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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Summer 2014



 


ONLY 1 DAY LEFT!



  The following summer offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited time period - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead/seasonal forecasts for the subscription duration including Autumn & Winter 2014/15 (normally priced at £10 each)


http://www.exactaweather.com/HOT__Summer_Sale.html

1 Year Full Subscription For £12.99* - Normally £74.99
3 Year Full Subscription For £24.99* - Normally £174.99
5 Year Full Subscription For £44.99* - Normally £249.99

Current subscribers can also extend their memberships with the above offers.

(The 5 year offer also includes FREE essentials of climate change book HERE)
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UK & Ireland Autumn & Winter Forecasts 2014/15

2 x Reports now available including major snow risk dates for the UK & Ireland in the link below

+ An alternative Exacta Weather Winter Report 2014/15 – Possible volcanic eruption Iceland

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Winter_Forecast_14_15.html


THE UK & IRELAND SEPTEMBER FORECAST IS ALSO AVAILABLE TO VIEW IN THE LINK BELOW - INCLUDES DETAILS OF A MAJOR WEATHER EVENT

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Ire_Month_Ahead.html


UK & Ireland Final Summer Forecast Review 2014

The Met Office are now confirming a more near average summer with temperatures and rainfall close to normal levels for the season (as suggested in our long range 2014 summer forecast issued in early April to subscribers + below media links from the Daily Mirror x 2)

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/cool-wet-august-ends-fairly-average-summer/

The Met Office also state that rainfall during the last few days of August will mean the summer will be slightly wetter than average (our forecast always stated that August would be wetter than average, with June and July likely to be more near to above average).

The following Daily Mirror articles from the 5th and 7th May also stated the following:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-britain-heading-first-3499753 (5th May)

James Madden of Exacta Weather said: "Overall, the long-range summer forecast looks mixed. It's not going to be a wash-out but it wont be as good as last year."

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irelands-summer-weather-end-abruptly-3509824 (7th May)

But, Mr Madden, whose team predicted last year’s record-breaking summer, said there was no change to the forecast he announced last month.

He added: “It will be a more near-average summer in terms of overall temperatures and overall rainfall amounts.”

The Met Office have also confirmed no major heat-waves for June and July in the link below, despite earlier indications for one of the hottest summers ever from top climate scientists and themselves.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2014/summer

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/weather-summer-2014-to-be-hottest-on-record-9122575.html

http://home.bt.com/news/uknews/britain-set-for-hot-summer-says-met-office-11363910123948

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5679242/Met-Office-too-embarrassed-to-tell-us-its-expecting-sizzling-hot-summer.html

Our long range summer forecast also stated the following in reference to El Nino predictions and the hottest summer ever:

There has also recently been reports from scientific experts in reference to the hottest summer ever occurring during 2014 on the basis of El Nino weather patterns. Unfortunately, these predictions do not consider how solar activity can influence our weather patterns and other major factors such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in relation to the frequency and strength of El Nino and La Nina episodes. The PDO identifies warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean (largest ocean in the world) on a monthly basis, with each cool or warm phase generally lasting for around 20-30 years in duration. We are currently in a 'COLD' phase of the PDO, of which La Nina episodes (cooling) are more prevalent and stronger, whereas El Nino (warming) are less infrequent and weaker overall (current indications therefore over-hype the El Nino conditions in current model suggestions). However, El Nino (warming) episodes will still occur, but they will be less infrequent and much weaker in their overall and predicted duration.

Our long range summer forecast to subscribers also identified exactly when the warm to hot spells of weather would occur + in an even earlier article in the Daily Express from the 7th April (before the above Daily Mirror articles):

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/469046/UK-weather-latest-Britain-set-for-THREEMONTHS-
of-sun-in-mega-heatwave


James Madden said: “Some periods of warm and settled weather can be expected throughout this summer – in particular in the latter part of July and into the first half of August when many parts of the country could see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 20s 'AT TIMES'.

“Some warmer incursions of weather are also plausible from the mid-month points in both June and July, in particular, in the southern half of the country.

Conclusion

A generally settled theme and a prominent and widespread warm/hot spell with temperatures generally ranging in the mid to high 20s developed across large parts of the country throughout the latter part of July + it remained warm into the first part of August with temperatures reaching 25C in parts of the UK every day up to the 8th.

A warmer incursion of weather was also noted in mid-June when temperatures reached 26.8C in parts of the south on the 13th and 27C later in parts of both Scotland and Ireland on the 18th. A further incursion of warmer weather was also noted in mid-July when temperatures reached 32C in parts of the south on the 18th.



 


Warm Weather Arrives On Cue

High pressure will become a dominant feature across many parts of the UK and Ireland throughout next week as winds prevail from a southerly course towards our shores. This will bring a significant rise in temperatures and some decent periods of warm sunshine with clear blue skies for many. By the middle part of the week temperatures are likely to reach the mid to high 20s in places at the very least, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country (recorded temperature values on the day are also likely to be much higher than the current BBC website projections and various apps). By the weekend temperatures may begin to edge back a little, but it will still feel warm and temperatures will remain well above the seasonal average for the time of the year as high pressure continues to dominate proceedings.

However, the current Met Office outlook and various other websites suggest a more unsettled theme by next weekend

The current Met Office outlook as of 1206 on Sat 30 Aug 2014 also states:

However, through the weekend, there is likely to be an 'increasing' risk of rain or showers spreading from the west.

However, on the basis of our forecasting parameters this is likely to be a 'reduced' risk of rain or showers spreading from the west, as high pressure is more likely to keep any major rainfall away from our shores throughout next weekend, thus resulting in a relatively dry, warm and more settled picture overall for most parts instead. The 'reduced risk' may see some light natured and non-significant showers pushing into Ireland and possibly to some parts of the far north and west later, but it certainly won't be largely unsettled by any means, as high pressure is likely to quash any major frontal activity from what is currently being shown in various model projections at present. However, some showers may push into some parts of the south and these could bring the odd rumble of thunder with them as they do so, but generally more settled and much warmer than of late throughout next week and into most of next weekend too.

Despite the remnants of Hurricane Bertha disrupting the mid-month warm/hot spell that should have followed on from this, the following Mirror article from the 3rd August also stated:


http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-sizzling-summer-set-3973465


And between the end of August and the start of next month weather experts said the country can look forward to basking in another mini-heatwave to round off a second successive glorious summer season.

James Madden, meteorologist with Exacta Weather, said “In the latter part of August and into the start of September there is also likely to be another warm to very hot period as high pressure builds northwards across many parts of the country. Temperatures could again climb to the high 20s once again.”


The 6 week ahead August/September forecast also stated:


This period could also result in some further surges of warm to hot and more settled/drier weather at times, in particular, towards the latter part of the month and into the start of September.


The original autumn forecast from 5 months ahead also stated the following in italics:


The 2014 Autumn period is likely to experience a more near average to mild/warm theme at times to begin with, in particular, throughout the first half of the season (September to early/mid October). September and into early October may therefore still offer some bursts of temporary warmth and Indian summer type weather as winds prevail from a southerly course to our shores.

The following article within the Irish Examiner from Friday 29th August also stated the following:

James Madden, meteorologist with Exacta Weather, said most parts of Ireland can look forward to basking one final time this year in temperatures as high as the mid-20s.


He said: “Summer is set to return with a vengeance across many parts of Ireland as we progress throughout this weekend and into next week.

“It will gradually become much warmer as high pressure becomes a more dominant feature and builds in many parts of the country. “The widespread warmth is also set to last over a minimum of several days to two weeks at the very least. “There will be a risk of some unsettled weather and showers at times, but many parts of the country can look forward to some well above-average temperatures for the time of year, as the Irish summer makes a late comeback in terms of some widespread warmth and periods of glorious sunshine. “The warmest temperatures are likely to be recorded in some southern and eastern parts of Ireland, but literally anywhere could see temperatures sky-rocketing within this period.”


However, Mr Madden urged people to make the most of the fine spell, as he warned the second half of autumn would see a “major reversal” of the mild conditions, with fog, frost, and wintry showers becoming widespread.


UPDATE ADDED: 31st August 2014 (07:11) - James Madden



 

Solar Activity Update - Impact On Upcoming Autumn/Winter? + Weekly Update

Solar activity has currently took a nose-dive to very low levels and this is likely to have a significant bearing on our autumn and winter weather patterns later this year/early next year. At present there are only a number of tiny sunspots on the visible solar disc and we recently experienced our first spotless day in a number of years, something that is likely to become prominent throughout the coming years and decades due to a less magnetically active sun.



IMAGE COURTESY OF SOHO/NASA 21st July (2014)

We have already seen the weakest solar max in at least a century, something that was indicated as a possibility for solar cycle 24 many years earlier via Exacta Weather/our YouTube channel here. These early and recent indications do not bode well and in consideration of how far we are away from the next solar minimum, and the likely impact that this will have on the majority of our future summer and in particular, winter weather patterns.



EXAMPLE OF HOW THE SOLAR DISC SHOULD LOOK DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM AND SOLAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS (ABOVE)

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Autumn 2014 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Weather models don't consider solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns between now and then, and this could well be something that they really won't pick up on until much further down the line.

A snippet from the UK & Ireland Winter 2014/15 issued in May to subscribers stated the following:

Current solar activity levels and our detailed analysis for later in the year, confidently suggest a substantially reduced period of activity, due to alterations in the sun's magnetic field. Solar activity and how this intrinsically alters the expected patterns of ocean behaviour and weather patterns is not considered or given the weighting it should have within long term weather models, and this could well be something that they also won't pick up on until much further down the line.

The UK, Ireland and U.S. Autumn/Fall & Winter forecasts for 2014/15 are available to view in the links below:



This type of analysis has also allowed previous long range forecasts published via Exacta Weather to identify the coldest December in 100 years (2010), the wettest summer in 100 years (2012), the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S winter in 100 years (2013/14).

The coldest December in 100 years (2010)

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

James Madden's winter predictions are based on a change in the sun's activity. “Based on my current research, the UK does need to prepare for much colder winters at present and in the near future, especially if nothing changes in regard to current solar activity levels and the shift of the Gulf Stream.”(Aired BBC One 7:30pm - 6th December 2010).

The wettest summer in 100 years (2012) - Issued in early summer 2012

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of the summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/326685/Summer-starts-in-September

The coldest March in 130 years + one of the snowiest ever (2013) + Copy of Spring forecast 2013 issued to subscribers from 5 months ahead

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said more wintry showers in March could make it the “snowiest on record”. He said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time. “There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”


The coldest USA winter in 100 years (2013/14) + Copy of U.S. Winter forecast 2013/14 issued to subscribers from 9 months ahead


(All of these weather 100 year weather events hold major significance for our future climate and weather patterns)

UPDATE ADDED: Monday 21st July 2014 (17:46) - James Madden





  The following summer offers are of extremely good value and can therefore only run for a limited time period - they include access to all UK & Ireland month ahead/seasonal forecasts for the subscription duration including Autumn & Winter 2014/15 (normally priced at £10 each)


http://www.exactaweather.com/HOT__Summer_Sale.html

1 Year Full Subscription For £12.99* - Normally £74.99
3 Year Full Subscription For £24.99* - Normally £174.99
5 Year Full Subscription For £44.99* - Normally £249.99

Current subscribers can also extend their memberships with the above offers.

(The 5 year offer also includes FREE essentials of climate change book HERE)