A Much Anticipated & Significant Pattern Change Ahead! + Snow Update
It has recently turned somewhat colder and more seasonal of late, despite those who want to keep shouting 'mild' from the rooftops and titles of their weather updates. The high upper temperatures that have been projected in various model runs have not been reflected in mild conditions on the actual surface, and colder conditions have been somewhat more prevalent since last week. Sunday evening also experienced some rather cold conditions that brought temperatures down to and below freezing, with some dense fog patches developing in places, despite earlier indications from others for some well above-average temperatures within this period. High upper temperatures in the model runs do not necessarily mean we will experience mild temperatures at the surface, in fact, the opposite can be expected under present conditions with more in the way of developing fog and frosts. Temperatures of late have therefore, not been mild, but more near-average with some chilly nights and dense fog patches thrown in for good measure.
However, we have lacked the wintry weather and some potentially even colder weather to accompany these cooler conditions during the second half of November to date from our six month ahead seasonal forecast, due to other parts of Europe being relatively mild for the time of the year. At present, we have a strong blocking pattern and the type of flow we have been experiencing would normally have resulted in some even colder conditions than at present and some potentially widespread snow events at times. However, the strong blocking pattern has also held back a 'major' Atlantic onslaught and westerly based flow that was indicated by many other forecasters for this period and into the meteorological winter within their long-range projections.
Our update from last week stated that there would be some major changes within the various computer models and their forecasts, and this is exactly what occurred.
A large number of the main computer models are now consistently incorporating high pressure into the Arctic regions, and this will eventually divert the jet stream southwards across the UK and Ireland.
The following Daily Express article from almost two weeks earlier also stated the following:
Mr Madden said: “The important pieces are now becoming grouped together to form blocking episodes throughout the SECOND HALF of NOVEMBER and the upcoming WINTER PERIOD. “This is reflected upon with the obliterated Polar Vortex and the downward trend of the 'excessively abnormal' Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, due to recent stratospheric warming and higher than normal pressure across the Arctic region.
This will not only result in some even colder weather throughout the final days of November and into December, but it will also significantly increase the risk of some widespread snow events as we progress throughout this period (even to parts of the south, which is rare this early within the season/December). However, the main computer models will have to get the 'slightly' unsettled weather for some parts in the coming days out of their system, before they will recognise this significant pattern change in time for the start of the proper meteorological winter. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) will also see some imminent changes in the next several days, which will then be reflected in the various model runs too.
The following Daily Star article from Friday 21st November also stated in reference to this:
Exacta Weather's James Madden added: "A much anticipated colder and more wintry spell of weather is likely as we progress throughout November and into December."
An additional Daily Express article also stated the following in reference to this:
James Madden, who warned of the risk of a particularly severe winter in September (earlier to subscribers), today reiterated the message to prepare for a major big freeze. Mr Madden said: “A much anticipated colder and more wintry spell of weather is likely as we progress throughout the latter part of NOVEMBER and into DECEMBER.
“Even though the computer models are sheepish on showing this as a certainty right now, there has been enough signals to identify a high possibility of a blocking pattern developing within this period. “This will bring the increased risk of a significantly colder spell of weather, and the first widespread snow event of the season within the above period".
Taking all factors into consideration, and what we have seen within the main models of late, even colder weather and widespread snow is on the way during the coming weeks. The snow a little later than originally anticipated within our initial autumn forecast, but nevertheless, it will certainly not be the wet, mild and windy picture that has been painted from elsewhere, and within a much shorter time frame than our original six month ahead suggestions.
A repeat of last winter is therefore, OFF the cards, as we are in a very different position for what is likely to be a colder and snowier than average winter.
Our detailed winter forecast also expects these conditions to become potentially more severe at times later in the winter period (as our forecast has always stated + nothing about USA snow hitting us). Nearly every other forecaster followed the lead of the Met Office + the leading seasonal models for a mild, wet and windy theme/repeat of last year. However, Exacta Weather stood firm and said that this would not be the case. The fact other forecasters are starting to suggest that these changes could occur, is a clear sign they are now also starting to recognise what is on the horizon, despite their earlier indications for a repeat of last year.
For more detailed information, you can also access the full UK & Ireland winter reports (now 50% off), the significant snow-risk dates + temperature forecast (very high confidence rating for December snow dates), the White Christmas betting report, and the full UK & Ireland December report (full December report will be uploaded to the member's area shortly).
UPDATE ADDED: Monday 24th November 2014 (18:26) - James Madden
An Unsettled Westerly Flow - Really? + Winter Update
Last week, the Met Office and many other forecasters suggested that we would be in an unsettled westerly flow for this week (for those who remember reading their forecasts). However, Exacta Weather suggested that this pattern would not be maintained and that an easterly flow would be more likely to develop within this period across the UK (in various Facebook postings and in our reports to subscribers). We are now in an easterly flow for this week, and the Met Office give this their lowest confidence rating of occurrence at just 10% last week.
It says a lot for their wet and windy winter forecast for the next three months.
It will now begin to turn progressively cooler throughout the remainder of November with the gradual increase of fog and frosts + with the ever increasing risk for a widespread snow event during the final third of November and into the early part of December (don't worry the models will catch up and expect some big forecast changes from others for the remainder of this period).
The models will flip and flop from bringing in blocking/colder weather to being sheepish about it, before agreeing on a much colder picture 'in the second half of November'. Most of the time they don't even recognise it properly until the last minute, as with November/December 2010, and March 2013 all forecast from several months in advance via Exacta Weather @ http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html
Exacta Weather analyses patterns and incorporates other factors/calculations from several months ahead, and then we have to wait for the models to agree; we are not psychic and can't go right exactly the 15th November will bring these changes, but we can, for example, give a good ballpark figure (this is the weather, and we also need to allow for some deviations in exact timing - although sometimes the dates can be exact, and these are reflected upon in confidence ratings to Exacta Weather users).
It is also very important to remember that large emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) have been emitted in Iceland this year - which are similar to those of some very large-scale eruptions (which have been known to alter our climate/winter patterns in the past + something we covered extensively earlier in the year).
Others will say/wrongly assume that we did not experience an explosive eruption that entered the stratosphere. However, we don't require an explosive eruption as the stratosphere is much lower at higher latitudes such as Iceland, and in comparison to other parts of the world. Combine this with the other factors we have covered, and we have even more weighting towards a cold and snowy winter for the UK & Ireland).
A lot of people seem to be forgetting this or disregarding it altogether, and the models will certainly not have incorporated it within their projections. Do they not remember November and December 2010 after the Eyjafjallajokull eruption?
UPDATE ADDED: Monday 17th November 2014 (11:06am) - James Madden
An 'Excessively Abnormal' Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) & Negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - An Indicative Sign Of Big Things Coming To The UK & Ireland? Cold/Snow/Blocking
The exact signals that we need to be seeing for some even colder weather and widespread snow events throughout the second half of November, and into early/mid December are now starting to fall in place - with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) both doing exactly what they should be at this stage and in terms of our 5-6 month ahead calculations/forecasts.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are closely related and affect temperature patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Factors such as the Siberian snow cover, and sudden stratospheric warming relate to these negative trends.
When the AO is in its negative phase (as above), it allows for an easier intrusion of cold Arctic air to lower latitudes. When the closely related NAO is in a negative phase (as above), it allows for cold easterly winds and cold winters in Europe, with a blocking situation that our forecasting parameters favour over Western Europe.
The impressive Siberian snow cover for this year also offers a high correlation for a negative AO throughout much of the upcoming winter and into next spring. We can therefore expect a significant amount of colder intrusions and prolonged diversions of the jet stream/blocking within this period.
If we look at the latest AO readings, it is really starting to trend towards an 'excessively abnormal' negative value from around the middle of November, and this will also be in response to the recent stratospheric warming over Siberia. The excessively abnormal value from the AO index is also important, as it indicates that higher than normal pressure is present over the Polar region and to what extent of cold we are looking at throughout this winter, and in terms of a big event like December 2010 or March 2013 (which were both forecast from several months in advance for the specific dates within our previous long range forecasts). When the AO/NAO turns negative like this, it becomes a good time to prepare for a number of Arctic intrusions and the potential for some widespread snow events (even to lower levels) across the UK and Ireland throughout the second half of November and into December.
Now this is something that the models have only just started to pick up on in the last 24-48 hours (the reason why there has been some opposition from other forecasters with our November/winter forecast). So be prepared for some backtracking from other forecasters who said this wouldn't happen. Unfortunately, when you have no other methodology or little understanding of forecasting the weather other than model watching, there is always the risk that it could come back and bite you at a later date.
So be prepared for falsified claims that we have said the coldest winter in 100 years is on the way or -27C in weeks as they backtrack - as subscribers know this has not been said in any of our reports.
As I also stated in one of the recent updates below, they do this out of fear and their own insecurity/inability to forecast long range weather events to their clients. They also choose to pass judgement on certain variables such as the headline alone (also very contradictory), without looking deeper into the content of what has actually been said within articles in "quotation marks" (the same and simplistic logic that they apply to their weather forecasting).
I even come across an article the other day from a competitor in Ireland that went as far as saying that we had said the coldest winter in 150 years. This is nothing but misleading drivel to make themselves feel or appear superior, and it is quite misleading information for the people who follow them too.
Another very recent example of our differing methodology to others + a colder than average November?
There are some indications that Bonfire Night could turn out to be the coldest of this century @ http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-bonfire-night-set-4564096
Our UK & Ireland month ahead forecasts to subscribers from 10 days earlier also stated (when many models/other forecasters were indicating a mild and unsettled Bonfire Night):
This period will also begin to feel markedly cooler to what we have experienced throughout autumn to date. As we progress towards the middle part of this forecasting period (in or around bonfire night), there is the potential for a much colder flow of air to push in across the country and temperatures are likely to feature at a progressive near to below average within this period.
Temperatures are now also likely to fluctuate at near or below-average after Bonfire Night (not above-average or mild for the time of the year). If we then consider how things are likely to develop for the second half of November, it is now becoming very realistic that November will come in as a colder than the average month overall. Exacta Weather were the only ones that forecast this within our month ahead forecast to subscribers, and in advance of standard meteorology, as we don't rely on what computer models are indicating. However, every other forecaster who relies heavily upon computer models and have similar methodology to each other, indicated above-average temps for November as a whole, including the UK Met Office. In addition to this, our October month ahead forecast that was issued in advance of standard meteorology also opted for temperatures to be above-average for the month, but if you don't subscribe to our forecasts or listen to others with hidden agendas, then you won't know this.
Based on our differing methodology that has caused some variance among other forecasters/model watchers - the following information from our 5-6 month ahead forecast was provided voluntarily to various media for public consumption in relation to November/this winter in "quotation marks" only:
“Over the coming weeks and into NOVEMBER, it is likely to turn PROGRESSIVELY COLDER, even very cold at times, in particular, in parts of the north as northern BLOCKING becomes a somewhat more prominent feature. “This is likely to bring some significant snow across HIGHER GROUND within this period.
“A number of potentially very cold periods of weather and major snow events are likely to develop throughout this winter across large parts of the country, in particular, throughout the latter part of December and into January.
“The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/10, the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/11 which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.
“February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times."
(Published 10th October - when many said it would be mild until after Christmas).
Mr Madden warned to brace for a “shock to the system” with a “significant” snow event possible in weeks.
He said: “As we progress throughout NOVEMBER, it will begin to turn gradually cooler, in particular, WITHIN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH as BLOCKING becomes a more prominent feature and the jet stream diverts further south.
“This will be due to expanding cold from the Arctic region, and this will also allow for the development of some much colder intrusions of air and snow for the UK.
“Some of the snow events are likely to be quite significant with blizzards across HIGHER GROUND, and a number of potentially notable snow events are also possible across some lower levels within this PERIOD (NOVEMBER AS A WHOLE), in particular, in some exposed coastal areas to the north and west of the country.
“We are also likely to see the development of some widespread frosts and rather extensive fog patches across the country within this period, and this will come as quite a shock to what we have experienced throughout this autumn to date.
“However, some spikes of milder conditions may also develop within this period, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country, and these will be accompanied by some rather windy and quite stormy conditions at times.”
(Published 26th October - when many were forecasting a mild start to November/November as a whole).
He said: “As we progress throughout November, it is going to become gradually colder across many parts of Ireland, in particular from around the MID-MONTH POINT when it is likely to become exceptionally cold at times. “This early start to what is likely to be a harsh winter is also likely to be accompanied by a number of potentially widespread snow events within this period and into the start of December. He continued: “The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/2010, which was the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/2011, which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.
“However, the alternative and slightly more unfavourable scenario could see a winter period on a similar par to 2012/2013 developing, which would still support a colder and snowier than average winter throughout 2014/2015. “If any month could prove to be very severe or potentially record-breaking in terms of the cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop, then January looks like being the main contributor for this on current indications.” He added: “February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times."
(Published 29th October - when many were still forecasting a mild start to November/November as a whole).
Netweather in particular, has had quite a lot to say about our winter forecast. However, they are now also forecasting a cold and snowy January due to a sudden stratospheric warming event within their preliminary winter forecast. It would also appear that they are quite uncertain about what is going to happen in the second half of November and into December.
Our forecast that was issued six months ahead of their forecast, and in every media article that we have appeared within over the last few months stated: January and into February could be particularly cold and snowy or potentially record-breaking due to an SSW event occurring.
The following media article from over 20 days in advance of the Netweather preliminary winter forecast release also stated:
“If any month could prove to be very severe or potentially record-breaking in terms of the cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop, then January looks like being the main contributor for this on current indications."
UPDATE ADDED: 5th November 2014 (08:32) - James Madden
UK & Ireland Winter Weather Forecast 2014/15
Our UK & Ireland winter 2014/15 forecast defines a particular period of exceptional cold and major snow events due to sudden stratospheric warming and jet stream displacement in the link provided below.
Also includes an alternative volcanic winter report for the possibility of a major volcanic eruption in Iceland.
Exacta Weather have also accurately forecast sudden stratospheric warming and jet stream displacement events from several months in advance for the exact dates for the coldest December in 100 years (2010) the coldest March in 130 years (2013) and the coldest U.S. winter in 100 years (2013/14).