Snow Arrives On Cue + More Later This Week?
Despite the milder start to November it has recently turned much colder and more wintry for many parts of the UK and Ireland. Over the weekend saw snow showers developing in parts as far south as London.
Snow in parts of the south/London is something that we forecast with 80%+ confidence for this period in our 4-6 week ahead reports to subscribers and within various media articles from several weeks ahead (see last updates below).
Snow Pictures/Videos From The Weekend + London/Belfast Snow
After a cold start to Monday for many with a widespread overnight frost, it will begin to turn 'less cold' and temperatures will return to more seasonal values as winds veer in from a more southerly direction throughout the day. Unsettled weather and strong winds will then become an issue for northern and eastern parts of the country, in particular, throughout Tuesday, and despite the less colder conditions there will still be some wintry weather across the northern half of the country in the form of some occasional wintry showers at times. The unsettled weather and low pressure are likely to dominate proceedings for much of the week across the north and it will also be rather breezy for many by midweek, with the best of any finer and drier weather conditions being reserved for the south of the country.
As we head towards the end of the week and into next weekend there is the ever increasing risk for further snow as the weather reverts back to colder conditions once again. Many parts to the north and west of the country could see some significant snow developing within this period, in particular, across higher ground where at least a foot or two of snow could be dumped in places. However, this wintry blast is also likely to bring some potentially moderate to significant of falls of snow to some lower levels in parts of Scotland, Northern England and to parts of Northern Ireland, in particular, to more western areas of the UK. There is some scope for movement on this as the week progresses, but it could be another scenario that would bring the 'risk' of developing wintry showers widely across the country, even in some parts as far south as the Central/Southern England.
Looking a little further ahead and we are likely to see temperature swings continuing from near normal values to much colder conditions as we head into December. In addition to this we may also see a number of 'brief' but 'very mild' temperature spikes, in particular, in parts to the south of the UK and Ireland.
However, there are likely to be a number of quite potent wintry blasts in December that will take standard meteorology/TV forecasts by surprise within this period (potentially the coldest and snowiest spell in years), in particular, for two particular periods covered in the UK and Ireland subscribers and month ahead reports.
UPDATE ADDED: Monday 23rd November 2015 - James Madden (ADDED EARLIER TO SUBSCRIBERS)
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Here Comes Winter & Widespread Snow In November!
In addition to the wintry blast during the latter part of October more locations in the UK and Ireland experienced their first snow of this autumn/winter during the recent but brief incursion of colder air. Some reports of non-significant snow and light coverings were also received from some much lower levels of the UK and Ireland within this period + SNOW pictures in the links below:
However, the upcoming week will continue with the reversion back to mild weather conditions to begin with, and it will also be rather windy with periods of heavy rain for many as a series of weather fronts push in off the Atlantic. Some of these weather fronts will also turn wintry as they clash with cooler air further north throughout much of this week and it will feel cooler under the unsettled weather, in particular, towards the latter part of the week. Further south will be at risk of some heavy rain showers, and there is the additional risk for some of these to turn into thundery downpours at times, in particular, in many southern areas on Tuesday. Saturation problems from recent heavy rain could also contribute towards some additional flooding problems in some central and southern areas.
Please note that the European high and milder weather conditions that we have experienced throughout November to date were not favoured within our original long-range forecasts, and this is an error on our part that we will work on correcting in the future. The more dominant milder conditions have restricted the recent wintry blasts to certain areas, and they have also lacked any real severity or venim as of yet, but all that is about to change...
It is also important to remember that our long-range autumn forecast to subscribers also favoured the September-October period to be warmer than average, with a cold and snowy November to follow, in particular, within the SECOND half of the month (still available to view in subscribers section).
However, since before the start of the month we were in acknowledgement of the upcoming milder conditions during the first half of the month, but we continued to forewarn of some snow in places with a number of widespread snow events and major wintry blasts from mid-month onwards. We also forecast with 80%+ confidence that even parts of the south would be at risk of experiencing snow within this period, despite not one other forecaster or computer model showing anything of this nature in the whole WORLD.
Throughout Friday and into next weekend will see some exceptionally cold winds veering in from the north and spreading to the rest of the country to bring a major reduction in temperatures, and it will feel exceptionally bitter for all. In addition to this we will also see a persistent band of snow forming that will gradually work southwards across many parts of the country from Friday through to Sunday. On present indications this band of snow should pick up momentum throughout Friday evening and spread to many other parts throughout Saturday day/evening. However, we do need to allow for some deviation in exact timing between now and then, and some parts further south may have to wait until the early hours of Sunday or Sunday day before they see any snow falling.
Large swathes to the north, west and east of the country are likely to experience some potentially atrocious conditions from heavy snow/blizzards on present indications, whilst many lower levels in these parts will also see some heavy and accumulating snow within this period. In addition to this many central and southern areas are also at an increasing risk of some potentially heavy and lying snow as the tail end of this major snow band passes through. It really is a situation where literally anywhere in the country could be at the risk of seeing snow within this period, and even after the main band of snow has passed through the country, we will still see lingering snow showers in many coastal areas to the west and east of the country, with the additional risk of some further snow in southern areas during the early part of next week.
Conventional meteorology will begin to catch up and issue relevant snow warnings as the week progresses.
In addition to all the above information - we also appeared as SOLE contributors within the following Daily Mirror article on the 4th November, which stated the following:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said from mid-November we can expect significant changes as winds veer in from a much chillier northerly and easterly direction.
“These chilly winds will also be accompanied by some some significant snow across higher ground within this period, and we are also likely to see some wintry showers reaching some lower levels at times in parts of the north and east.
“It's likely to bring the first snow of the autumn for parts of the south and London Later in the month.”
UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 15th November 2015 - James Madden (Added earlier to subscribers)
Cold/Snow Inc South
Forecasting confidence considerably favours a much colder and more wintry weather pattern for many parts of the UK from mid-month onwards as winds begin to veer in from a much chillier northerly and easterly direction. However, we haven't seen the last of the 'MILD' and 'COLD' weather swings for this autumn/winter. Our subscribers 4 page PDF report for November also highlights when and where we expect these mild and cold swings to occur, as does the full and original winter report. The report also states when we expect the coldest periods to occur throughout this autumn/winter, so please don't assume we have forecast 'constant' cold when we see a return to milder weather conditions.
The following information was also released for free at an earlier date in reference to this and for public consumption to non-subscribers of Exacta Weather:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the winter outlook has worsened thanks to plunging Atlantic sea temperatures.
“This is of some real significance to us in terms of future weather patterns and this is also likely to result in a much colder than average November with the first significant snow of the year in parts of the north for the UK.
“There will also be some snow to much lower levels of the country at times within this period, and even parts of the SOUTH of the UK could see some early snow before we enter December this year.
“December in itself may then follow on with a rather mixed theme of COLDER and MILDER interludes before an increase in severity of some exceptional cold and snow in the final part of the month and for prolonged periods throughout January and into February due to prolonged blocking patterns that will refuse to shift.
OUR NOVEMBER 4 PAGE PDF FORECAST DETAILS also inc SNOW DATES in SOUTHERN ENGLAND/Capital In Nov 80%+ Confidence!!!
UPDATE ADDED: Sunday 1st November 2015 - James Madden (Added earlier to subscribers)
Exacta Weather have also forecast the following long-range forecasts with a very high success ratio to our subscribers from several months ahead this year:
The cold and wet summer for the UK & Ireland + media articles from several months ahead with accurate descriptions from Exacta Weather
The Met Office also admitted it had failed to predict the wash-out endured by Britain in the below article and stated that it was 'impossible' to predict.
We have also had a very good year scientifically for our scientific claims dating back to 2009 when global warming had a stronghold upon the scientific community. However, we are now finally being backed up by one of the worlds leading climatologists in the following largely Exacta Weather based article about the Gulf Stream that has received 250,000 likes on Facebook!
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany backs up our science within the above article, and he works from the exact same office that Einstein developed relativity... He also goes on to state the following about the Gulf Stream:
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, said it has slowed by between 15 and 20 per cent. This has resulted in cooling equivalent to switching off a million power stations with possible catastrophic effects this winter. “There is more than a 99 per cent probability that this slowdown is unique over the period we looked at since 900 AD. “We conclude that the slowdown many have described is in fact already underway and it is outside of any natural variation.”