Early Autumn Storm Arrives On Cue + A Better Weather Pattern Ahead?
Unseasonably stormy weather and strong winds have unfortunately seen seven fatalities over the weekend for the storm that we forewarned of as a 'major event' from our several month ahead and month ahead forecasts.
Did the Met Office send out RELEVANT warnings to help prevent this? NO
Will they be trolled or hated upon? NO
Will they get away with it and will it be covered up AGAIN? YES
Our seasonal forecast from SEVERAL MONTHS ahead and the following HEATWAVE media article from LATE JULY also stated the following in reference to this EXACT period for an early autumn type storm:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “There may also be a higher than normal opportunity for an EARLY AUTUMN TYPE STORM or rather windy period during the FINAL THIRD of AUGUST, and under some less seasonal temperatures than earlier in the month.
“This type of significant low pressure is something we would normally see in LATE AUTUMN and not late summer/early autumn."
After a fairly changeable start to the upcoming week (22nd - 29th August) a significant change in weather patterns will see temperatures hitting or exceeding the 30C mark by Tuesday or Wednesday. At a push we could see 32-33C in the best of the sunshine and it will also feel hot and humid in many other parts of the country throughout these days too. Some briefly unsettled weather and isolated thunderstorms may occur in places at the peak of this heat surge on Wednesday and into Thursday. However, high pressure is more in favour to return by next weekend (28th - 29th) and this will signal a significant pattern change to very settled weather conditions for the next 10-14 days at the very least.
This pattern change will also bring lengthy periods of late summer sunshine within this period and some extremely hot days are also likely to develop at times. This is likely to be the most settled spell of summer weather in terms of overall duration throughout this summer to date, and it will also be the perfect ending for those wanting to do out and about stuff during the last few weeks of the school summer holidays.
In among the hot days will also see varying temperatures from day to day. However, temperatures will remain above the seasonal average and featuring at warm values during any periods of variation. Low to mid 20's can be expected consistently with wall-to-wall sunshine for the period of around a fortnight at the very least for many parts of the country, in particular, in parts of the south but not restricted to these parts.
High pressure will start to make inroads across the UK and Ireland once again by the end of the working week and into the weekend to bring some decent weather and sunny spells for many, and after some potentially thundery downpours in places. Maximum temperatures could approach 28-29C in parts of south-east England with other parts of the country staying warm or at least around average for the time of the year. However, some places may still see some thundery showers popping up here and there, in particular, in parts of southern England.
This will then pave the way for another warm to hot weather pattern to end the meteorological summer and to begin the meteorological autumn (Sep-Nov) throughout much of the following week (29th August - 3rd September). This will bring consistent temperatures in at least the mid 20's in parts of the south and 30C or more isn't out of the question in places as the week progresses. However, various weather fronts may bring the risk of some rain and gloomy type weather conditions at times further north and the risk of some developing thunderstorms for many later in the week too.
Further details will be covered in the subscribers month ahead forecast for further ahead and September - Including access to the readily available Autumn 2016 and Winter 2016/17 forecasts.
Update Added: James Madden - 24/08/2016 (Added earlier to subscribers)
Exacta Weather, AccuWeather and Met Office ICE AGE Related Science Article + CONFIRMATION of our CORRECT science predictions from them since 2010 @
LAST ever Sale - Includes Access To FULL September, Autumn & Winter 2016/17 Weather Forecasts from only £5 (prices WILL return to £199.99 NEXT WEEK) @ http://www.exactaweather.com/subscribe-1.html + PLEASE ALSO CHECK YOUR SPAM/JUNK BOX AT THE TIME OF YOUR PURCHASE (Any donations towards our future work and science are also highly welcomed)
Bursts Of Heat & Late Summer Sunshine + Far North/North & South Divide?
Despite some rather changeable and unsettled conditions at times to start August and the final month of the meteorological summer it will actually begin to turn much warmer and more settled than of late from the south of the country throughout this weekend and into the start of next week. As the upcoming weekend progresses these conditions will gradually spread to some parts of the north to bring another blast of heat and summer-like weather conditions for a number of days, in particular, in the southern half of the country.
However, an area of windy and unsettled weather will pass very close to parts of the far north and this is likely to be accompanied by some rain in parts of the north within this period, although in general it will only be parts of the far north, some western areas and parts of Scotland at more risk from this - with ONLY some EXPOSED coastal areas possibly recording gusts of 60-65 MPH, whilst most other areas bathe in warmer and more settled weather conditions pushing in from the near continent.
Although a 'very slight' change in pattern could have brought about some exceptionally warmer temperatures throughout this weekend, it's now more likely to see temperatures approaching or possibly exceeding 30C in parts of the south within this period, in particular, in terms of the humidity feel. It is also plausible that conventional meteorology and various apps could be underestimating the influence of this high pressure build and this could result in higher temperatures and more of an exertion in summer-like conditions for places that might not be expecting them throughout this weekend.
Our subscribers month ahead forecast also touted a potential heat surge and a blast of summer for a number of days, and for 'in or around' the 4th August. Unfortunately, none of the apps or various website projections for specific locations show any real good weather or prolonged sunshine until just before or on the actual day, and this is a real problem for when people are checking their apps for the days ahead against our own forecast projections.
Despite an interruption to some cooler weather conditions during next week it will still be more settled than of late with some decent sunny spells at times for many, and the fresher spell will also be counteracted by another attack of high pressure that will make way for another rise in temperatures and a return to summer-like conditions for many parts of the country later NEXT WEEK, but on a potentially more prolonged scale than the recent heat blasts.
We also expect some additional heat surges in August in among some 'other weather types' (Please refer to your August subscribers/PDF reports for further enhanced details and exact dates on developing scenarios). Please also don't assume or rise your expectancy levels because we are forecasting a number of heat surges or that our forecast is for hot/summer weather throughout the whole of the month.
In addition to all of the above the following and earlier media articles (Daily Mirror/Daily Express) also stated the following in reference to this at the end of July:
However it is not all bad news with some forecasters predicting another "mega" heatwave before the END of August.
Exacta Weather's James Madden said: "It is very plausible that we could see temperatures climbing to the mid 30s once again, and on NUMEROUS occasions, but in a slightly more prolonged fashion that will be interrupted by periods of COOLER and more UNSETTLED weather, in particular, in parts of the far north."
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “ADDITIONAL temperature surges can also be expected and these could be very similar in nature to the recent heat surge that brought about the hottest temperatures of the year. “It is plausible that we could see temperatures climbing to the mid 30's once again, and on NUMEROUS occasions.
“Although most of the country can look forward to some hot and dry weather Scotland and parts of the north may be caught out by WIND and RAIN. He said: “Unfortunately some parts of the very FAR NORTH may not fare as well for the final part of summer 2016, and they could catch a number of rather unsettled spells. “The dominant high pressure also doesn't reveal the FULL PICTURE for some parts of the very far north over the coming weeks as they will be under the influence or very close to some much cooler air for the time of the year.
“So all in all we are looking at a mix of some quite potent heat SURGES accompanied by some COOLER spells of weather is the most APT outlook for August, with a somewhat FAR NORTH or NORTH and SOUTH divide at times.”
However, mentions of a COLD summer from elsewhere are also somewhat false as the May to July period was much warmer than average and August is also likely to continue this trend as highlighted for the Mean Central England Temperature (CET) in the link below. Unfortunately, it has been a rather unsettled summer to date, but it has been far from cool and each month since May has registered well above the seasonal average temperatures – As indicated in our several month ahead seasonal forecasts for this period.
In addition to all this we are also expecting some further heat surges and Indian summer type weather throughout the upcoming autumn period, and in among some other weather types.
Indian Summer/Cold Autumn??? + Will We Get To See A Cold & Snowy Winter Later This Year?
Our NEW UK & Ireland Autumn and Winter 2016/17 Forecasts are also READILY AVAILABLE for further enhanced details + they include new confidence ratings on certain scenarios and month by month forecasts for Sep-Nov & Dec-Feb.. Also includes dates for potential stormy, mild, hot, cold and snowy periods for the upcoming Autumn/Winter @ http://www.exactaweather.com/subscribe-1.html
PLEASE NOTE that we are having some small technical PROBLEMS with the NEW Standard Plus+ weather forecast login area due to high member numbers and this will be rectified over the next few days. We will therefore still grant the £5 one year deal to those who have signed-up and until further notice (next few days ONLY) + this will also give you instant access to the Autumn and Winter 2016/17 reports. Your new username and passwords will arrive in your inbox shortly for new and existing subscribers (Please also check your JUNK/SPAM box).
UPDATE ADDED: Friday 5th August 2016 – James Madden (Added earlier to subscribers)
Our forecast for last summer fared reasonably well for overall accuracy (see below) - and although August wasn't as hot as we had expected, it was only the month of summer that came in above-average in terms of temperature (CET).
The cold and wet 2015 summer for the UK/Ireland + media articles from several months ahead with accurate descriptions from Exacta Weather:
The Met Office also admitted it had failed to predict the wash-out endured by Britain in the below article and stated that it was 'impossible' to predict.
Yet Another Mild Winter! - Review 2015/16
For the third consecutive year/winter we have now experienced yet another mild winter!
An easy way out would be for me to say that these things sometimes just cluster together in this fashion, which they do, or that it's just the weather. However, I feel it is important to cover what I feel has happened and where we are heading in the future after a review of our methodology.
The problem over the last few winters has been the lack of any sustained heights to support any periods of prolonged cold and snow. Take last year as an example (2014/15), which was almost a cert for a very cold and snowy one from ALL the early signals. In essence, high pressure in Greenland and the Azores has not been playing ball to give us more favourable winter conditions for prolonged cold and snow. We have also continued to see storm after storm, and so much so, that they are now being named due to their frequency. This is not something we expect everyone to understand or agree with - However, we will see a continuation of these storms for most of our upcoming winter periods, and whether it be mild or cold in terms of temperature (something we have always stated and forecast before they arrived each winter). However, when we do get any prolonged cold weather across our shores, large low pressure systems will spin off the east coast of the United States and head straight towards the UK/Ireland due to long term Gulf Stream changes. This is also where the extra moisture will come from to encase us in ice storms and excessive amounts of snow in future winter periods, and just as they did in December 2010 (Ice Age Circulation Patterns).
The Gulf Stream is not a constant, and when it alters at a state of such magnitude, it holds long term implications on our weather patterns. The exact weather patterns may stutter along the way, but our indications and other ample areas of science favour cooling (Ice Age circulation patterns) and not warming for this developing scenario. This is also initially and intrinsically brought about by low solar activity, and a lack of earth directed solar flares/Gulf Stream changes.
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf is one of the worlds leading climatologists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. Stefan also backs up our long term science on 'Gulf Stream changes' within the article below, and despite some short-range/seasonal inaccuracies from ourselves, the same article also features some largely based Exacta Weather science in relation to these Gulf Stream Changes and in terms of long-range climate forecasting (nothing to do with salinity in our science - more how the Gulf Stream is heated).
Stefan also works from the exact same office that Einstein developed relativity... and he also goes on to state the following about the Gulf Stream HERE:
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, said it has slowed by between 15 and 20 per cent. This has resulted in cooling equivalent to switching off a million power stations with possible catastrophic effects this winter. “There is more than a 99 per cent probability that this slowdown is unique over the period we looked at since 900 AD. “We conclude that the slowdown many have described is in fact already underway and it is outside of any natural variation.”
After further analysis of our short-range and seasonal forecasting for the last 3 winter periods, we must also accept some responsibility for underestimating solar activity levels during this 'transitional' period to a much quieter sun. Some unexpected peaks in solar activity have taken us by surprise in their overall strength, and despite a continuation in the lack of sunspots and their overall size. We do feel that these factors have altered the accuracy of our overall forecasts, but we can assure you that we are now moving away from this stronger part of the solar cycle. We should have also give more weighting to the El Nino conditions, and how they can vary and bring milder winter conditions to our shores.
Despite the milder winter we did have some shots of cold and success with snow dates, in particular, with the snow disaster that struck the United States. We have also had several weeks of cool-cold weather as the 'more dominant' weather pattern. This type of pattern arrived in the second half of February and reduced the mean CET for this particular month by over 3C within this period. This cool to cold weather also continued into the start of the meteorological spring to deliver a cold March, and wintry incursions have also continued well into April. We also expect some interesting developments in May - Although some warm to much warmer weather is also on the way, too.
SO HOW OFTEN CAN WE EXPECT A COLD WINTER THEN? WE'VE JUST HAD 3 CONSECUTIVE MILD ONES!
This is something that we have analysed repeatedly and for all our future winter forecasts we will be giving 2 possible outcomes with a percentage rating for each one to subscribers. This will be easier to manage and also more accurate due to the extra factors that we will be incorporating within the 2 outcomes. However, in the direction that we are heading in terms of solar activity at present, we can expect at least 70%+ of all our future winter periods to be cold/exceptionally cold and snowy (6-7 of the next 10 winter periods will be cold/snowy).
Further details will also be released on this and the new format in June/July within our Preliminary Autumn & Winter 2016/17 forecasts to subscribers.
To conclude; A recent scientific article within the Daily Mirror titled "A mini ice age is on its way and this is what the UK will look like" also heavily features Exacta Weather science and states the following:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, has previously said the UK should brace itself for colder winters from this year onwards.
He said: “This serious climate situation is also something that is unlikely to correct itself overnight as repeated analysis of past cycles and other contributing factors in relation to the current solar output and size/frequency of sunspots reveal to us quite conclusively that we are heading into something like a Maunder Minimum. "A time when the Thames used to freeze over regularly in London - or a fully blown ice age is inevitable in the coming years and decades.” Episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830.
WINTER 2015/16 REVIEW UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 10th April 2016 - James Madden