Exacta Weather
Your Subtitle text
UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Summer 2014



 




  The following summer offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited time period - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead/seasonal forecasts for the subscription duration including Autumn & Winter 2014/15 (normally priced at £10 each)


http://www.exactaweather.com/HOT__Summer_Sale.html

1 Year Full Subscription For £12.99* - Normally £74.99
3 Year Full Subscription For £24.99* - Normally £174.99
5 Year Full Subscription For £44.99* - Normally £249.99

Current subscribers can also extend their memberships with the above offers.

(The 5 year offer also includes FREE essentials of climate change book HERE)
.............................................................................................................................

Will the UK & Ireland see a winter like 2009 & 2010 or are we likely to experience another mild & stormy winter?

UK & Ireland Winter Forecast 2014/15

2 x Reports now available including major snow risk dates for the UK & Ireland

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html

The UK Met Office forecast mild winters for what was the coldest winter in 31 years during 2009 + the coldest December in 100 years in 2010 (when our forecasts suggested otherwise)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6246570/Britain-will-have-mild-winter-if-you-believe-the-Met-Office.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html


also includes December, January & February 6 and 4 week ahead forecasts for the UK & Ireland


The Summer Is Not Over & Warm/Hot Weather Will Break Through For The UK & Ireland This Month

High pressure will start to become a more prominent feature from the south of the country as we progress throughout this weekend and into next week. This will bring a rise in temperatures and more settled weather in comparison to the last few days for many, in particular, in some southern, central and western parts of the country. However, some parts of the north and the far north in particular are likely to see some periods of mixed and changeable weather developing at times.

As we enter the final part of the month (from in or around the 20th onwards) it is likely to become exceptionally warmer and much more settled as we see a return to summer for many parts of the country. High pressure will build northwards across many parts of the country within this period and bring a significant rise in temperatures throughout the latter part of August and into early September. Parts to the south of the country are likely to become exceptionally hot and temperatures could climb to well in excess of 30C in these parts, whilst many other parts of the country are also likely to bask in well above average temperatures and some glorious periods of late summer sunshine.

Unfortunately, the low that formed in relation to the remnants of Hurricane Bertha (not Bertha herself) has proved to be quite persistent and initially offset the timing of the projected warm/hot spell of weather, this has also resulted in some much cooler and more unsettled weather instead. However, things will gradually improve from the south as we progress throughout this week and into the final part of August and our forecast will be back on track. The British summer is far from over in terms of some widespread warm to hot spells of weather that is still to come within this period.

The UK & Ireland month ahead forecast to subscribers for the period of the 21st - 31st August also stated (issued in July):




UPDATE ADDED: Thursday 14th August 2014 (11:48) - James Madden


Bertha Update + High Pressure Build Later?

Bertha has proved to be of no 'major' significance for many or nowhere as near as bad as earlier indications from elsewhere, with most parts experiencing some moderate winds to moderate to heavy showers at worst. 
Some parts of the south/London experienced a minimal impact from Bertha and they also experienced some clear blue skies and periods of warm sunshine throughout Sunday, and the worst of the conditions missed us altogether and hit other parts of Europe instead - as suggested within our earlier indications (despite alternative indications from elsewhere).



 However, there has been the odd exception in some 'limited' locations for some flooding or 'remote' areas for stronger winds (not widespread), for which others/media will obviously cherry pick to justify their earlier indications, or for certain individuals who will try and prove our forecast as incorrect.  None of the news channels are reporting on this event within their main bulletins as of Monday Morning or on any losses of life, which would have been the case if this had developed as others expected it to.

Some flooding
 can be expected in limited places from moderate to heavy rain at any time with the warm/dry conditions that we have experienced throughout this summer so far, and due to poor absorption ability on dry ground.

Some of these conditions were also
 due to how they have interacted with secondary weather features and other areas of low pressure (not Bertha) and this was something that was also not forecast by the BBC or Met Office, as the worst of the conditions never hit us and went into other parts of Western Europe - as suggested.

A savvy Facebook follower also posted the following post in recognition of the above too:


Our forecast update on Wednesday 6th August 2014 at 07:28am also suggested the following, despite suggestions from elsewhere:

The most likely outcome for Hurricane Bertha in terms of our forecasting parameters suggests that it will become a rapidly dissipating feature. It will also decrease in its projected intensity over the coming days from other forecasters and in terms of it hitting the UK as a 'powerful storm', as will the details and exact track for it to hit the UK, with most parts of the country supposedly seeing heavy rain, strong winds and massive waves.

Sunday could actually bring some rather warm and settled weather in places instead, in particular, across the 'southern half' of the country. High pressure and the positioning of the Jet-Stream will also hinder any 'major effects' and 'serious implications' that Hurricane Bertha could have impacted on the UK within this period, and in terms of a 'very powerful storm'.


UPDATE REVISED: Monday 11th August 2014 (09:17am) - James Madden

Ex-Hurricane Bertha Update + What Next? (Issued to subscribers from 11:30am Friday 8th August)

It is now starting to look increasingly likely that ex-hurricane Bertha will either A. not hit the UK or B. prove to be of little or no 'major' significance - as suggested in our only update below.

It is also important to remember that this is an ex-hurricane that is now a routine and less intense low pressure system. To the more relaxed observers of the weather, the 'worst-case scenario' will see some moderate to heavy showers and some breezy/moderate winds developing in places, and then it will be gone.

This will come after all the media hype and suggestions from other forecasters for large waves at sea, very strong winds and heavy rain across many parts of the country. The Met Office may also have yellow weather warnings (be aware) in place for Sunday, but these are only for rain and not the orange (be prepared) or red (take action) warnings, which would be somewhat more appropriate for what has been suggested from elsewhere throughout this week.

It is also important to consider that all other forecasters had been indicating how much of a very difficult situation this was to predict throughout much of the week. It would have been very easy for Exacta Weather to play it on the side of caution and mimic suggestions from all other forecasters, whilst constantly changing our mind on a daily basis and in line with every weather model update that they choose to rely on.

The Met Office have also continued to change their mind on a daily basis and termed this as particularly volatile situation on Thursday in the link below (24 hours after our one update on the situation).


Playing the situation down was even more risky when others were forecasting differently, and this could have turned out to be a major event that may have put many lives at risk, especially if we consider the forecasts and warnings that were put out from elsewhere throughout the week.

However, this is exactly what we did within our one and only update, which indicated an over-hyped situation on the basis of early and conflicting model suggestions that do not consider other factors within their forecasts, such as those of Exacta Weather.

The initial details for this storm and for this exact period in August were also suggested within our 5 & 11 month ahead summer forecasts to subscribers (please read your PDF forecasts). The forecasts also stated that this would be "a storm that we could normally expect to experience in late autumn, rather than late summer". However, our analysis in the UK and Ireland month ahead forecast from mid-July, also correctly stated that confidence was variable in terms of the track and overall intensity of the remnants of Hurricane Bertha hitting the UK, and was appropriately adjusted within the final August PDF forecast issued to subscribers on the 30th July and in terms of what was likely to happen within the forecasting period of the 11th - 20th August.

Now we need to observe for a rebuild of high pressure from the south as we head into next week for a return to warm/hot conditions (also as suggested in all our forecasts), and something that other forecasters and their models are still failing to recognise as of yet...

However, every day in August has so far seen temperatures reaching 25C or more in parts of the UK (still very warm as suggested), and temperatures also exceeded 27C in parts of the south throughout Thursday. The rainfall amounts or periods of rain have also been much less than indicated in places by the BBC weather website throughout this week (as many of you will be able to verify).

UPDATE ISSUED TO SUBSCRIBERS: Friday 8th August 2014 (11:30am) - James Madden



We currently have a limited time offer on our forecast subscriptions from £12.99 for 1 year (normally £74.99) which includes access to all our seasonal and month ahead forecasts for the duration of your membership (current members can also extend with this offer, if they so wish)


 


Hurricane Bertha Update + Arrival Of Heat/Hot Weather

There has been a lot of claims from other forecasters throughout this week and people who view their forecasts in relation to a very powerful storm (Hurricane Bertha) hitting the UK on Sunday, with assertive statements being made about massive waves, heavy rain and very strong winds likely to affect most parts of the country.

Unfortunately, a clearer picture will not be established on the outcome of this scenario for those who tend to rely heavily upon ever-changing computer models within this developing scenario. However, Exacta Weather has distanced ourselves from these claims from other forecasters, and we have also not made any suggestions in regards to Hurricane Bertha as of yet.

However, these claims have been made and forecast on the basis of very early model indications from others, that are always likely to significantly change as the week progresses. A scenario like this is always generally over-hyped within early model readings and other important factors are not taken into consideration. However, this is likely to be reflected upon in future forecast updates from other forecasters over the coming days, and as their models begin to adjust to the more likely outcome.

The most likely outcome for Hurricane Bertha in terms of our forecasting parameters suggests that it will become a rapidly dissipating feature. It will also decrease in its projected intensity over the coming days from other forecasters and in terms of it hitting the UK as a powerful storm, as will the details and exact track for it to hit the UK, with most parts of the country supposedly seeing heavy rain, strong winds and massive waves.

Sunday could actually bring some rather warm and settled weather in places instead, in particular, across the southern half of the country. High pressure and the positioning of the Jet-Stream will also hinder any major effects and serious implications that Hurricane Bertha could have impacted on the UK within this period, and in terms of a very powerful storm.

However, other forecasters and their model indications will not really pick up on any major changes to a warmer/hotter scenario for the UK & Ireland as we progress throughout this week and into next week (starting the 11th August), until a clearer picture is established within the Hurricane Bertha scenario over the coming days. To be a little more concise... A scenario that is being projected as a powerful storm is likely to significantly change within other forecasters models who don't consider other factors over the coming days. This also prevents their models from projecting what is likely to happen next with any given accuracy, hence the reason why they are not forecasting what is outlined in the following updates and Mirror/Express articles from Exacta Weather below.




UPDATE ADDED: Wednesday 6th August 2014 (07:28) - James Madden

 




Summer Forecast Review 2014 - To Date

The initial 2014 Summer forecast and the following Daily Express article from 7th April 2014 stated the following in reference to this summer (over 3 months earlier)

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/469046/UK-weather-latest-Britain-set-for-THREEMONTHS-
of-sun-in-mega-heatwave


James Madden said: “Some periods of warm and settled weather can be expected throughout
this summer – in particular in the latter part of July and into the first half of August when
many parts of the country could see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 20s 'AT TIMES'.


“Some warmer incursions of weather are also plausible from the mid-month points in both

June and July, in particular, in the southern half of the country.


Conclusion

A generally settled theme and a prominent and widespread warm/hot spell with
temperatures generally ranging in the mid to high 20s developed across large parts of the country throughout the latter part of July + it remained warm into the first part of August with temperatures reaching 25C in parts of the UK every day up to the 8th.


A warmer incursion of weather was also noted in mid-June when temperatures reached 26.8C

in parts of the south on the 13th and 27C later in parts of both Scotland and Ireland on the
18th. A further incursion of warmer weather was also noted in mid-July when temperatures
reached 32C in parts of the south on the 18th.


In essence, the timing and overall scale within our original summer report and the information
provided to the Daily Express has fared pretty well to date. In exception for either side of
these warm spells not being as cool as initially expected, although they was cooler than the
suggested warmer incursions, in exception for the start of July. However, some fairly unsettled and wet 
weather also developed at times within these given periods as indicated.

...............................................................................................................................................................

Solar Activity Update - Impact On Upcoming Autumn/Winter? + Weekly Update

Solar activity has currently took a nose-dive to very low levels and this is likely to have a significant bearing on our autumn and winter weather patterns later this year/early next year. At present there are only a number of tiny sunspots on the visible solar disc and we recently experienced our first spotless day in a number of years, something that is likely to become prominent throughout the coming years and decades due to a less magnetically active sun.



IMAGE COURTESY OF SOHO/NASA 21st July (2014)

We have already seen the weakest solar max in at least a century, something that was indicated as a possibility for solar cycle 24 many years earlier via Exacta Weather/our YouTube channel here. These early and recent indications do not bode well and in consideration of how far we are away from the next solar minimum, and the likely impact that this will have on the majority of our future summer and in particular, winter weather patterns.



EXAMPLE OF HOW THE SOLAR DISC SHOULD LOOK DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM AND SOLAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS (ABOVE)

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Autumn 2014 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Weather models don't consider solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns between now and then, and this could well be something that they really won't pick up on until much further down the line.

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line.

The UK, Ireland and U.S. Autumn/Fall & Winter forecasts for 2014/15 are available to view in the links below:



This type of analysis has also allowed previous long range forecasts published via Exacta Weather to identify the coldest December in 100 years (2010), the wettest summer in 100 years (2012), the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S winter in 100 years (2013/14).

The coldest December in 100 years (2010)

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.”(Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).

The wettest summer in 100 years (2012) - Issued in early summer 2012

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of the summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/326685/Summer-starts-in-September

The coldest March in 130 years + one of the snowiest ever (2013) + Copy of Spring forecast 2013 issued to subscribers from 5 months ahead

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said more wintry showers in March could make it the “snowiest on record”. He said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time. “There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”


The coldest USA winter in 100 years (2013/14) + Copy of U.S. Winter forecast 2013/14 issued to subscribers from 9 months ahead


(All of these weather 100 year weather events hold major significance for our future climate and weather patterns)

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 21st July 2014 (17:46) - James Madden





  The following summer offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited time period - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead/seasonal forecasts for the subscription duration including Autumn & Winter 2014/15 (normally priced at £10 each)


http://www.exactaweather.com/HOT__Summer_Sale.html

1 Year Full Subscription For £12.99* - Normally £74.99
3 Year Full Subscription For £24.99* - Normally £174.99
5 Year Full Subscription For £44.99* - Normally £249.99

Current subscribers can also extend their memberships with the above offers.

(The 5 year offer also includes FREE essentials of climate change book HERE)