Turning More Settled & Warmer?
The upcoming week will bring a somewhat unusual divide to begin with as high pressure aims to influence parts of the country from the west, and the influence of cooler and more showery weather will be more to the east of the country. However, as we progress throughout the week and after a number of rather cool and showery days overall, it will then begin to turn more settled and warmer as high pressure becomes the more dominant feature for many. This should see a return to summery weather by next weekend and into the early part of next week for many (8th September). This will also precede an extensive period of more settled weather thanks to more dominant high pressure from the Azores region, and despite some chilly evenings we could actually see daytime temperatures ranging in the low to mid 20s for many parts of England and Wales within this developing period at times. Please note that third party weather models will not recognise these temperature spikes until nearer the time or just before occurrence. So although it may feel rather autumnal for a number of days to start the meteorological autumn proper, it will only be short-lived as more settled and warmer weather makes a return later this week and for much of the following week on current indications.
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THIS UPDATE WAS ADDED EARLIER FOR MEMBERS
UPDATE ADDED: Monday 31st August 2015 - James Madden
Settled & Warm To Hot Start For The Meteorological Autumn?
After a weekend of surging temperatures which brought a maximum of 31C in southern England and some widespread thunderstorm activity, we will see a fairly unsettled spell of weather to start this week with periods of rain and showers for many, along with some rather breezy conditions and no tornadoes as some others were strongly indicating for this period.
We also stated the following on the 11th August in reference to this in a sole Daily Express article when there was no such indications from any models or other forecasters (almost two weeks earlier):
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said a “significant change” could happen as soon as NEXT WEEK ending 23rd August. He said: “We are now likely to see the significant pattern change to much warmer and more settled conditions for many taking place.
“It is now also highly plausible that August temperatures will come in well above average, and temperatures could even approach the mid to high 30s at times, in particular, within the SECOND HALF of the month in parts of the south.
“Even the worst hit areas throughout the poor summer to date in the north and west can also look forward to some decent summery conditions and exceptionally warm conditions at times throughout the REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.”
He said EXTREME HEAT will trigger spectacular THUNDERSTORMS with above-average temperatures likely to last into AUTUMN.
The overall picture will gradually improve again as the week progresses and into the Bank Holiday weekend as high pressure builds in from the south of the country. This is likely to bring potential maximum temperatures in the mid to high 20s at the very least in parts of the south, whilst elsewhere should be relatively dry with some potentially quite warm weather conditions in some late summer/early autumn sunshine. The risk of some occasional showers can't be ruled out entirely, in particular, in some parts of the far north and west, but all in all the Bank Holiday weekend looks like an improving picture overall for many.
This pressure rise from the south of the country is also likely to leave us in largely settled conditions for an extensive period of time on current indications and as we head into the start of the meteorological autumn. A number of additional heat surges will also leave us bathing in decent Indian Summer like conditions and more settled weather as the jet-stream shifts much further north throughout this period.
However, the surge in temperatures may also bring the risk of some thundery rain at times later this week and into the start of Autumn, in particular, in some parts to the south and east of the country.
The following media publication in relation to our long range summer forecast also stated the following from over 90 days ahead + about a pattern change to better weather in the second half of August and September:
Above forecast information was posted to subscribers in December 2014
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Recent image of the Gulf Stream and well below-average sea surface temperatures - how will this impact our winter?
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UPDATE ADDED: Monday 24th August 2015 - James Madden (posted earlier to subscribers)
Are things about to 'finally' settle down for the UK and Ireland or are major storms/tornadoes on the way?
There has been a contrast in differences among forecasters and various model indications of late for much of this week and the latter part of August. At present there has been a battleground scenario between high pressure settling things down and strengthening weather systems pushing in from the Atlantic, which leaves us with nothing entirely settled and complicated or conflicting forecasts in regards to the upcoming weekend and the remainder of the month.
Throughout the upcoming weekend Sunday and into Monday (23rd and 24th) we will see low pressure pushing near to the UK and Ireland and this 'could' bring a more unsettled, wetter and somewhat potentially windier outlook within this period, in particular, in some northern and western areas and for many parts of Ireland. However, it will also feel warm and muggy for many prior to this, in particular, in some southern and eastern parts of the country where temperatures could approach the mid to high 20s in places on Saturday, with low to mid 20s being achieved in some parts further north.
We may also see some thunderstorms being triggered off in some western parts on Saturday and in some southern areas throughout the weekend and into early next week as we retain the muggy and warmer weather despite some potentially unsettled conditions. However, as with the uncertainty of such an event developing, it could very well be that many places escape with sunny spells and just the occasional shower throughout Sunday and into Monday, whilst some parts of the far north and western fringes don't fare as well overall.
This is something that all the computer models will swap and change with until a day or two before and time will tell as to which way it will go...
Our initial forecast for this period 'favoured' the following, which we also posted the following via Facebook on the 17th August in reference to this:
More contrasting forecasts from others, however the main emphasis should be on how warm and settled it is about to become according to our models, with the possibility of some unsettled weather or thunderstorms in some parts of the far north and western fringes in among warm and settled weather for many other parts of the country.
Our earlier forecast indications and the following weather report also stated the following for this period:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “It is likely to become very warm at times this week, in particular, in parts to the south of the country.
However, this does not mean entirely settled conditions throughout due to further rain and developing thunderstorms from various weather systems at times, in particular, in some western areas.”
However, this is only likely to bring an unsettled day or two at worst before we finally see some influential ridging from the Azores. This is likely to bring an even more significant surge in temperatures than of late and much more settled weather for many during the final third of August and into early September as we move away from the current battleground scenario that we are experiencing at present. This is likely to bring about a fine and summery end to the meteorological summer and what should be a decent end to August and a great start to the meteorological autumn.
We also stated the following in reference to this heat and thunderstorms in our earlier forecast indications:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said a “significant change” could happen as soon as next week. He said: “We are now likely to see the significant pattern change to much warmer and more settled conditions for many taking place.
“Even the worst hit areas throughout the poor summer to date in the north and west can also look forward to some decent summery conditions and exceptionally warm conditions at times throughout the remainder of the month.”
He said extreme heat will trigger spectacular thunderstorms with above-average temperatures likely to last into autumn.
UPDATED ADDED: Wednesday 19th August 2015 – James Madden (Posted earlier to subscribers)
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