk of seeing some rain and showers at times, some further drier weather and decent spells of sunshine are likely to develop once again.” But he warned: “The middle part of October, possibly a little earlier, will see a major reversal of these mild and settled conditions. “Low pressure will become a more dominant feature and conditions will become largely unsettled, with above-average rainfall amounts across many parts of Ireland.
*NEW* Winter 2014/15 Update - UK & Ireland
One of the leading seasonal outlook models for long range weather and climate (Japan) is now also indicating a very cold winter for the UK and Ireland.
Our 5 month ahead winter report 1 issued to subscribers also stated in reference to this:
Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line (also includes major snow risk dates) @ http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html
UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 28th September 2014 (18:42) - James Madden
UK & Ireland Winter Weather Forecast 2014/15
Our UK & Ireland winter 2014/15 forecast defines a particular period of exceptional cold and major snow events due to sudden stratospheric warming and jet stream displacement in the link provided below.
Also includes an alternative volcanic winter report for the possibility of a major volcanic eruption in Iceland.
Exacta Weather have also accurately forecast sudden stratospheric warming and jet stream displacement events from several months in advance for the exact dates for the coldest December in 100 years (2010) the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S. winter in 100 years (2013/14).