We will finally see an improving theme throughout next week, and from around the early to middle part of the working week, we will see temperatures starting to rise above the seasonal average and with much drier conditions for many parts of the UK and Ireland.
Initially parts of eastern and central England and the Midlands could record the highest temperatures to begin with, and for in and around Tuesday to Wednesday could see temperatures nudging in excess of the 20 Celsius mark in these parts and with above average average temperatures starting to establish themselves elsewhere too. It is also plausible that the warmest day of the year could be breached once again within this developing period and as the chilly nights of late begin to dissipate.
However, towards the end of the working week and into next weekend, it is now showing some much stronger signals for high pressure to become more dominant and influential on our overall weather pattern within this developing period. This is then likely to bring at least several days of dry, sunny, and warm weather, with rising temperatures for many parts of the country from later next week and after some decent summery and quite warm conditions in the days beforehand.
At the very least, we could see temperatures ranging in the low to mid-20's quite widely from later next week and into early May, just in time for the bank holiday weekend on current indications. There is also the possibility of some even higher temperatures and a more prolonged warm to hot period than the current indications of just several days, depending on the exact developments, and the cancellation of the more southerly driven jet stream between now and then to bring some potentially hot conditions over a number of days in and around the first third of May.
Our several-day earlier projections and additional medium- to long-range updates also stated all of the following in reference to this and why there was a slight delay in its arrival date until this part of the forecasting period:
"Beyond the late April period and into early May, we will then see any rain or unsettled conditions becoming less of a feature as temperatures start to rise significantly across our shores over at least a several-day period. This could easily see maximum temperatures reaching into the mid- to high 20's quite widely in the best of the developing sunshine within this period."
"The third-party models do now appear to be in recognition of temperatures rising to above the seasonal average and to much warmer values within the period we have been opting for, but they are currently underestimating how warm it will become due to a developing and substantial area of high pressure that will push in and reside across our shores within this period."
"Unfortunately, these changes are slightly delayed from our original expectations and are largely in part due to the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events from earlier this year and how they can influence a cooler regime well into spring. Despite our expectations for a continuation of these cool to cold conditions up until around mid-spring from our original forecast projections and for which I highlighted these SSW events, it has simply overspent a little in terms of timing and exact arrival."
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More to follow on this shortly...
James Madden: Exacta Weather (Sunday 28th April 2024 @ 6:00am)
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