Autumn 2016 Review + Winter/Cold/Snow Arrives On Cue For The UK & Ireland + Much Worse To Come?
The warm to hot weather pattern from the summer continued through for the first two thirds of autumn, and at this point it is also worth re-confirming that the overall summer pattern in terms of temperature was very WARM this year. The mean Central England Temperature (CET) is the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world, and for each month of summer 2016 (June, July, August) all registered temperatures come close to or above 1C in regards to this, actually making it one of the warmest summer periods in quite some time overall.
June = +1.1C
July = +0.8C
August = +1.2C
However, it was slightly more unsettled than we had forecast and a pinnacle point of our subscribers forecasts clearly highlighted that it wouldn't be entirely settled throughout, and with this we correctly left behind any opportunity for another cool summer weather pattern from several months ahead earlier this year. Many southern parts of the country also experienced some consistently settled weather and warm temperatures, whilst parts further north became more unsettled at times.
In addition to this our several month ahead subscribers report for autumn 2016 also outlined that a warm to hot weather pattern would persist throughout SEPTEMBER and into OCTOBER, with a potential final surge of heat as far back as the final third of October and for in or around the Halloween period. It also correctly identified that September in particular, would be a much warmer than average month overall.
The following media articles from ITV and the GUARDIAN also stated the following in reference to this:
Exacta Weather’s James Madden, said hot air lingering over the Continent would move across the country.
He said temperatures would remain higher than normal over the next few weeks, frequently reaching the low to mid 20s C. He also added:
Hot air will continue to drift across our shores to bring several bursts of warm to hot weather for SEPTEMBER and OCTOBER. These bouts of Indian Summer-type weather will also be enough to continue a trend of above-average temperatures in terms of the mean Central England temperature for the next several weeks.
James Madden of forecasting service Exacta Weather says: “Hot air built up on the near continent will continue to drift across our shores to bring bursts of warm to hot weather in among some other weather types into October.
“These bouts of Indian summer-type weather will also be enough to continue the several-month trend of above average temperatures for the next several weeks.”
The following was also posted over 4 weeks in advance via our Facebook page in reference to warm temperature values on Halloween, and the resulting 2016 Halloween period experienced some very warm maximum temperatures of 22C for the time of the year.
To conclude the autumn 2016 period, our several month ahead subscribers report and later media articles also stated that November would be somewhat different and that it was more likely to be a much colder than average month with several wintry blasts in the offing, and with some early snow potential in some parts within the southern half of the country too.
November will now come in at much colder than average and this will be the 8th consecutive month that our seasonal forecasts have correctly identified the correct temperature outcome for each month.
September = +2.4C
October = +0.3C
November = Pending (Should be in or around -1C at the very least)
A number of wintry blasts have also already occurred in parts as far south as southern England/Ireland, and for in and around the exact period/date we highlighted in our several month ahead subscribers seasonal report.
In addition to this and our earlier subscribers forecast - the following Daily Express article from earlier in the year (September) also correctly stated the following in reference to November and our Eurasian snow cover forecast by stating the following:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the first bitter blast will hit the NORTH in as early as NOVEMBER. He said: “Despite the much warmer than average but unsettled summer and the warm start to autumn, people should not be lulled into a false sense of security.
“Throughout this winter we fully expect some quite potent wintry blasts from as early as NOVEMBER for the NORTHERN half of the country, and even the SOUTHERN HALF of the country can expect some prolonged wintry weather at times.
“An early indication of things going to plan should be visible in the well above-normal SNOW COVER in EURASIA this AUTUMN/OCTOBER.
“These factors will also contribute to a blocking pattern that will allow easterly and north easterly winds to dominate with numerous snow events throughout DECEMBER and JANUARY.”
As we had indicated in the above and before any other scientist/weather company - The EURASIAN SNOW COVER was well above-average in October and this strongly favours a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), and this is also likely to influence some upper level warming events within the stratosphere for a specific period throughout the upcoming winter.
In addition to the above a more recent Daily Express article (21st November Online & 22nd Newspaper) also stated the following in reference to others who favoured a more normal/mild winter earlier this year, and in reference to snow from OURSELVES for the late November and early December period:
Experts now agree earlier indications that this winter may be mild were “off base” and are now warning of a cold season ahead.
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said the first real taste of winter could be just a few weeks away. He said: “there is a risk of a snow event during the final part of NOVEMBER and EARLY DECEMBER in some parts to the north of the country to start the meteorological winter. “This will then pave the way for exceptional cold and snowfall in December, particularly in the SECOND HALF of the month.
And not ruling out a White Christmas he added: “Although it is technically still too early to call exactly where snow will fall on Christmas Day, there are some good indicators for a number of widespread snow events IN AND AROUND the festive period.”
Actual newspaper shot provided in the link below:
And 3 days later the Met Office are suddenly forecasting snow for this same period within the following DAILY STAR article below:
The same article also makes reference to our snow events for IN AND AROUND the upcoming FESTIVE PERIOD for it to be counteracted with the following statement from the Met Office
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said just days ago that there would be “exceptional cold and snowfall” over the festive period.
But Met Office forecasters have dashed that hope, saying they predict MILDER conditions.
We are quite unsure as to why the Met Office might have said this, especially with what some of our own forecasts and charts have been consistently forecasting for in and around this period in terms of blocking patterns and widespread snow.
Further details are available within our long range and seasonal forecasts, and additional snow risk dates for December and January along with the December month ahead forecast will also be available within the subscribers and members login areas within the next 24-72 hours.
In addition to this we would also like to leave you with a PDF copy of our preliminary autumn 2016 forecast that we issued to subscribers in July within the provided link below (Max of 5 months ahead by the end of autumn) to highlight our capabilities for correctly identifying weather patterns/events earlier than anywhere else in the world and before FREE release for public consumption within various media.
UPDATE ADDED: Friday 25th November 2016 – James Madden
🎅 CHRISTMAS 2016 offers for just £10 for 12 months or £20 Lifetime subscription - For the first 100 subscribers ONLY inc access to Snow Dates, White Christmas Info, December Reports + More (Donations also welcomed)
Yet Another Mild Winter! - Review 2015/16
For the third consecutive year/winter we have now experienced yet another mild winter!
An easy way out would be for me to say that these things sometimes just cluster together in this fashion, which they do, or that it's just the weather. However, I feel it is important to cover what I feel has happened and where we are heading in the future after a review of our methodology.
The problem over the last few winters has been the lack of any sustained heights to support any periods of prolonged cold and snow. Take last year as an example (2014/15), which was almost a cert for a very cold and snowy one from ALL the early signals. In essence, high pressure in Greenland and the Azores has not been playing ball to give us more favourable winter conditions for prolonged cold and snow. We have also continued to see storm after storm, and so much so, that they are now being named due to their frequency. This is not something we expect everyone to understand or agree with - However, we will see a continuation of these storms for most of our upcoming winter periods, and whether it be mild or cold in terms of temperature (something we have always stated and forecast before they arrived each winter). However, when we do get any prolonged cold weather across our shores, large low pressure systems will spin off the east coast of the United States and head straight towards the UK/Ireland due to long term Gulf Stream changes. This is also where the extra moisture will come from to encase us in ice storms and excessive amounts of snow in future winter periods, and just as they did in December 2010 (Ice Age Circulation Patterns).
The Gulf Stream is not a constant, and when it alters at a state of such magnitude, it holds long term implications on our weather patterns. The exact weather patterns may stutter along the way, but our indications and other ample areas of science favour cooling (Ice Age circulation patterns) and not warming for this developing scenario. This is also initially and intrinsically brought about by low solar activity, and a lack of earth directed solar flares/Gulf Stream changes.
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf is one of the worlds leading climatologists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. Stefan also backs up our long term science on 'Gulf Stream changes' within the article below, and despite some short-range/seasonal inaccuracies from ourselves, the same article also features some largely based Exacta Weather science in relation to these Gulf Stream Changes and in terms of long-range climate forecasting (nothing to do with salinity in our science - more how the Gulf Stream is heated).
Stefan also works from the exact same office that Einstein developed relativity... and he also goes on to state the following about the Gulf Stream HERE:
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, said it has slowed by between 15 and 20 per cent. This has resulted in cooling equivalent to switching off a million power stations with possible catastrophic effects this winter. “There is more than a 99 per cent probability that this slowdown is unique over the period we looked at since 900 AD. “We conclude that the slowdown many have described is in fact already underway and it is outside of any natural variation.”
After further analysis of our short-range and seasonal forecasting for the last 3 winter periods, we must also accept some responsibility for underestimating solar activity levels during this 'transitional' period to a much quieter sun. Some unexpected peaks in solar activity have taken us by surprise in their overall strength, and despite a continuation in the lack of sunspots and their overall size. We do feel that these factors have altered the accuracy of our overall forecasts, but we can assure you that we are now moving away from this stronger part of the solar cycle. We should have also give more weighting to the El Nino conditions, and how they can vary and bring milder winter conditions to our shores.
Despite the milder winter we did have some shots of cold and success with snow dates, in particular, with the snow disaster that struck the United States. We have also had several weeks of cool-cold weather as the 'more dominant' weather pattern. This type of pattern arrived in the second half of February and reduced the mean CET for this particular month by over 3C within this period. This cool to cold weather also continued into the start of the meteorological spring to deliver a cold March, and wintry incursions have also continued well into April. We also expect some interesting developments in May - Although some warm to much warmer weather is also on the way, too.
SO HOW OFTEN CAN WE EXPECT A COLD WINTER THEN? WE'VE JUST HAD 3 CONSECUTIVE MILD ONES!
This is something that we have analysed repeatedly and for all our future winter forecasts we will be giving 2 possible outcomes with a percentage rating for each one to subscribers. This will be easier to manage and also more accurate due to the extra factors that we will be incorporating within the 2 outcomes. However, in the direction that we are heading in terms of solar activity at present, we can expect at least 70%+ of all our future winter periods to be cold/exceptionally cold and snowy (6-7 of the next 10 winter periods will be cold/snowy).
Further details will also be released on this and the new format in June/July within our Preliminary Autumn & Winter 2016/17 forecasts to subscribers.
To conclude; A recent scientific article within the Daily Mirror titled "A mini ice age is on its way and this is what the UK will look like" also heavily features Exacta Weather science and states the following:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, has previously said the UK should brace itself for colder winters from this year onwards.
He said: “This serious climate situation is also something that is unlikely to correct itself overnight as repeated analysis of past cycles and other contributing factors in relation to the current solar output and size/frequency of sunspots reveal to us quite conclusively that we are heading into something like a Maunder Minimum. "A time when the Thames used to freeze over regularly in London - or a fully blown ice age is inevitable in the coming years and decades.” Episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830.
Exacta Weather, AccuWeather and Met Office ICE AGE Related Science Article + CONFIRMATION of our CORRECT science predictions from them since 2010 @
WINTER 2015/16 REVIEW UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 10th April 2016 - James Madden