Hurricane Joaquin + Weather Update (Posted earlier to subscribers)
Our 4 month ahead autumn forecast also stated the following about Hurricane Joaquin for these dates + more details on further hurricane remnants this Autumn:
"A number of hurricane remnants and strong stormy conditions are also likely to develop throughout October. Current indications suggest a number of potential dates +/- 1 to 3 days for the 10th October for some potentially strong stormy features and significant low pressure areas" (posted early June to subscribers).
Weather For The Week Ahead
The recent settled and warmer weather from dominant high pressure in the last several days will now be interrupted during the start to the week ahead (5th October 2015) as low pressure becomes the more dominant feature from the west of the country. This will bring a much more autumnal feel to affairs and rather unsettled and windy conditions for many northern areas, in particular, on Tuesday with some rather heavy showers developing for many - although very mild for the time of the year. A number of torrential thunderstorms and potentially large hail could also develop in places as this more unsettled weather pushes in across many parts of the country within this period, in particular, in some southern parts of the country.
However, a good deal of drier weather with some periods of pleasant sunshine are likely to appear in between showers, and later in the week we could see a return to settled and warmer weather conditions as more of a southerly airflow establishes itself.
A return to warmer and more settled weather conditions could actually be partly responsible from the deterioration of the remnants of ex-Hurricane Joaquin - as this would allow a warmer and more southerly airflow to develop across our shores by next weekend. Another alternative could see more of a rather cool easterly developing and the establishment of some northern blocking by next weekend for the UK, and if the ex-hurricane Joaquin takes a different approach.
In a nutshell, it is a rather close one to call at present with further changes likely to follow in the coming days. However, our recent model indications suggest that it's more favourable for the track of the ex-hurricane to miss the UK or dissipate altogether, and it could actually have more of a direct impact for parts of Ireland if anywhere.
However, this is not set in stone, and there is still room for movement on the track and the reduction in intensity over the coming days. Nevertheless this is a very interesting feature that will impact our weather patterns in the next several days in one way or another. However, our current indications do favour a much weaker and somewhat deteriorated system by the time it even nears our shores, with a more likely impact on our other weather patterns that it will alter atmospherically.
To conclude - Our forecast favours high pressure to become more dominant during the second half of this week - We therefore expect high pressure to build to bring some much drier conditions and further periods of sunshine in among some sporadic shower activity, and temperatures of 20C or above could still be reached in the best of the sunshine in places over the next several days (this is 7-8C above-average for the time of the year). However, a lively easterly wind could affect some areas making it feel somewhat cooler for the time of the year.
ADDED: Tuesday 6th October 2015 - James Madden
Indian Summer To Arrive On Cue + Gulf Stream Autumn/Winter
Much of this week will become dry and settled with a gradual increase in temperatures to deliver an Indian summer for many parts of the country.
Temperatures are likely to touch or exceed 25C in parts of the south towards the end of the week and into next weekend due to more southerly winds (12th September), which is 8C above-average for the time of year. Other parts of the country are also likely to see temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s at the very least, even parts as far north as Scotland could see maximum temperatures in the low 20s.
Unfortunately, some cloud cover could be of issue at times preventing wall to wall sunshine, but it will feel rather warm and pleasant in among the clearer sunnier periods.
However, the more settled conditions will be accompanied by some rather chilly nights to start next week under the clearer skies, and many places will get down to single digits at times during the first half of the week.
Later next weekend and into early next week could bring some sort of breakdown from the west of the country to more unsettled conditions and some developing thunderstorm activity. However, the high pressure that is likely to feature across our shores for the next several days could prevent any unsettled conditions or major fronts pushing in from the Atlantic, and it could very well be that we get an extension of the more settled and warmer weather than some current model indications for another several days before a potential breakdown.
Our 4 month ahead subscribers Autumn forecast also stated the following:
On our present indications the start to the meteorological autumn of 2015 is likely to see some warm temperatures developing for the time of the year within the early stages, in particular, in some parts to the south and east of the country throughout September and into the first half of October. However, the warm periods are also likely to have quite a widespread influence at times.
Some changeable periods of more unsettled weather in terms of heavy rain and strong winds will also develop at times throughout September and October, and this will bring the risk of some potentially thundery downpours when they replace the warmer periods, in particular, in some parts to the north and west of the country.
The following media article from the 31st August also stated in reference to this:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said after the dire start to September, the weather could yet improve. Early signs show the first part of autumn is shaping up to be warm with a late scorcher not out of the question, he added.
He said: "As we progress throughout the week after some rather cool and showery days it will begin to turn more settled and warmer. "This should see a return to summery weather by the weekend and into the early part of next week for many. "So although it may feel rather autumnal to start the meteorological autumn it will only be short-lived."
Important Note On Gulf Stream Autumn/Winter
Towards the end of last year Exacta Weather forewarned of the serious implications that we were facing from colder than average SST in the Atlantic due to a changing Gulf Stream and low solar activity. Even though these changes never impacted our winter as it should have done, there is an important lag effect within this process that was difficult to define at that particular point, especially with it being something that doesn't occur regular. All of our forecasts/statements also warned about the implications this would have on our 'long term' weather patterns if nothing changed and not just last winter alone.
We really would have needed to see some changes throughout this year to escape the inevitable this time around. However, as expected, this is not the sort of process that reverts back on itself quickly once it occurs, especially when we are in such a period of low solar activity. However, there have been no improvements since we first reported on these changes, if anything the overall situation has worsened... This now means that those who like cold and snowy winters will not be disappointed this year, in particular, in the UK, Ireland and the north/east coast of the United States (see recent North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the below image).
The following article from the Express and Nathan Rao from the 1st January superbly covered this topic in depth, and it also correctly forewarned that the upcoming year would be dogged by cold blasts with a cool/unsettled/stormy summer from several months ahead due to theses changes in solar output and the Gulf Stream.
The 1st January article also stated the following in reference to the Gulf Stream, low solar activity and summer 2015:
The entire year is likely to be dogged by cold blasts with a washout summer on the way, experts said. They say a bizarre set of circumstances have come together to drive erratic weather patterns through the year.
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, blames unusually low solar activity for one of the warmest years on record (2014) potentially being followed by something much colder in (2015).
He explained the Gulf Stream acts like a “heat machine” for the UK climate with any cooling down likely to drastically affect the weather.
He said: “Although 2014 has proved to be a warm year with every month except August featuring an above-average Central England Temperature, 2015 will be significantly cooler overall.
“There is also the potential for this to have an impact on a much cooler summer, especially if we combine this with the recent volcanic activity in Iceland which I think will impact our summer.
Mr Madden added: “The amount of solar radiation that we receive have an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland.
An additional media article from the 27th February also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:
James Madden, forecaster with Exacta Weather, said: "Solar activity has recently declined to exceptionally low levels and these solar influences are likely to have an important bearing on the upcoming SUMMER weather.
"A combination of low solar activity and a less magnetically active sun will eventually send the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a more negative phase, which in turn favours prolonged blocking patterns and much colder-than-average weather conditions for the UK and in particular, Ireland.
Madden also said he believes that the decline in solar activity could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year.
He explained: "In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone.
"This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator during these higher periods of activity.
"We are now entering something opposite that changes ocean circulation and weather patterns and Ireland is in the firing line for some of these almost imminent changes that favour more dominant weather extremes and frequent blocking patterns.
An additional media article (above) from the 27th May also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:
Online forecaster Exacta Weather has warned people to prepare for unsettled weather throughout June and July - and said it could turn out to be the worst summer for years.
James Madden from Exacta said: "The June and July period is more likely to be dominated by some rather changeable and unsettled conditions, with nothing spectacular in terms of maximum temperatures.
"There could be a number of potentially warm to hot days at times throughout these two months, but these will be hampered by thunderstorms and potentially heavy downpours that will also bring the risk of flooding.
"This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how it intrinsically alters factors such as the jet stream and storm tracks.”
The Met Office has also admitted it had failed to predict the wash-out endured by Britain over the last few months in the below article.
Yet 3 months earlier they stated the following in one of our articles for a colder than average and unsettled summer:
"However, forecasters for the Met Office and PA MeteoGroup say they are unable to issue forecasts so far in advance."
An additional media article from the 9th April also stated the following in reference to low solar activity and summer 2015:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Our long-range projections suggest a much colder and wetter than average summer throughout the period of June to August of this year based on low solar activity levels.”
UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 6th September 2015 – James Madden
Check out our latest offers on forecast subscriptions and why you should subscribe to our services in the links below: