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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2014/15



 


UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 Update

Real time satellite images from over the past few months have clearly indicated a growing and colossal area of much colder than average surface temperatures in the middle of the Gulf Stream/Atlantic (Please see image below).



This is of quite some significance as the Gulf Stream effectively acts as a heat machine for our shores, in particular, during our winter months. An example of this could be a location such as Newfoundland, who is on a similar latitude to the ourselves, but don't inherit the influence of the Gulf Stream. They, therefore, experience much harsher winters.


Without the influence of this vital heat source, we can expect a horrific winter to develop with frequent blizzards/strong winds and extremely cold conditions across many parts of the country later this year. Another typical trait of an abnormal Gulf Stream would also result in an extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When the NAO is in a negative phase, it allows for strong northerly and easterly winds to develop. If we couple this with the expectations for a predominant Arctic Oscillation (AO) from the October pattern index (OPI), and the Siberian snow cover indications, there is every chance that we could be looking at a very similar scenario to the winter of 1962/63.


Why is this happening?


We are currently in a period of prolonged low solar activity, and when the sun is less magnetically active, fewer UV rays are emitted from solar storms, as there are less sunspots. The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.


During the winter period of 1962/63 the famous big freeze took a hold of the country from around Christmas until the spring of the following year because of a similar situation. Several feet of snow fell in parts of southern England; temperatures dropped to below -20C (-4F) in places, and snow remained on the ground for months on end. We could also be looking at a very similar time-frame and scale of events this time around, in particular, as we progress throughout the latter part of December and into January and February.


The following article for the 14th February 2014 also stated:


However, Earth directed solar flares will now become very scarce, and I could hedge a quite safe bet due to the scientific evidence that I have analysed repeatedly, that 70-80% of all winters in the coming decades will now see huge and frequent swirly low pressure systems and strong winds attacking our shores due to Gulf Stream changes. However, this will be under a colder airmass from a negative NAO due to the period of even lower solar activity that we are about to enter.


http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/Winter201314Review.pdf

Please also refer to what our YouTube video from the 2nd October 2014 stated in regards to solar activity and the Gulf Stream for this winter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF4mbX6IOLg


 Our 7 month ahead subscribers report and the following media articles all stated the following in chronological order.


The following media article from the 10th October 2014 stated:


“A number of potentially very cold periods of weather and major snow events are likely to develop throughout this winter across large parts of the country, in particular, throughout the latter part of December and into January.


“February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times. “However, there are some conflicting signals for December at present, which could introduce some milder and rather unsettled interludes of weather at times to begin with.”


http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November


The following media article from the 12th November 2014 also stated:

January and into February are likely to offer some potentially severe cold spells of weather and significant snow for many parts of the country, and this is when winter will begin to take even more of a stronghold this year.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/534304/Winter-weather-forecast-UK-heavy-snow-months-polar-vortex

The following media article from the 26th November 2014 also stated:

“December is now odds-on to be a colder than average month with a number of widespread snow events, however our forecasting parameters have always indicated that there is the potential for some even more severe wintry conditions in the run-up to and after the new year.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/540052/UK-weather-December-forecast-heavy-snow-winter-freeze

The following media article from the 27th November 2014 also stated:

“It is likely to turn very cold at times with the risk of some widespread snow events throughout December, and a notable period of exceptional cold and significant snow should be taken seriously throughout the latter part of December and into January.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/540842/Weather-forecast-winter-bitter-freeze-UK


The following two most recent articles for the UK and Ireland (Daily Mirror) then emphasised on this further in the links below:

One weather expert has warned Britain will be hit by an Arctic blast which is set to arrive over the New Year and hang around for at least a month.


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-country-set-worst-4797980


http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-big-freeze-set-4800490




We would like to thank the Express/Mirror for the coverage of our forecast which we provided voluntarily for public consumption/awareness.


Further and more detailed information will/has been released on the Gulf Stream/AO/NAO to subscribers in our weekly/month ahead updates


UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 14th December 2014 - JAMES MADDEN




 


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NEW** UK & Ireland Significant Snow Risk Dates + Temperature Forecast (2 pages - Dec to Feb) £4.99

The following outlooks are based on our final and updated winter forecast information, along with temperature deviations and the expected number of significant snow days including potential dates for December to February.


NEW** White Christmas Betting Report 2014 £4.99

The White Christmas betting report offers information on a number of bets that are available as of now with various bookmakers in the high street/online.


UK & Ireland Full 2014/15 Winter Report Dec-Feb Inc Iceland Volcano S02 Report (9 pages) £4.99


*NEW* UK & Ireland January Report Inc Maps/Regions (4 pages) £9.99


UK & Ireland Spring 2015 Report (Uploaded November) £9.99


UK & Ireland Preliminary Summer 2015 Report (Uploaded November) £9.99


USA 2014/15 Winter Report (2 pages) $19.99


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